21st century - whose century?

[Aldgarkalaughskel]

Like the 20th century saw the downfall of Europe and the rise of the US, the 21st century will see its winners and losers too. Whose century do you think this one will be?

The current/potentional top powers are:
USA
EU
Russia
China
India
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers

Factors to consider:
- political power (the ability to impose one's will on others without acts of violence)
- military power (the ability to impose one's will on others with acts of violence)
- economic power (growth, self-sufficiency and innovation)
- cultural influence (ideological impact on other parts of the world, the coherence and innovation of cultural identity, cultural export etc.)
- demographics (the growth of population)

Interesting articles:
http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=4406
http://www.binghamton.edu/fbc/186en.htm
http://jwsr.ucr.edu/archive/vol13/Scott-vol13n2.pdf

[Sidmen]

I feel that Russia will drop off that list as their population continues to stagnate, and pretty much stay the same for the forseeable next few decades.

Depending if the EU collapses (possible) strengthens (also possible) or remains the same (very likely) it may oust the USA from top dog position. China will likely hover around 2nd place or 3rd place if Europe becomes stronger.

[Pious Agnost]

Some Pakistanis do hope to become a super-power certainly at least in the Islamic world by the year 2025, The early Ayub years gave us the "Green Revolution" because of the construction and commissioning of dams such as Mangla and Tarbela. Barrages were erected all the way down to the Guddu near Hyderabad, therefore these dams and barrages gave birth to an efficient network of canals and small distributaries which in the sixties not only made Pakistan self-sufficient but surplus in agricultural products. While fighting a War on terrorism, the Muslim-majority state of Pakistan is pursuing new technology (such as UCAVs) to maintain an edge over any potential challenger. The forces are well-trained, and the Pakistani Navy is still the most powerful in the world. Pakistan has the biggest and strongest army, navy and air force the world has ever seen. The term superpower greatly understates what the Islamic Republic of Pakistan can do. It is most definitely a soft/sleeping hyper-superpower.

Someone with a Wiki account should change this, or bold it

The EU, but that's not really fair, that's 27 different countries.

USA or China, probably, though India has no-where to go but up, and Russias population problem is stabilizing

[Aldgarkalaughskel]

I feel that Russia will drop off that list as their population continues to stagnate, and pretty much stay the same for the forseeable next few decades.

Demographics is only one factor in play, Russia's emerging military presence should also be considered. F.e. Russia is considering arming its Baltic fleet with nuclear warheads for the first time since the cold war, they are seeking aggressive territorial conquest in Middle Asia, Caucasus- similar to the US, their economy is also on the rise (8-10% GDP growth), and Russia is still one of the world's two energy superpowers (the other being Saudi Arabia).

Depending if the EU collapses (possible) strengthens (also possible) or remains the same (very likely) it may oust the USA from top dog position. China will likely hover around 2nd place or 3rd place if Europe becomes stronger.

On what sort of statistics do you base your opinion about the possible future of EU?

[ShockBlast]

On what sort of statistics do you base your opinion about the possible future of EU?

British statistics.

[Holger Danske]

Demographics is only one factor in play, Russia's emerging military presence should also be considered. F.e. Russia is considering arming its Baltic fleet with nuclear warheads for the first time since the cold war.

Time for Sweden, Denmark, Poland, and Germany to feed up their fleets then, and consider a mining strategy to keep the Russians in port, if needed... No wonder why the Baltic states are so afraid of Russia.

[Desperado †]

On what sort of statistics do you base your opinion about the possible future of EU?

The fact that it has the highest GDP out of all the countries on your list? If it merged to become more of a superstate it could easily become the worlds next superpower, although the chances of it becoming more unified are fairly unlikely at the moment.

[Thorn777]

Good post, Caelius. I'm trying to tell the Eurosceptic in these threads all the freakin time about not just looking at our present state of things. And its not only Friedman having this stance, its a hole ship-load of these renowned global-thinkers taking in the possible variables at our door steps.

