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    Denny Crane!'s Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Reconciling the crazy and the right

    VP Biden: 'We Misread the Economy' and Other Lies

    by Thomas R. Eddlem
    by Tom R. Eddlem





    Asked by This Week’s George Stephanopoulos about the Obama Administration’s terrible economic prognostications in advance of passage of the $787 billion “stimulus” spending bill back in February, Vice President Joe Biden regurgitated a familiar talking point:

    Stephanopoulos: While we've been here, some pretty grim job numbers back at home – 9.5 percent unemployment in June, the worst numbers in 26 years. How do you explain that? Because when the president and you all were selling the stimulus package, you predicted at the beginning that, to get this package in place, unemployment will peak at about 8 percent. So, either you misread the economy, or the stimulus package is too slow and too small.

    Biden: The truth is, we and everyone else misread the economy.

    Of course, if you eliminate the “and everyone else” from that sentence, he’s simply stating the painfully obvious. The only appropriate response to such a sentence is a sarcastic: DUHH!!!


    The “and everyone else” part is the big, well-rehearsed lie. There were plenty of people who predicted a severe recession well in advance of Obama’s bad predictions. Representative Ron Paul predicted the housing bubble would result in a crash, writing in 2002 that “like all artificially-created bubbles, the boom in housing prices cannot last forever.… Perhaps the Federal Reserve can stave off the day of reckoning by purchasing GSE debt and pumping liquidity into the housing market, but this cannot hold off the inevitable drop in the housing market forever. In fact, postponing the necessary but painful market corrections will only deepen the inevitable fall. The more people invested in the market, the greater the effects across the economy when the bubble bursts.”

    Peter Schiff, the economic adviser for Rep. Paul’s presidential campaign, predicted the crash and the severity of the crash years in advance in a series of television interviews that today are compiled into a series of “Peter Schiff was right” videos on YouTube that have garnered millions of views. (Perhaps Biden is unfamiliar with YouTube?) Legendary investor Jim Rogers predicted in January 2008: “We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we've had since the Second World War. It's not a good scene.”

    But under the Washington idea of “everyone,” people who follow the U.S. Constitution and understand the Austrian school of economics don’t count. The reality is that dozens of Austrian school economists (as well as a few from other economic schools) predicted the recession with astonishing precision, but according to the Washington view, only people who follow the erroneous philosophy of John Maynard Keynes count.


    Obama’s economic advisers predicted back in February that Americans would experience no more than eight percent unemployment with passage of the “stimulus” and up to nine percent unemployment without it. The rate is currently 9.5 percent and climbing five months after passage of the stimulus bill. Biden tried to justify the Obama administration’s awful economic prognoses as simply working off “consensus” figures:

    The figures we worked off of in January were the consensus figures and most of the blue chip indexes out there.… And so the truth is, there was a misreading of just how bad an economy we inherited.

    But the Obama-Biden ticket is still following the prescription filled out by the economic witch-doctors who didn’t know what they were talking about five months ago, and they’re still ignoring the free-market economists who were right all along:

    Biden: “So the second question becomes, did the economic package we put in place, including the Recovery Act, is it the right package given the circumstances we're in? And we believe it is the right package given the circumstances we're in. We misread how bad the economy was, but we are now only about 120 days into the recovery package. The truth of the matter was, no one anticipated, no one expected that that recovery package would in fact be in a position at this point of having to distribute the bulk of money.”
    Stephanopoulos: “No, but a lot of people were saying that you needed to do something bigger and bolder then, including the economist Paul Krugman. He's saying — right now he's saying the same thing again — don't wait. You need a second stimulus, you need it now.”

    Biden: “Look, what we have to do now is we have to properly, adequately, transparently and effectively spend out the $787 billion. “

    Biden also added in another falsehood in the July 5 interview on ABC-TV’s This Week, stressing that “We've given a tax cut to 95 percent of the people who get a pay stub. They have somewhere — $60 bucks a month out there that's going into the economy.” That’s only true if the “people” are non-smokers. Smokers have seen a huge tax increase. Moreover, the Obama administration has heavily pushed a huge $840 billion tax increase bill under the “cap-and-trade” legislation that is before the U.S. Senate right now. Additionally, the Obama administration is said to be considering proposals for a tax increase to pay for its healthcare program.

