Insurgent Organization joins the ranks of those laying down arms in Iraq

[Farnan]

BAGHDAD — An extremist Shiite group thought responsible for the killing of five American soldiers in a bold raid south of Baghdad and the kidnapping of five British men has agreed to renounce violence, a government adviser said Monday.

The deal was reached during a weekend meeting between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and representatives of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, or League of the Righteous, a group the U.S. alleges is backed by Iran and refuses to adhere to a militia cease-fire.

The group promised to lay down its weapons and join the political process, according to government aide Sami al-Askari, who was at the meeting. In return, al-Maliki promised to seek the release of the detainees in U.S. custody, al-Askari said.

The deal comes as the Shiite-led Iraqi government moves increasingly to assert its sovereignty and solidify its power base ahead of national elections scheduled for January. The U.S. military also has seen its influence wane as it begins to pull back its troops with plans for a full withdrawal by the end of 2011.

The transformation of the remaining Shiite militant groups into political organizations would be a significant development for Iraq as it prepares for the end of the U.S. military role. It also could boost Tehran's leverage in the neighboring country, although Iran's government denies any links to Shiite extremists in Iraq.

http://armytimes.com/news/2009/08/ap_shiite_080309/

Good news, the cycle of peace is continuing. Hopefully the other hold outs join this process.

[nopasties]

Good News

[Sphere]

The foreseeable problem isn't really with Shia militia's, who in general would be supportive of the current Shia run government. They might cause some rumbling within the shia parties, but that wouldn't jeopardize the stability of the government. It is the Sunni militia's, aka the Sons of Iraq and the awakening councils that govern them that are the big concern. If they feel like the Shia run government in bahgdad is shutting them out, they could indeed reniew the civil war and re-inlist Al-Qaida as an ally agaisnt the government.

[Tiberios]

Yes good news indeed. Things are starting look brigther down there.

[Farnan]

The foreseeable problem isn't really with Shia militia's, who in general would be supportive of the current Shia run government. They might cause some rumbling within the shia parties, but that wouldn't jeopardize the stability of the government. It is the Sunni militia's, aka the Sons of Iraq and the awakening councils that govern them that are the big concern. If they feel like the Shia run government in bahgdad is shutting them out, they could indeed reniew the civil war and re-inlist Al-Qaida as an ally agaisnt the government.

Actually the Shia militias do threaten stability by threatening the Sunni population.

And the Sunni Awakening Councils have gone far beyond the point they can easily return to the weapon. They are accountable to their people who are liking the peace that happens right now. They are not going to want to return to the time of violence unless there is a major justification. Last time it was a belief that the Shi'ites with American help were going to turn the Sunnis into second class citizens and/or commit genocide against them and that fighting the government was the only way to prevent that and AQI were their only allies. And the sectarian Shia militias fueled their movement. Right now that fear doesn't exist and they know that violence won't help them achieve their goals of power. Thus it will take more than just not being paid to go back to an insurgency (though crime is an option or corruption), but rather a fear of complete loss where violence is their only option. Hence AQI's remnants trying to get the Shia to fight the Sunnis again.

Also, Maliki seems to want to include Sunni allies in his coalition, and with the Shia split how they are the Sunnis may be the king makers.

[over-man]

We can't bribe them forever. And when the bribes stop they will only have more funds with which to kill and maim.

[Heinz Guderian]

We can't bribe them forever. And when the bribes stop they will only have more funds with which to kill and maim.

mmm. I dont know what you mean by "bribes" sir. Could you expand a bit more on this? I thought the Iraqi government would be paying any wages/salaries.

[Farnan]

We can't bribe them forever. And when the bribes stop they will only have more funds with which to kill and maim.

The idea of it being a bribe is so over simplifying its not funny...

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/200...tribal-revolt/

And you act like these people are video game characters. Very few people live with the goal of just killing and maiming people for fun and those people are called psychopaths.

[over-man]

The idea of it being a bribe is so over simplifying its not funny...

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/200...tribal-revolt/

And you act like these people are video game characters. Very few people live with the goal of just killing and maiming people for fun and those people are called psychopaths.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle2413200.ece

They're not killing for 'fun'. They're killing for their tribe. And it will be a cold day in hell before the people of Iraq put country ahead of tribe.

[Farnan]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle2413200.ece

They're not killing for 'fun'. They're killing for their tribe. And it will be a cold day in hell before the people of Iraq put country ahead of tribe.

I don't know, I'll trust Dr. Kilcullen 365 days of the year over a simple journalist. Especially as Dr. Kilcullen has been proven right time and time again. Especially as neither are even regional experts for the newspapers.

And they're not going to kill for their tribe because its not in the tribes interest to kill anybody. Peace is in their interest as 1) their family members aren't dying, and 2) their business isn't disrupted. Further tribes contain Sunnis and Shia.

[over-man]

So....what if their tribe goes along with the political process...

I don't know, I'll trust Dr. Kilcullen 365 days of the year over a simple journalist. Especially as Dr. Kilcullen has been proven right time and time again.

And they're not going to kill for their tribe because its not in the tribes interest to kill anybody. Peace is in their interest as 1) their family members aren't dying, and 2) their business isn't disrupted. Further tribes contain Sunnis and Shia.

Have you forgotten? We brought democracy to Iraq.

Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch.

Ben Franklin

Guess what? The two wolves are shias, and the sunnis aren't going to go down without a fight.

[s.rwitt]

So....what if their tribe goes along with the political process...

[s.rwitt]

Guess what? The two wolves are shias, and the sunnis aren't going to go down without a fight.

Well the state of Iraq since the surge proves you wrong. Quite easily.

[Farnan]

Well the state of Iraq since the surge proves you wrong. Quite easily.

Some people are still living in 2006 with regards to Iraq. They don't realize things change.

[over-man]

Some people are still living in 2006 with regards to Iraq. They don't realize things change.

Yeah, some of us don't change our understanding of 3000 years of middle eastern bloodshed based on 3 years of relative calm. Guilty as charged.

[Farnan]

Yeah, some of us don't change our understanding of 3000 years of middle eastern bloodshed based on 3 years of relative calm. Guilty as charged.

Umm....

Just so you know you should generally ignore talking heads and wait to learn from experts before you claim the Sunni/Shi'ite fight in 3000 years old (just so you know Islam is only 1400 years old, and the modern Sunni/Shi'ite conflict in Iraq is less than 8 years old).

Though there was some conflict since Saddam took over but it was low level stuff and mostly caused by his favoring of the Sunnis more than hatred of Sunnis for Shi'ites. Actually before the war there was a large amount of intermarriage, which is returning today: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...W10kgD99SS5180

[over-man]

Umm....

Just so you know you should generally ignore talking heads and wait to learn from experts before you claim the Sunni/Shi'ite fight in 3000 years old (just so you know Islam is only 1400 years old, and the Sunni/Shi'ite conflict in Iraq is less than 8 years old).

Did I say that?

[Farnan]

Did I say that?

Yeah, some of us don't change our understanding of 3000 years of middle eastern bloodshed based on 3 years of relative calm. Guilty as charged.

Yes, unless you think that the Sunnis are Babylonians and the Shi'ite Sumarians...

[over-man]

Yes, unless you think that the Sunnis are Babylonians and the Shi'ite Sumarians...

Middle easterners have always been by-and-large tribalist in nature, and while they may now be muslims they are still tribalists.

[nopasties]

The insurgency was the fluke there, uber