A new Seven Pillars of Wisdom? Or enlisting the Pushtan tribes to fight the Taliban.

[Farnan]

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/jou.../278-green.pdf

Interesting article.

I'm neither endorsing nor condemning the article yet. Need time to think on it.

[Wilder]

Interesting find. I'm in the same boat as you. I'm all for giving the Taliban a good thrashing, but there is a long tradition of unintended consequences from backing any given horse up in Afghanistan.

[Burnum]

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/jou.../278-green.pdf

Interesting article.

I'm neither endorsing nor condemning the article yet. Need time to think on it.

Because History show that really works in Afghanistan. The Allies in Afghanistan should be destroying the traditional tribal structure and certainly, discouraging pushtanwali, which often Impede the Allies affect on the region.

[Pious Agnost]

They'll love that

[The Noble Lord]

Pashtuns will never fight on the side of the foreigners, some will of course be hired and some will support different parties and such but majority of Pashtuns will always work on how to eject the foreign forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan. They were always like that, they can be occupied and dominated but never defeated and eventualy they will overcome and succedd. That is the nature of being Pashtun.
The key to "winning" the Pashtuns over is to give them more power and not just puppet power and to slowly withdraw ISAF forces from the provinces.

[Farnan]

Pashtuns will never fight on the side of the foreigners, some will of course be hired and some will support different parties and such but majority of Pashtuns will always work on how to eject the foreign forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan. They were always like that, they can be occupied and dominated but never defeated and eventualy they will overcome and succedd. That is the nature of being Pashtun.
The key to "winning" the Pashtuns over is to give them more power and not just puppet power and to slowly withdraw ISAF forces from the provinces.

Ummm...

They fought for the Taliban (who were always known as Pakistani and then Al Qaeda puppets), others served the different Islamic kingdoms that ruled Afghanistan, and others have served the British. Pashtun tribes will fight alongside whatever power is most in their benefit. Even now some tribes side with the US, especially in Kunar Province.

[The Noble Lord]

Ummm...

They fought for the Taliban (who were always known as Pakistani and then Al Qaeda puppets)

In all honesty Taliban were not Pakistani puppets, of course they were supported by the Pakistan and Pakistan's ISI and many of them came from madrassas in Pakistan. They were religious students who were Pashtuns, and Afghan refugees, and border area Pashtuns for whom only possible education was in madrassa to study Koran. Taliban were Pashtun fundamentalist militia and it contained students from the madrassas and members of Hekmatyar's Hezbi-Islami Pashtun Islamist party.

others served the different Islamic kingdoms that ruled Afghanistan, and others have served the British.

Pashtuns founded the modern Afghanistan and have been ruling it ever since, even before that the powerful invaders like the Mongols were unable to subjugate them, and Saffavids and Moghuls tried to conquer them on numerous occasions fut failed each time.

Pashtun tribes will fight alongside whatever power is most in their benefit. Even now some tribes side with the US, especially in Kunar Province.

Some Pashtuns can be hired as I said but their loyalty to their employer is "thin as spiders web" according to the great player of the great game Sir Alexander Burnes. Eventually they will turn on you and you will be annihilated. Same thing is constantly repeating itself, and without the Pashtun support there will be no peace in Afghanistan!

[Farnan]

In all honesty Taliban were not Pakistani puppets, of course they were supported by the Pakistan and Pakistan's ISI and many of them came from madrassas in Pakistan the religious students were Pashtuns who were Afghans refugees and border area Pashtuns for whom only possible educaiton was in madrassa to study Koran. Taliban were Pashtun fundamentalist militia and it contained students form the madrassas and memebers of Hekmatya's Hezbi-Islami Pashtun Islamist party.

They contained 25,000 Pakistani Agents, and completed operations on behalf of the Pakistani government, till they became puppets of Al Qaeda. Read Ahmed Rashid.

Pashtuns founded the modern Afghanistan and have been ruling it ever since, even before that the powerfull invadors like the Mongols were unable to subjugate them, and Saffavids and Moghuls tried to conquer them on numerous occasiions fut failed each time.

They did in the 18th Century but before then worked for the Saffavids, and the prior empires. The whole concept of super xenophobia is a myth about Afghanistan. Other Pashtuns worked for the Pakistani government (which is a foreign government to the Pashtuns of Pakistan). Read Ahmed Rashid.

Some Pashtuns can be hired as I said but their loyalty to their employer is "thin as spiders web" according to the great player of the great game Sir Alexander Burnes. Eventualy they will turn on you and you will be anihiliated. Same thing is constantly repeating itself, and without the Pashtun support there will be no peace in Afghanistan!

Hired is not the the right word, they aren't paid. They will serve their interest. The Pashtun tribal politics are the eptimone of Real Politik. They'll work with the Taliban when the Taliban follow their interest, and the ANG/ISAF when it is in their interest. Anyways the government of A-Stan is Pashtun dominated, according to Mordred though all of one tribal group which pisses off the other tribal group.

[Da Skinna]

I think Afghanistan and Iraq have marked a new turn in our warfare. We now have to reach out to the local population in ways we never did or could before. Without the people's support, their tacit understanding of information flow and their own interests, these two wars would have been very different, and the reverse is true if America was never able to bribe the tribes in Iraq.

