Originally Posted by
Farnan
Failure in Afghanistan would mean more than just a bloody nose for the US or a country under Taliban rule (though that alone is horrendous, the Taliban being as evil as the Nazis (genocide included)), but the consequences are far more horrible.
First, it will result in intense destabilization of Central Asia and India. Islamic Fundamental movements are on the rise in Central Asia, ever since the 1990s. These organizations, especially the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, were supported and trained by the Taliban and their masters Al Qaeda (Al Qaeda controlled the Taliban by purposefully making them reliant upon Al Qaeda's support. Originally the ISI were their masters, but Al Qaeda took over, though Al Qaeda and the ISI were allies). The IMU is involved in multiple Central Asian states, and after it took a beating they were given shelter in Afghanistan and became a front line force in the Taliban Army. They probably remain among the troops fighting ISAF and ANG forces in Afghanistan. Other Central Asian organizations, including Chechnyian forces are also among the troops trained in Afghanistan. With the Central Asian dictators becoming increasingly repressive Islamic Fundamentalists groups are becoming more and more popular. And since elections are not an option they are willing to use terrorist tactics to achieve their goals. There is a reason Russia and the Central Asian states were the biggest supporters of the Northern Alliance pre-911. India is also a target of decentralization, especially in Kashmir. Afghanistan was the training grounds of the Kashmir Insurgent groups, and Al Qaeda was utilized for the training, and helped the ISI pick who to send (the chief recruiting officer of Al Qaeda was also the man in charge of vetting potential Kashmiri insurgents). Again, there is a reason India pumps billions into Afghanistan and supported the ISI.
Second, the Taliban in Pakistan are far more powerful than before, and with Afghanistan as a base can destabilize Pakistan... again. Already the Taliban have taken control of ground from Pakistan, and are outside Islamabad. Should they regain control of Afghanistan and lose the threat of ISAF forces they will be able to become even more of a threat. This will likely result in two equally bad outcomes: further destabilization of nuclear Pakistan, or a return of a military rule that openly supports aggressive Jihad to a degree of Zia.
Third, the drug problem. Already Afghanistan provides at least 42% of the world's opium. The Taliban, with their alliance with the drug lords, will likely expand production should they regain control. I am aware they got rid of it during their first rule, but I believe that is extremely unlikely. They have recently been able to justify selling it to fight Jihad, and with an increased rule they will likely keep the justification and use the money to buy arms and train, finance and equip other organizations as they have done before (tieing in with #1). This flooding of opiates could devastate Iran, and hurts Europe the main recipient of Afghan opium.
These issues are not the result of the invasion (though the mismanagement played a part in allowing them to regrow as it did), they were an issue before the invasion (except Opium, however the invasion removed, for now at least, the ability of the Taliban to attack Uzbekistan through the IMU). Especially the danger of the Taliban to Central Asian stability (again Central Asian support for the NA was extremely high), however these issues will return to a greater degree should the Taliban win and be able to use the view of the ability to beat the US, and if they have the time to destroy the ANG and take control of all of Afghanistan.
The Consequences of Failure in Afghanistan are Outstanding
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