    Barack Obama promised no new taxes on 95 percent of Americans when he was campaigning for office last year, and within a month of attaining office delivered a tax increase on many Americans. So perhaps it is not surprising to see Vice President Biden tell George Stephanopoulos that “we and everyone else misread the economy.” When truth doesn’t matter on one issue, why should it matter on others?

    So this is just a quick question to socialists and perhaps those with a pathological hatred of libertarians and free market advocates. Considering they have been right on pretty much everything to do with the economy why not treat them like an idiot savante, despise them as you will but hand them your 2+2's and get the right answers. You can still despise them and deride them but perhaps if we listen to their warnings and follow their advice in some ways we might end up with a bit less poverty.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by Seneca View Post
    So this is just a quick question to socialists and perhaps those with a pathological hatred of libertarians and free market advocates. Considering they have been right on pretty much everything to do with the economy why not treat them like an idiot savante, despise them as you will but hand them your 2+2's and get the right answers. You can still despise them and deride them but perhaps if we listen to their warnings and follow their advice in some ways we might end up with a bit less poverty.
    Ever come across evidence that the $1.35trillion tax cut in 2001 worked. I won't defend Obama and his stupid plan but I neve came across evidence that any big stimulus or tax cut lately has done much but pander to political interests.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by nopasties View Post
    Ever come across evidence that the $1.35trillion tax cut in 2001 worked. I won't defend Obama and his stupid plan but I neve came across evidence that any big stimulus or tax cut lately has done much but pander to political interests.
    And that is why we need an unchangeable tax rate(s) and pay it ourselves rather than never seeing the money. Maybe then the lower classes will care how it is being spent.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by nopasties View Post
    Ever come across evidence that the $1.35trillion tax cut in 2001 worked. I won't defend Obama and his stupid plan but I neve came across evidence that any big stimulus or tax cut lately has done much but pander to political interests.
    Guess what, the Bush tax cuts ended up bringing in more revenue than before, as the lightened burden allowed for businesses to grow more and it gave the government more variables to tax.
    http://www.heritage.org/research/taxes/bg2001.cfm

    Problem is spending grew by a monstrous amount during this time too and the deficits acted against the prosperity brought by the cuts.

    @ Seneca
    However don't expect the general government opinion to change much as it's mistakes will only be admitted well after this recession, and miraculously it will end up being blamed on the free market, yet again, and the "wrong" kind of state interventions 1930's style.
    Last edited by BNS; July 10, 2009 at 12:28 PM.



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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by BNS View Post
    Guess what, the Bush tax cuts ended up bringing in more revenue than before, as the lightened burden allowed for businesses to grow more and it gave the government more variables to tax.
    http://www.heritage.org/research/taxes/bg2001.cfm

    Problem is spending grew by a monstrous amount during this time too and the deficits acted against the prosperity brought by the cuts.
    Heritage Foundation is a stupid conservative site. Their claim that the US Army wasnt filled with loads of uneducated drags of society was already debunked for example.


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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by jankren View Post
    Heritage Foundation is a stupid conservative site. Their claim that the US Army wasnt filled with loads of uneducated drags of society was already debunked for example.
    I don't like it much either, but I was in a rush. However the actual numerical data is from the Congressional Budget Office.

    Logically it just makes sense that if individuals are less burdened at making, moving, and saving/investing money then they will be better able to spur economic growth.
    Last edited by BNS; July 10, 2009 at 06:37 PM.



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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by BNS View Post
    I don't like it much either, but I was in a rush. However the actual numerical data is from the Congressional Budget Office.

    Logically it just makes sense that if individuals are less burdened at making, moving, and saving/investing money then they will be better able to spur economic growth.
    Well as a Libertarian I personally support tax cuts along with government spending cuts as well.

    But I just despise Heritage Foundation greatly. They were the ones who said Iraq Invasion would be greeted by Iraqis going on the streets with flowers and the death of Zarqawi would end the Iraq War.


