Afghan Presidential Elections

[Farnan]

Besides Hamid Karzai, the current president, the other candidates are:

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah - A Panshiri Tajik (he is half-Pashtun, but that is irrelevant in Afghan eyes) and former aide of Mossaud. Seems to want some good reforms, but his status as a Panshiri may alienate Pashtuns should he win.

Ramazan Bashardost - Not sure his chances, coming from Ghazni and being Hazari.

Syed Jalal - Can't find any info on him...

Ashraf Ghani - Member of the Rome Group, former Mujahadeen fighter, and good economic background. He is a financial genius, and if it wasn't for internal politics (he didn't like warlords and he ruffled feathers with his plans) he could have greatly improved Afghanistan's position. Ideal president.

Shahla Atta - She has no chance.

Abdul Rocketti - Taliban Politician

Shanawazi Tani - Former Afghan Communist, Hekmatyar supporter and Taliban supporter...

Abdul Jabar Sabet - Former Hekmatyar Aide...

Mirwais Yasini - Parliamentary Leader, former social activist.

Muhammad Akbarbai - Little info on him it seems.

Abdul Latif Pedram - Small term politician...

http://www.aopnews.com/lotw/elections2009.shtml

[Каие]

Karzai will win. No one can afford to have anyone else.

[Farnan]

Ghani would be far better though, for everyone. He is a financial genius and ran the Finance Ministry well. He was good with NGOs, not anti-NATO, was never a warlord. He's also a Pushtan.

He has connections with Russia, the US and the World Bank. If it wasn't for internal politics forcing him out of office Afghanistan wouldn't have nearly the issues it does now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashraf_Ghani

[Каие]

I certainly like the look of him, but how sophisticated are Afghan elections going to be? Not very I predict, this is no Iraq. Karzai is corrupt, this election will be decided, not on merit, but on corruption.

[Tajir]

Wow, this current election is so parallel to the one held in Somalia after the ousting of the Islamist rulers from the capital. To no ones surprise and everyones relief, an Islamist politician in-exile was elected leader. This was even ideal for non-Islamists since he was expected to heal rifts. The problem was that it drew the camps further apart and he was labeled a greater threat than the secular transitional government before him and brought on a bigger backlash than against the warlords.

Now, had I not seen the situation in Somalia, Id say the Taliban politician is the best chance at reconciliation. Now I see there is no real option besides Taliban rule.

But really, despite all this, can we really say this government has a chance against the Taliban once foreign troops are out?

This is the same scenario as Somalia in so many ways, many dissident elite and warlords fighting for a country theyve abandoned long ago. Who will protect them? What army of their own do they have? Obviously the govt soldiers have no loyalty to them and will become apparent once fighting becomes direct with the Taliban. Those are the important inquiries. This government wont work until Afghans choose leaders among their own.

[Treize]

I certainly like the look of him, but how sophisticated are Afghan elections going to be? Not very I predict, this is no Iraq. Karzai is corrupt, this election will be decided, not on merit, but on corruption.

And we shall keep him in power and opress his people for him.

Really, Afghanistan must become a secular state or we must leave and let the Taliban take over, they love a theocracy anyway.

[ShADoW]

lol Tani is a communist supporting Taliban? Thats funny.
Ghani looks interesting.

[Farnan]

lol Tani is a communist supporting Taliban? Thats funny.
Ghani looks interesting.

In Afghanistan its not uncommon for people to switch parties depending on whose winning. Self-Interest beats ideology.

And Taijar - The Taliban have little popularity and are utterly despised anywhere but the Pushtan belt (where they have some support, but still a minority of the population). Should the Afghan government fall it would not result in Taliban control, but a return to the Anarchy of 1992-1996, and the Taliban won't be able to reunite the disparate elements to take control.

[Heinz Guderian]

Should the Afghan government fall it would not result in Taliban control, but a return to the Anarchy of 1992-1996, and the Taliban won't be able to reunite the disparate elements to take control.

The anarchy and lack of central government were exactly the right conditions for the Taliban to emerge and restore order. Can it not feasibly happen again?

[Farnan]

The anarchy and lack of central government were exactly the right conditions for the Taliban to emerge and restore order. Can it not feasibly happen again?

No, not the Taliban. They gained support since they brought local peace and the people didn't know what they'd do when they took over and started governing. Now they know its unlikely they will come back as the ruling power...

However, doesn't say that a group just as bad can't take over like the Taliban did.

(Also the anarchy will destabilize the region, and the Taliban will control parts of Afghanistan such as Helmand.)

[Tajir]

I dont get where you [Farnan] get idea that the Taliban has weakened. Werent they knocking on the doorsteps of Islamabad a few months ago? Im confident they werent that organized and well-armed during their first seige of Kabul. The Taliban now also have a huge base from which to recruit from and transport equipment in Pakistan.

[Heinz Guderian]

No, not the Taliban. They gained support since they brought local peace and the people didn't know what they'd do when they took over and started governing. Now they know its unlikely they will come back as the ruling power...