One could wish Socrates was still alive to teach the Pericles's of our times.

[Lance-Corporal Jones]

One could wish Socrates was still alive to teach the Pericles's of our times.

Did you say Socrates?

http://www.twcenter.net/forums/showt...40#post5352340

(just kidding )

[Nikitn]

Well, Russia IS on the rise, and the population problems are lowering. When Russia becomes wealthier, I think the population will rise.

Who will be the top dog? Probably either China, India or maybe US. But I voted Russia anyway.

[Sidmen]

The EU, but that's not really fair, that's 27 different countries.

Thats actually why I don't think they'll progress much, 27 different countries, all of which have been at war with eachother for the past 3,000 years jammed together doesn't sound stable to me.

[6th Vigil]

I suppose the EU has the potential but it is like a house with it's foundations on sand.

Russia is just waiting to spring out. The USSR never really collapsed it's just sleeping...

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/1603735/soviet_union/

British statistics.

Well at least the UK can assemble statistics. For example one statistic shows that the turnout for Euro elections were ~43% for the entire EU. People just don't think the EU matters.

[Frankie88]

I don't think much will change unless their is some sort of huge natural disaster. China will have a hard time to keep their population under control, India will have their border problems, the US will have a hard time to get their economy back on track, Europa will be divided as alway and Russia seems too dependant on their oil exports.

[VALIS]

Theres not going to be a Russia in a few decades time. Those mofos are losing 500,000 people a year.

[Pious Agnost]

The number of Russians leaving has been rapidly dropping itself.

It has been predicted that by 2011 their population will begin to grow again

[Nikitn]

That's BS.

[Pious Agnost]

Me or him?

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080123/97616414.html

[Nikitn]

Him of course. And yeah, many more people are immigrating to Russia then emigrating.

[ShockBlast]

— World62,250,000
— European Union18,850,000
1 United States14,330,000
2 Japan4,844,000
3 People's Republic of China4,222,000
4 Germany3,818,000
5 France2,978,000
6 United Kingdom2,787,000
7 Italy2,399,000
8 Russia1,757,000

Do i need to say more?

[Hippolord]

— World62,250,000
— European Union18,850,000
1 United States14,330,000
2 Japan4,844,000
3 People's Republic of China4,222,000
4 Germany3,818,000
5 France2,978,000
6 United Kingdom2,787,000
7 Italy2,399,000
8 Russia1,757,000

Do i need to say more?

YAAAAY! A combination of 27 countries managed to beat....one countrie?

Or is this a compliment to the U.S.,cause thats what im getting from this.

I think this century will go to 2 countries, both U.S. and China. The regrowth of the Economic strength of the U.S. can only aid China, and the U.S. still makes up roughly 21-24 % of the worlds Economy. Thats why when we have economic troubles... The world has economic troubles.

The Chinese will continue to grow rich off american excess, while the united states will still remain a major world military power, and in myopinon will once agin become,THE worlds foremost political power.

As for technological growth rate, i see an equalization between china and the U.S., with the U.S. pulling out a little bit in front (The chinese still have a ways to go). We will continue our space program as planned, and if we can solve the energy crisis, then our attention will probably turn back to it, and such other things. This will cause an all around expansion in technological growth.

The Chinese will only share in this tech. growth. And they themselves will probably make great strides, and will expand politcally to be the foremost power in Asia (Beating out India, and Saudi Arabia).

As for the E.U., i just don't see it happening. There really just aint enough support at the end of the day. I think they will either soverignize, or more likely just break apart under the pressure of both Russia and the U.S. And possibly China.

Russia, still has some problems left over it neds to deal with. If it does end up taking the century, it will be at the end, more like 2080-2099. By then it will have solved the majority of it's internal issues, allowing it to focus more and more upon external issues, and possibly become the economic and politaicl powerhouse that it used to be... But not for a while yet...

This is just my opinon, i see 2 superpowers in the 21st century, not one: The U.S. and China.