[Farnan]

I think Afghanistan and Iraq have marked a new turn in our warfare. We now have to reach out to the local population in ways we never did or could before. Without the people's support, their tacit understanding of information flow and their own interests, these two wars would have been very different, and the reverse is true if America was never able to bribe the tribes in Iraq.

We didn't bribe the tribes in Iraq. They came to the US looking for US support, not the other way around. Al Qaeda in Iraq can be thanked for the tribes switching sides...

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/200...tribal-revolt/ (article is by Dr. Kilcullen, an expert on Tribal Politics and counterinsurgency in tribal societies, along with a critic of the Bush Administration and the concept of a military solution to terrorism)

The whole idea it was a bribe is the result of clueless talking heads with an agenda.

[Gumpfendorfer]

Anyways the government of A-Stan is Pashtun dominated, according to Mordred though all of one tribal group which pisses off the other tribal group.

Well it's mixed, the main factions dominating the Karzai government are the Popolzai, the Tajiks, elements of the Northern Alliance backing Fahim, Dostum and his commanders, other Pashtun factions include Sayaf, but he always fought on the side of Rabbani and even some Hizbi Islami. A lot of the Pashtun fighting on the side of Rabbani were rewarded with a post in the government, or simply employed themselves in 2001 -quite easy if you ride around in a tank. The Northern Alliance has split, though individually they and their friends have a far too large hold on the economy as well.

The Taliban were a mixed Pashtun movement at the beginning . Specially the Duranni, the royal family of the country -Karzai is one them- did not want to recognize the Durand Line as Pakistan demanded later on in exchange for support. Pakistan then started pushing Mullah Omar to get rid of the Karzai faction, Think he was arrested but escaped, his father I think died. Mullah Omar represents the Ghilzai faction who have always been at odds with the Duranni over who controls the country. Most of the Durrani's were pushed out, last ones in changed sides in 2001. Under Karzai the Ghilzai have been pushed out of Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, those are their main provinces. That's the reason the Taliban are so successful. This isn't about religion, this is about who controls the economy in the South. And that's also the reason why Pakistan still backs Mullah Omar.

So far Karzai has managed to buy himself a lot of support throughout the country, in Urzugan there are already indications that the elections will be rigged on a rather grand scale. We'll see how it goes. Problem in Afghanistan is -if you let one faction in, by default the 'other faction' is going to get pissed.

Back to the plan - Rushed through it - very detailed, they are aware of all the dangers, on paper it looks good.

Forgot about the payment, that should be done hands on by NATO. Right now my country hands over the money meant for payment of police in Uruzgan and military to the government in Kabul. With every transaction money gets lost, salaries in Uruzgan have not been paid at all in the last 4 months, also from teachers, doctors, etc.

In the short term it might ease the pain of the corrupt government and decentralize some of the issues. That's good. In the long term it undermines the government itself.

And whether it is 'Afghan proof' in the sense of waterproof remains to be seen, the corruption is so rampant now, sort of blocked that out of my system, wasn't funny at all and never so bad up till now. Afghans are masters of twisting things in their favour. That's why I like them so much.

By the way Farnan....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broccoli

[Farnan]

Broccoli is not bad if you add cheese.

And you're thinking what I was thinking on that, however is it worth endangering the long term for the short term gain in security?

On one aspect it seems like a great gamble, if it works we can use the security to buy breathing room to reform the ANG and then put the tribes back under the ANG, if it doesn't work we can recreate the FATA but in A-Stan.

[Gumpfendorfer]

Altered my post last a bit

Broccoli is not bad if you add cheese.

Yuk, no other word to describe it. Stir fry!

And you're thinking what I was thinking on that, however is it worth endangering the long term for the short term gain in security?

What esle do you got, McChrystal's aide said they would need 300.000 men, you don't get them ever -finally someone telling the hard truth.

On one aspect it seems like a great gamble, if it works we can use the security to buy breathing room to reform the ANG and then put the tribes back under the ANG, if it doesn't work we can recreate the FATA but in A-Stan.

Forget about creating another FATA, if it blows back, it'll mean total collapse of the central government.

[Babur]

Saffavids tried to buy them and to convert them into Shia Islam and Pashtuns rebelled under Mirvais Khan Hotaki and advanced all the way to Isfahan and destroyed the Saffavid Empire. Same with the Moghuls and all the others. Later when British came to the scene, of course they were able to hire some Pashtuns tribes and some leaders like Shah Suja whom they installed briefly in Kabul as their puppet king, but it was all short-lived and as I said you can hire them briefly but you can't buy them. British and Russians tried during the course of 19th Century especially during the Great Game and they both failed miserably. At the end they agreed to leave Afghanistan as a buffer state and that's how it was until late 70s.

You're referring to the battle in 1722 between the Safavids and Afghans which caused the collapse of the dynasty right?

Looking back a bit further, it is interesting that in the Maasir-i-Alamgiri, there is a mention of a Yusufzai uprising:

On Thursday 2nd May 1667 (18th Zil) Q.Shamshir Khan after crossing the river Nilab, came towards Attock, and entered the enemy's territory on the other side of the river opposite the Yusufzai territory. The enemy went away to the hills and waited for an opportunity.......Muhammed Amin Khan after arriving in the Afghan country harried and desolated their homes as far as possible