However, doesn't say that a group just as bad can't take over like the Taliban did.

(Also the anarchy will destabilize the region, and the Taliban will control parts of Afghanistan such as Helmand.)

Well thats how it started back in the 1990s. The Pashtun Taliban took over in the south and made some deals with fellow Pashtun neighbours. Then they moved on Kabul with the support of more Pashtuns, took it and pushed the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazarans north. A secular Pashtun (who is not on the US payroll) would rather support a Pashtun warlord than any of the other three. Its (Pashtun as well as the others) a tribal patriachical segmentary lineage society and will continue to be so. Ethnic divisions. Nothing to do with religion. It would be easier to predict if it was, but its not.

The only time religion comes into play is the Sunni Uzb, Taj and Pash and Shia Hazs.

[Burnum]

I am of the opinion that, because of the extremely tribal and Rural Pushtun society, democracy can't work. A benevolent dictator or a Moderate Taliban would do better.

I thought Alexander married an Afghan? A Bactrian, anyway, which was Afghanistan at the time? It was an alliance, if anything.

No, Alexander conquered Afghanistan. It took him awhile though, In six months Alexander conquered the Persian Empire. It took him three years too conquer Afghanistan. It says something, when even Alexander the Great was taken aback by the Courage and the Will of the people.

[mrmouth]

I am of the opinion that, because of the extremely tribal and Rural Pushtun society, democracy can't work. A benevolent dictator or a Moderate Taliban would do better.

When we talk of ultimate success in A-stan, you are talking many, many decades. Maybe not even in our lifetimes. And nobody knows what it will look like. The one thing I know, is that the longer we pressure the Taliban, and the longer we (NATO) are a factor, is the longer they must shift their tactics to the point we create divisions of thinking, beyond those that are occurring within Pakistan. It isnt widely reported, but they are killing a steady stream of civilians.

To play off of that, will be much harder than it was in Iraq, because of the tribal society within A-stan. But over time, likely a long, long time, once we bring a more fairly modern lifestyle, history has shown, that the tribal influence diminishes.

So many educated people have written books on this, and Iraq. Sometimes, it plays out a lot more simply, than these people think.

[Каие]

I am of the opinion that, because of the extremely tribal and Rural Pushtun society, democracy can't work. A benevolent dictator or a Moderate Taliban would do better.



No, Alexander conquered Afghanistan. It took him awhile though, In six months Alexander conquered the Persian Empire. It took him three years too conquer Afghanistan. It says something, when even Alexander the Great was taken aback by the Courage and the Will of the people.

Anyone can conquer Afghanistan, it's holding that is the hard bit.

[Farnan]

Anyone can conquer Afghanistan, it's holding that is the hard bit.

His descendants held it for over 200 years.

[Babur]

His descendants held it for over 200 years.

The Timurids held parts of Afghanistan for 100 years too,they turned Herat into a great center of Persian culture.

[Alsatian]

Would it be untrue for me to say that whoever the US wants in power will come to power?

[Dr. Jones]

I have to thank Farnan and heinz for their debate. Im really interested in Afghanistan and you guys now alot. So thanks for sharing you knowledge
I have to wait for German sources who cover the elections in detail, so I can make my own opinion.

[Gumpfendorfer]

When we talk of ultimate success in A-stan, you are talking many, many decades. Maybe not even in our lifetimes. And nobody knows what it will look like. The one thing I know, is that the longer we pressure the Taliban, and the longer we (NATO) are a factor, is the longer they must shift their tactics to the point we create divisions of thinking, beyond those that are occurring within Pakistan. It isnt widely reported, but they are killing a steady stream of civilians.

To play off of that, will be much harder than it was in Iraq, because of the tribal society within A-stan. But over time, likely a long, long time, once we bring a more fairly modern lifestyle, history has shown, that the tribal influence diminishes.

So many educated people have written books on this, and Iraq. Sometimes, it plays out a lot more simply, than these people think.

We'll see how it goes, there is a pretty good chance the Taliban screw up themselves by being far too brutal. Although they've now handed out a manual to all fighters to respect the civilian population.

The change within Afghan society might come sooner then we'll all think. Internet and mobile phones, in close contact with the diaspora are changing things fast. I see the glimpse of a new generation of people in their late 20ties early 30ties willing to make an effort to change the way things are run in Afghanistan. Help that generation into decision making positions and it will go a lot faster. We need to create enough space for them.

The real big question is whether there is going to be enough economic growth to counter the massive population growth -population will triple in less than two decades- combined with climate change hitting the country, it looks bad. The North is already affected very bad due to a combination of fast growth of the population -it doubled in 10 years time- deforestation, overgrazing, erosion, glaciers melting, all causing severe drought or floods, with little normal weather in between. You're almost up to a point where it seems better to start relocating the most vulnerable villages to other locations. Given the lack of available lands it's difficult. It will prove the most important factor on whether Afghanistan will stabilize or not.