Odds of dying in a plane crash?

[War&Politics]

OK, I have a statistical question here, motivated more by my interest in numbers than any fear of flying. But I was wondering how does safety of planes really compare to the safety of driving? We are often presented with figures which show us just how safe flying really is, with so few accidents and deaths occurring, compared to the total carnage on roads everywhere. But aren't the statistics a bit misleading? After all, the average person spends many hundreds (or thousands?) of hours on the road each year, compared to only a few hours flying each year. It stands to reason, that if people spent say a 100 times more time in a car each year than in a plane, their odds of dying in a car crash would be significantly higher, which means any statistics I read on flying versus driving are biased against driving.

I was wondering if anybody could figure out statistically how safe flying really is compared to driving, taking into account the hours people spend driving compared to flying.

[eisenkopf]

5 minutes of searching...

http://www.meretrix.com/~harry/flyin...vsdriving.html

http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasc...9/gen99845.htm

[War&Politics]

Well, I certainly couldn't find it. Very interesting, thank you. I sent a +rep your way too.

[Holger Danske]

That certainly depends on how the plane crashes.
A step angled collision, certain death. High altitude brake up, certain death. Mid air collision, almost certain death. Flat angled ground collision, 50/50 (depending on the scenario). Etc...

Interestingly though the safety has actually increased since 1999 in terms of the number of accidents, but the fatalities are about the same with some exceptions.

year/deaths/nr. of accidents
2008/876/147
2007/965/136
2006/1,293/164
2005/1,454/184
2004/766/165
2003/1,224/198
2002/1,399/173
2001/1,535/187
2000/1,567/179
1999/1,130/198
1972/3,214/- (most recorded fatalities so far)

Source: Aircraft Crashes Record Office

[Helm]

If you've driven to the airport you've just completed the most dangerous part of the journey.