Populations and demographics

[Salem1]

Why did some regions remain at a quite low population for a long time and then skyrocket?
Why do some populations still remain low or very low today, when other populations have increased massively?
Why have these nations never really got a significant population increase?
What caused some nations to stagnate and others to accelerate? for example France used to have around twice the population of Russia, but today Russia has over twice the population of France.
How has for example India's population increased from roughly 200 million in 1850 to roughly 1 100 000 billions in 2009?

Feel free to add in any other information you have on population.

[Monarchist]

I can only speak for my area of expertise in history, and that is the Middle Ages! I apologize for being unable to answer your questions about Russia and France in the modern ages, but France in the Medieval era is a different story.

The most important factors in the European population explosion of the High Middle Ages (A.D. 955-1317, I reckon) were the horse-collar, deep soil plow, global warming, and crop rotation re-discovered from lost Roman mosaics and texts in the Holy Land.

The horse-collar was probably the most important, as it allowed horses to actually plow the fields. Before the horse-collar was re-introduced into Europe, Oxen were used to dig the fields for various crops, and they had their own special ox-collar. The problem with this is that Oxen are slow and rather stupid in comparison to the noble and gregarious beasts called horses. Horses were much shorter around A.D. 1000 thanks to breeding, but they were still too high to do the work of an Ox. Most importantly, the ox-collar, if put around a horse's neck so the horse could pull the plow the field, would strangle the poor horse. The invention of the horse-collar, which sat higher on the horse's neck and thus had no danger of choking it, allowed the faster and more efficient horse to take the place of oxen in fields. This, in turn, allowed crops to be sowed much, MUCH faster, and thus the population exploded with dozens of horse teams quickly plowing the fields.

Attached to the first point is the second. The deep-soil cutting plow itself was just as important as the horse-collar that allowed it to move. Original, Roman plows that had been inherited by the Europeans in the Dark Ages were meant for light Mediterranean soil. If you used a Roman plow on the Feudal European soils, it simply wouldn't cut into the dark and heavy sod, and nothing would be upturned. No seeding could take place with the Roman plow. Thus, the Europeans developed a plow, with the help of Arab texts and lost Roman ideas, that had very heavy and thick cutting bill. This new deep-soil plow really sliced into the thick European soil, allowing vegetables to be planted much deeper (something required for the colder European season) than before. Deeper vegetables means longer-lasting crops in Northern Europe, and also a much better ability to keep them ripe. Longer lasting crops means a longer lasting set of peoples.

Global warming, as much as it is reviled today, created an amazing climate in Europe. The Northern European plain (stretching across Holland, Germany, and northern Poland) was not at all warm by Roman standards (and thus the need for the deep-soil plow), but it was significantly warmer in the High Middle Ages than it is today. This was thanks, obviously, not to industrialization or CO2, but it was probably something to do with sun spots. It's naturally impossible to tell what caused medieval high period warming, but it sure helped the crops! More importantly, the medieval warm period allowed grape vines to be grown as far north as the English Midlands! This was an amazing thing for economies, as it created a gigantic boom in trade-able goods for several centuries. The warmer climate allowed greens to be planted and soiled much further north than had been possible, or would be possible again.

Crop rotation was a more ancient development, but it came as good news to the Feudal Europeans. Perhaps this ties into Russia, for it developed economically much later than the rest of Europe and thus was able to benefit. Crop rotation is the process of seeding different fields and lands with two or three differing crops, not just one! In the older medieval system before the population boom of 1000-1300, people didn't really rotate crops, the knowledge having been mostly lost after Rome fell. However, as time wore on, people re-invented the idea of not simply sewing cabbage in X, Y, and Z fields, but sewing cabbage in X, corn in Y, and tomatoes in Z. This really allowed the crops and vegetable varieties to skyrocket in number, and thus fed a gigantic number of new citizens, which fueled further demographic growth.

Unfortunately, declines in demographics came in the Late Middle Ages (1317/1346-1492 or so). This was mostly due to two major factors. Firstly, a gigantic famine ravaged Europe around 1317; the reason, oddly enough, was a sudden decrease in global temperatures for the period. The "Little Ice Age" began in that time and lasted for several centuries, and wine vines were no longer possible in Britain (This is why you get "Vine Street"s in Britain despite the lack of actual wine growers today), as well as many other crops in many other places. The famine was probably due to new pestilences brought by the Mongols and, soon after, Timurids, which allowed a giant influx of new crop-destroying species from Asia. Lastly, and most notably, the Black Death came and wiped out 1/3 of Europe. Thanks to the huge population decrease, fewer people remained to sew the fields, to pass on the knowledge of crop rotation, and to remember to use a horse-collar instead of an ox-collar.

The knowledge fell away for several decades as Europe desperately tried to re-populate itself, but the same tactics that had worked in the High Middle Ages were used again, gradually. The Renaissance saw another up-shot of demographics, at least in Europe, mostly thanks to a second re-invention of rotation, plows, collars, and a slight warming in temperature. We go through demographic cycles in our history, it seems.

