Hezbollah, allies positioning to win election

[mrmouth]

With quiet campaigning and moderate talk, Hezbollah is building its strength for Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections - and the militant Shi'ite Muslim group and its allies stand a good chance of winning. That could mean a stunning shake-up for one of the Middle East's most volatile countries if the pro-U.S. government is replaced with a coalition dominated from behind the scenes by Hezbollah, the political movement and guerrilla group widely seen as the proxy of Iran and Syria in Lebanon.

The U.S. and Israel consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization, and their biggest fear is that a win by the group and its allies would increase the sway of Iran and Syria. The U.S. ambassador in Beirut has already expressed concern, and opponents warn that a Hezbollah win will result in the West isolating Lebanon and Washington reducing its millions in aid.

Hezbollah, whose name means "party of God," has run a low-key election campaign with a moderate message, aiming to show that a victory by its coalition should not scare anyone. Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, has even said that if the coalition wins, it would invite its opponents to join in a national unity government to ensure stability. His deputy, Sheik Naim Kassem, says the West will have to accept the election results. Sheik Kassem said foreign diplomats are already approaching Hezbollah, "some wanting to open a new page." Britain has said it is willing to talk to Hezbollah's political wing, and a Hezbollah member of the current Lebanese parliament recently traveled to London.

The moderate tone is in part because Hezbollah does not want to suffer the same fate as its Palestinian militant ally Hamas, which won legislative elections in 2006 but was boycotted by the West and crippled by an Israel-led closure of the Gaza Strip.

"There are pitfalls for winning or losing," said Hezbollah expert Amal Saad-Ghorayeb. "They [Hezbollah] see the dangers of winning."

Nevertheless, a Hezbollah win would almost certainly mean changes that would dismay the West and Israel. It would mean less pressure from Lebanon's government to rein in Hezbollah's arsenal of rockets pointed at the Jewish state - weapons employed in the 2006 war with Israel - and more backing for efforts to change Lebanon's electoral system to solidify Shi'ite power further.



So far, Hezbollah has campaigned quietly, with none of its trademark fiery anti-Israel rallies. Its 10 candidates have been holding town hall meetings in Shi'ite villages, focusing on promises to root out corruption and improve government performance, and stressing government by consensus.

By contrast, leaders from the U.S.-backed majority have held three splashy rallies since February before several thousand people in a Beirut hall, with balloons, confetti and speakers projected on a giant screen.
Sheik Nasrallah says Hezbollah knows that trying to dominate Lebanon's politics would destabilize the country, which in the past four years nearly tumbled into a repeat of the 1975-90 civil war as the pro-Syria and pro-U.S. camps struggled for the upper hand.

"In such a sectarian system, it is in the interest of Lebanon and its stability that there is understanding and partnership among Lebanese in running their country's affairs," he said in a recent televised speech.
Under Lebanon's complex political system, no group can rule alone. The 128-member legislature must be half-Christian and half-Muslim, with the Christians divided among Orthodox and Catholic parties and the Muslims among Shi'ite, Sunni, Druse and Alawite sects. Moreover, in any government, the prime minister must be a Sunni, so Hezbollah would need allies from that sect.

Lebanon's 4 million population is roughly divided in thirds between Christians, Sunnis and Shi'ites, with smaller sects mixed in. The exact numbers are unknown because a census would be too politically risky. The last one was held in 1932.

The pro-U.S. bloc - largely Sunnis with Christian allies - holds 70 seats in the 128-member parliament, so a handful of races could tip the balance.

Hezbollah is running 10 candidates - one less than it has in the current parliament after withdrawing from one constituency to give a seat to an allied party. All the Hezbollah candidates will likely win easily given the movement's overwhelming support among Shi'ites. Its coalition of pro-Syrian, Shi'ite and several Christian parties now has 58 seats in parliament. About 30 seats - from both camps - are reported to be a toss-ups. But some political analysts say Hezbollah's coalition has a strong chance of winning a majority because smaller electoral districts created since the 2005 election favor its candidates. There are no reliable independent polls in Lebanon.

The leader of the pro-U.S. bloc, Sunni billionaire Saad Hariri, has said a Hezbollah win would "put Lebanon into very difficult times," threatening its economic growth.

In an interview with Beirut's Naharnet news Web site, U.S. Ambassador Michele Sison warned that American relations with Lebanon - and future U.S. aid - "will be evaluated in the context of the new government's policies and statements." Since 2006, the United States has committed more than a billion dollars to Lebanon, including $410 million to the country's security forces.

A victory by the pro-Syrian coalition would likely see Hezbollah pushing to fulfill its campaign promise to eliminate the sectarian distribution of parliament seats, which would boost the power of the growing Shi'ite population. Hezbollah would also see a win as a mandate for its opposition to U.S. Middle East policies and its strong anti-Israeli line.

[Admiral Piett]

I don't know what to think about Hezbollah.

[B5C]

Hezbollah running on a "moderate" message?

What is it? Their going to start a war once only two years and try to kill 50 less Jews a year?

[Keravnos]

I don't know what to think about Hezbollah.

It is easy, in the context of what is happening right now. A wolf donning a sheep's skin, even pretending to graze peacefully, to get as close to the flock as possible. Here's how I consider Hezbollah in a picture...