    "When one person suffers from a delusion it is called insanity. When many people suffer from a delusion it is called religion." -- Robert Pirsig

    "Feminists are silent when the bills arrive." -- Aetius

    "Women have made a pact with the devil — in return for the promise of exquisite beauty, their window to this world of lavish male attention is woefully brief." -- Some Guy

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by BNS View Post
    Guess what, the Bush tax cuts ended up bringing in more revenue than before, as the lightened burden allowed for businesses to grow more and it gave the government more variables to tax.
    http://www.heritage.org/research/taxes/bg2001.cfm

    Problem is spending grew by a monstrous amount during this time too and the deficits acted against the prosperity brought by the cuts.

    @ Seneca
    However don't expect the general government opinion to change much as it's mistakes will only be admitted well after this recession, and miraculously it will end up being blamed on the free market, yet again, and the "wrong" kind of state interventions 1930's style.
    Propaganda is a wonderful tool and it isn't good politics to admit mistakes, so no one ever makes mistakes in politics apparently.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Uh-huh. Because sitting on your thumbs while the credit market implodes and important sectors of the domestic economy collapse in smoldering ruins is such a great idea.

    Logically it also just makes sense that if individuals actually have paying jobs and can if necessary raise venture capital for enterprises then they will be better able to spur economic growth.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by Watchman View Post
    Uh-huh. Because sitting on your thumbs while the credit market implodes and important sectors of the domestic economy collapse in smoldering ruins is such a great idea.

    Logically it also just makes sense that if individuals actually have paying jobs and can if necessary raise venture capital for enterprises then they will be better able to spur economic growth.
    The libertarians were pretty much the only people not sitting on their thumbs during this crisis of credit explosion, they saw it coming and that is kind of the point. The others didn't.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by BNS View Post
    Guess what, the Bush tax cuts ended up bringing in more revenue than before, as the lightened burden allowed for businesses to grow more and it gave the government more variables to tax.
    http://www.heritage.org/research/taxes/bg2001.cfm
    Problem is spending grew by a monstrous amount during this time too and the deficits acted against the prosperity brought by the cuts.
    from Heritage
    Despite surging economic growth and 5 million new jobs since 2003, critics also charge that the tax cuts have not helped the economy.
    spoiler has better breakdown on dubious job creation claims
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    Sluggish private job growth indicates failure of tax cuts
    Changes in tax law since 2001 reduced federal government revenue by $870 billion through September 2005. Supporters of these tax cuts have touted them as great contributors to growth in jobs and pay. But, in reality, private-sector job growth since 2001 has been disappointing, and a closer look at the new jobs created shows that federal spending—not tax cuts—are responsible for the jobs created in the past five years.

    If tax cuts have created jobs at all since 2001, it will have happened in the private sector. Assuming that job growth in 2006 matches the Bush Administration's projections, the economy will have added about 2.0 million jobs to the private sector from FY2001 through FY2006. But how many of these two million jobs actually can be attributed to tax cuts and how many to increased government spending—particularly increased defense spending—in this period?

    Based on Defense Department estimates of the number of private-sector jobs created by its own spending, we project that additional defense spending will account for a 1.495 million gain in private sector jobs between FY2001 and FY2006. Furthermore, increases in non-defense discretionary spending since 2001 will have added yet another 1.325 million jobs in the private sector, for a total of 2.82 million jobs created by increased government spending. Increased mandatory government spending—which is not even included in these estimates or the accompanying chart—would account for even more job creation. The mere fact that the projected job growth resulting from increased defense and other government spending exceeds the actual number of jobs projected to be added to the economy through 2006 clearly indicates that the tax cuts hardly seem plausible as the engine of the modest job growth in the economy since 2001.
    Recent job gains lag far behind historical norms
    President Bush has noted that 2 million jobs were created over the course of 2005 and that we have added 4.6 million jobs since the decline in jobs ended in May 2003. But does that mean the labor market is getting back to normal?
    Unfortunately, no. Recent job gains lag far behind historical norms. Last year's 2 million new jobs represented a gain of 1.5%, a sluggish growth rate by historical standards (see chart below). In fact, it is less than half of the average growth rate of 3.5% for the same stage of previous business cycles that lasted as long. At that pace, we would have created 4.6 million jobs last year. If jobs had grown last year at the pace of even the slowest of the prior cycles—2.1% in the 1980s—we would have added 2.8 million jobs. Over the last half century, the only 12-month spans with job growth as low as 1.5% were those that actually included recession months, occurred just before a recession, or were during the "jobless recovery" of 1992 and early 1993.



