What would cause a civil war in a Western state?

[manofarms89]

So what do you guys think could cause a civil war in the Western nations? The economy continuing to spiral out of control? The exposure of a corrupt government? A hotly contested and very divisive election? Talk to me.

[Lance-Corporal Jones]

Nowadays? Maybe regional nationalism, IRA-style.

I believe, however, that for a civil war to take place, the army needs a reason to be divided. Usually that divide takes place between officers and soldiers, who tend to be of divergent political opinions (the officers are much more conservative). If the army is united, it is merely an uprising as the army will tend to gain the upper hand and take control of government very quickly.

[Oklop]

Nowadays? Maybe regional nationalism, IRA-style.

I believe, however, that for a civil war to take place, the army needs a reason to be divided. Usually that divide takes place between officers and soldiers, who tend to be of divergent political opinions (the officers are much more conservative). If the army is united, it is merely an uprising as the army will tend to gain the upper hand and take control of government very quickly.

Or if the soldiers are divided on ethnic lines as in former Yugoslavia. The army could have crushed any opposition in the country but the troops were divided among themselves, and officer of certain ethnicity will feel a lot of pressure if he needs to open fire on his own people.

Imagine a civil war in Belgium where the army divides on ethnic lines. And in Yugoslavia th prolem was also that thre were 3 religions among the said troops also.

[manofarms89]

plus the size of most western armed forces forces makes it kind of hard for the entire military to be united

[Lance-Corporal Jones]

The division can also come from colonial forces/metropolitan forces (even, for instance, with enclaves overseas, or missions abroad).

In general, there are several possible scenarios:

Officers attempt a coup

1- They gain overwhelming support and carry out the coup more or less peacefully

2- They gain extremely little support and are shot

3- They gain a fair amount of support; they and their followers face off with loyalist troops.

Other reasons may include: conditions of advancement (in the context of a war, especially a colonial war, some officers may feel treated unfairly as the folks over at the conflict will be getting a lot of advancements by merit) pay (officers may feel they aren't paid enough) or conflict between arms of the army (for instance, in Spain in 1926, the Artillery arm felt they were treated unfairly and attempted an aborted coup).

[roy34543]

It would take something like very seriously divided ethnic groups , Predictably muslims and christians.
Arguably if Israel can be considered a western state, its already very easy to see how a civil war could break out, If you dont consider the intifadah one already .

[Oklop]

Arguably if Israel can be considered a western state, its already very easy to see how a civil war could break out, If you dont consider the intifadah one already .

Aye, but the IDF is 100% Jewish so they are clear from divisions.

[Lance-Corporal Jones]

Ethnic divisions perhaps, but a battle-weary army will sometimes revolt against its masters.

[vizi]

So what do you guys think could cause a civil war in the Western nations? The economy continuing to spiral out of control? The exposure of a corrupt government? A hotly contested and very divisive election? Talk to me.

Read about the American Civil War.

You can replace slavery with any major issue. If that issue follows a similar division like the USA did over slavery. You will eventually get a civil war.

[manofarms89]

Read about the American Civil War.

You can replace slavery with any major issue. If that issue follows a similar division like the USA did over slavery. You will eventually get a civil war.

not enough people feel as strongly about a topic today as the CSA did about preserving slavery (which was really about money). plus at any rate the CSA was just being a sore loser.

[Каие]

Someone trying to destroy liberal democracy. Both politically and socially. I.e. Fascists, and Socialists.

[Aldgarkalaughskel]

Ethnic or religious conflicts culminating in violent acts of attempting secession territorially/legally.

[Barry Goldwater]

Less than three meals a day.

[IrishHitman]

A Federal Europe with a large amount of federal power.

[Aldgarkalaughskel]

A Federal Europe with a large amount of federal power.

Could you elaborate the scenario, please? You mean ex-IRA member blowing up some cars in Belfast and killing innocent civilians?

[Exarch]

ethnic tensions due to racists promoting violence and prejudice against immigrants

think of what the goths did when the romans started enslaving and ing them

[Poach]

Any issue one part of the country is steadfastly for and the rest are steadfastly against, and the losing side are willing to fight.

Government trying to dissolve democracy, managing to institute some radical policy, routinely using violence against peaceful protests etc.

My envisioning of a western civil war would be a deteriorating situation, rather than war simply breaking out it would start fairly peaceful and get worse and worse as one party acts wrongly (eg, government getting heavy handed on protesters and such)

[IrishHitman]

Could you elaborate the scenario, please? You mean ex-IRA member blowing up some cars in Belfast and killing innocent civilians?

No, I mean violent uprisings in the UK, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Austria, Greece and Poland.

[Lance-Corporal Jones]

Silvio Berlusconi and his army of Playboy bunnies.

[Lance-Corporal Jones]

France was on the verge of civil war back in 68, when things got so ugly De Gaulle grabbed a helicopter to visit one of his generals to see if he would stay loyal. At that stage the streets of Paris and several other large cities were full of barricades, riots threatened to destroy government, and De Gaulle had even posted tanks outside the city to intervene if necessary.

Also, in Spain during the Democratic Transition in 1981, general Tejero attempted a coup, and one of his general chums (Milans del Bosch) actually drove his tanks into Valencia. The King, fortunately, intervened as Captain General of the Armed Forces and the conspirators were arrested.

Pretty scary, and pretty recent.