[conon394]

The horse-collar was probably the most important, as it allowed horses to actually plow the fields. Before the horse-collar was re-introduced into Europe, Oxen were used to dig the fields for various crops, and they had their own special ox-collar. The problem with this is that Oxen are slow and rather stupid in comparison to the noble and gregarious beasts called horses. Horses were much shorter around A.D. 1000 thanks to breeding, but they were still too high to do the work of an Ox. Most importantly, the ox-collar, if put around a horse's neck so the horse could pull the plow the field, would strangle the poor horse. The invention of the horse-collar, which sat higher on the horse's neck and thus had no danger of choking it, allowed the faster and more efficient horse to take the place of oxen in fields. This, in turn, allowed crops to be sowed much, MUCH faster, and thus the population exploded with dozens of horse teams quickly plowing the fields.

Attached to the first point is the second. The deep-soil cutting plow itself was just as important as the horse-collar that allowed it to move. Original, Roman plows that had been inherited by the Europeans in the Dark Ages were meant for light Mediterranean soil. If you used a Roman plow on the Feudal European soils, it simply wouldn't cut into the dark and heavy sod, and nothing would be upturned. No seeding could take place with the Roman plow. Thus, the Europeans developed a plow, with the help of Arab texts and lost Roman ideas, that had very heavy and thick cutting bill. This new deep-soil plow really sliced into the thick European soil, allowing vegetables to be planted much deeper (something required for the colder European season) than before. Deeper vegetables means longer-lasting crops in Northern Europe, and also a much better ability to keep them ripe. Longer lasting crops means a longer lasting set of peoples.

Tisk tisk it’s sad to see this still making the rounds….


First the horse collar may have been an advance, but the ideal that the classical horse yokes choke the animal is pure myth based on defective work done more than 100 years ago.

In any case the use of Horse, mule or oxen for work is far more complex than just it collar - Certainly to a small farmer a ox is far easier to feed than one draft horse.

The Romans very much used a heavy plow in Northern Europe and never tried to use a scratch plow - The medieval plow has clear roots in Romans times. One might also point out the opposite is of course true using a heavy plow in the dry Mediterranean is just as silly as using a scratch plow in Germany.

[Monarchist]

Well, I stand corrected then. Thank you for that, and sorry for the misinformation!

[conon394]

Ahh now that’s just unfair – here I go posting an unsupported rant looking for a tiff and you reply all pleasantly…

My apologies, I tip my hat.

For a widely available web source on the points in question, this site is quite good (Certainly on the issue of horse harness and a bit on plows):
http://www.humanist.de/rome/rts/


For some published works that say much the same you can check out

Kevin Greene’s “Archeology of the Roman Economy”

And

“Agriculture in the Middle Ages : Technology, Practice, and Representation” (the section of the development and transition from Roman tech)

[Nikitn]

It is really simple. There are multiple stages in population growth.

Stage 1: Where it just keeps stabile. The sanitary conditions are so bad, that infant mortality is ridiculously high. At the same time, women must give birth to many children to survive. A stage one country were European pre 18th century countries and earlier. I don't think there are any Stage 1 countries in the world today.

Stage 2: When the sanitary conditions improve greatly, but the habit of giving many births remain. A stage 2 country can be a random central African country.

Stage 3: The situation stabilizes. Death rates are low, and birth rates start to sink. This can be countries like Brazil.

Stage 4: Now the situation is different. Both death rates and birth rates are low, so the population is ageing, and enjoys a long life expectancy. A country like this: USA.

Stage 5: The sanitary conditions are good, so the infant mortality rates are low. But the women choose to give less births due to new times and conditions. A country like this would be Belarus.
That's it in a nutshell. If you want to know more, just go ogle around.

[Monarchist]

(That's perfectly fine, conon394! I am always looking to have my historical knowledge questioned, challenged, and improved. My idea of the horse collar was based more on folk lore and old history than on proper citing of sources and research. I used my memory before I used my mind - a valuable lesson to learn!)

I'm glad that someone has asked a question about history that involves populations and demographic shifts. It's not really an issue which enters most peoples' minds these days. We always think of significant historical battles or epic military campaigns. Trade fairs, economics, and the demographics which are attached to these are just as singularly important.

[CiviC]

The irony with the French example is that after more then a century af demographic stagnation France is now one of few European countries with a positive natural demographic growth. It is estimated that at the current rate in year 2050 France will be more populated then Germany.

[dogukan]

let's bring in some science

a specie in a certain region grows in numbers according to the carrying capacity(which means the food and shelter in the area)...also rivalry between species can slow one down, and make it either extinct or emigrate. When carrying capacity for the specie is reached...emigration starts and population increase slows than and gets into pleteu phase.

So today, as majoirty of the pople can somehow be provided food and shelter they increase in numbers just like animals. HERE IS THE NEW PART- when you educate people about their responsibilities they don't reproduce. See Europe.