    Even after Bush let the rich keep a trillion dollars more money, job growth was generally half as good as the historical average since 1939. The recent economic downturn has probably neutralized most of the job creation under the Bush administration. I'm hardly happy with Obama but the Bush tax cuts hardly trickled down. Bush pushed alot of Federal responsibility onto state and local governments. Libertarians probably agree with this move but at the same time this statistically skews most reliable data. I don't feel like spending the time to refute other assertions from the Heritage foundation but the job growth is one fact I remebered being falsely positive.

    Anyone who faults the CRA for bank credit risk mismanagement needs to look in the mirror. People buying houses in low-income areas had little to do with toppling the entire financial services sector.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by nopasties View Post
    Anyone who faults the CRA for bank credit risk mismanagement needs to look in the mirror. People buying houses in low-income areas had little to do with toppling the entire financial services sector.
    I don't know of a serious libertarian who puts most of the blame on the CRA. Rather the Federal Reserve easy credit policy that sought to ease us out of the early 2000's recession on a housing bubble.



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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by BNS View Post
    I don't know of a serious libertarian who puts most of the blame on the CRA. Rather the Federal Reserve easy credit policy that sought to ease us out of the early 2000's recession on a housing bubble.
    Its crazy to put ''most'' of the blame on anything. It was a factor like many things.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by BNS View Post
    I don't know of a serious libertarian who puts most of the blame on the CRA. Rather the Federal Reserve easy credit policy that sought to ease us out of the early 2000's recession on a housing bubble.
    I did not pinpoint Libertarians in blaming the CRA for the financial crisis. Seneca was the one who brought it up in another post and mentioned it again after your post. Seneca can be excused for not being from the states because most of his posting is reasonable. Bringing up the CRA at the exclusion of other causes for the financial crisis makes one a little suspicious of his grasp of the subject.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Quote Originally Posted by Seneca View Post
    So this is just a quick question to socialists and perhaps those with a pathological hatred of libertarians and free market advocates. Considering they have been right on pretty much everything to do with the economy why not treat them like an idiot savante, despise them as you will but hand them your 2+2's and get the right answers. You can still despise them and deride them but perhaps if we listen to their warnings and follow their advice in some ways we might end up with a bit less poverty.
    That made my day, +rep for you.

  16. #16

    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    This is refering to the Romer-Bernstein report, which contained this line...

    "Forecasts of the unemployment rate without the recovery plan vary substantially. Some private forecasters anticipate unemployment rates as high as 11% in the absence of action."
    I don't think there's a "gotcha" moment until early to mid 2010. If growth hasn't turned around, then the administration might have some explaining to do.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    So this is just a quick question to socialists and perhaps those with a pathological hatred of libertarians and free market advocates. Considering they have been right on pretty much everything to do with the economy
    ..lol? I fail to see how flaws in Obama's economic injections and a right statement by Ron Paul means that the Libertarians are right, when they clearly have not. A great deal of this mess has been caused by problems with the free market, not all of it, but a significant portion has been caused by loopholes and flaws in the current market system and I have yet to see a Libertarian admit this. Whilst I don't agree with Obama's policies, I don't agree with the right wing excuse that are flown around either. Libertarians and Conservatives seem to concentrate almost entirely on Obama and completely ignore the causes of the current crisis.

    The libertarians were pretty much the only people not sitting on their thumbs during this crisis of credit explosion, they saw it coming and that is kind of the point. The others didn't.


    Sure they did. They just didn't say or act against it because it would completely ruin the point of their ideology, seeing as many things that aggrevated the crisis, such as shadow banking and predatory lending, especially dodgy organisations like Icesave and Countrywide, could've been prevented if the government could've regulated those organisations.
    Quote Originally Posted by A.J.P. Taylor
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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    Massive flaw in your opening post Seneca. The big guys predicting this in Britain were Vince Cable, a Social Democrat of the Third Way, and Peter Lilly, a Centre-Right Tory with no Libertarian leanings.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    and quite a few non libertarian thinkers

    sigh.

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    Default Re: Reconciling the crazy and the right

    So what's the relevance of ''the right'', if it isn't exclusive?

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