If the election results put Hezbollah in power over Lebanon, no need for the sheep skin camouflage. There will be enough live sheep for the wolf to feed on,


I believe that the image of a peaceful party which fights corruption, takes care of its allies and spends money for the welfare of its people is extremely close to what Hitlers' program had been before 1939.
What happens is this; "fighting corruption" will become "fighting opposition" especially those who aren't of the same faith.
"Taking care of allies" will mean "sudden death" for the opposition and I could go on about what happened to those who tried to oppose Hezbollah in Lebanon. This way the allies will be cowed into submission.
"Spending money for the welfare of the people" is Hezbollah's more elaborate scheme, especially using money funneled by Iran, to create a new theocratic state in Lebanon.

I hope we won't see a small Iran on Mediterranean shores. I hope that people will see the true Hezbollah and vote against it, because if they vote for it, it will be the last time they ever get to vote.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I believe the expression is... "the gloves come off"

[Erik]

I hope we won't see a small Iran on Mediterranean shores. I hope that people will see the true Hezbollah and vote against it, because if they vote for it, it will be the last time they ever get to vote.

I don't know how the Lebanese political system works exactly, but I seriously doubt any party can abolish democracy just by getting into a majority coalition.

[sephodwyrm]

try to kill 50 less Jews a year?

They're already killing less than 50 Jews a year. 50 less would be 0 or negative.

[EmperorDude]

Could I ask for the name of the source for this article? Just curious.

[persianfan247]

They're already killing less than 50 Jews a year. 50 less would be 0 or negative.

Does that mean they are going to make Jewish babies????

[removeduser_487563287433]

Don't worry guys, the Israelis on this forum have been informing me their invasion of Lebanon was a complete success, the OP must be mistaken about Hezbollah's prospects.

[b_133]

Of course it was a success.
It fulfilled it's objective - stop rocket fire and create a deterrent. (And Hezbollah was always quick to point a finger at other groups when rockets were fired to North Israel during Cast Lead so you can see it worked too).
Just because you decided Israel's objective was to destroy Hezbollah militarily and politically doesn't mean that this is the case.
Since that would be an impossible task against this kind of group and UNIFIL was expected to be as useless as it is in preventing Hezbollah from re-arming, and since Israel has no control over Lebanon's borders - it was all expected. Heck even i saw it coming and i'm hardly a political expert.

And Hezbollah winning the elections will mean it will have to abide by international law so in terms of fighting Israel it'll interesting to see if they would continue to make it a policy to operate from residential areas, assuming they would actually win.

I'm also not exactly familiar with the election system in Lebanon and i wonder in case Hezbollah wins who exactly will the Lebanese army answer to.

[removeduser_487563287433]

Of course it was a success.

Hilarious.

[6644kp]

Of course it was a success.
It fulfilled it's objective - stop rocket fire and create a deterrent. (And Hezbollah was always quick to point a finger at other groups when rockets were fired to North Israel during Cast Lead so you can see it worked too).
Just because you decided Israel's objective was to destroy Hezbollah militarily and politically doesn't mean that this is the case.
Since that would be an impossible task against this kind of group and UNIFIL was expected to be as useless as it is in preventing Hezbollah from re-arming, and since Israel has no control over Lebanon's borders - it was all expected. Heck even i saw it coming and i'm hardly a political expert.

And Hezbollah winning the elections will mean it will have to abide by international law so in terms of fighting Israel it'll interesting to see if they would continue to make it a policy to operate from residential areas, assuming they would actually win.

I'm also not exactly familiar with the election system in Lebanon and i wonder in case Hezbollah wins who exactly will the Lebanese army answer to.

victory my ass. 160 israelis died in that war with hezbollah and neither did hezbollah get destroyed or its missle strenght reduced. right now hezbollah has more rockets than in 2006 and what the israelis did was unblievable they attacked and invaded a soverieng nation, israel is a rouge state. it would be like if india air striked and invaded pakistan after the mumbai massacre to defeat the militants in pakistan.

[Erik]

The U.S. and Israel consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization, and their biggest fear is that a win by the group and its allies would increase the sway of Iran and Syria. The U.S. ambassador in Beirut has already expressed concern, and opponents warn that a Hezbollah win will result in the West isolating Lebanon and Washington reducing its millions in aid.

Funny, I didn't know the US Beirut ambassador was King of "the West"?

I really hope European countries won't change their position on Hezbollah because of US pressure.
Just because they are considered "terrrists" by the Anglo-Saxon unions, doesn't mean we can't keep an open relationship with them.

[Misery]

Funny, I didn't know the US Beirut ambassador was King of "the West"?

I really hope European countries won't change their position on Hezbollah because of US pressure.
Just because they are considered "terrrists" by the Anglo-Saxon unions, doesn't mean we can't keep an open relationship with them.

I agree, Europe and rest should speak to them, nothing more then resistance/guerrilla force that is trying to integrate into regular politics now that independence struggle finished.

Lets not forget that African National Congress was considered terrorist organization by Anglo-Saxon unions where in fact they were resistance/guerrilla force fighting for their rights.

[mrmouth]

I really hope European countries won't change their position on Hezbollah because of US pressure.
Just because they are considered "terrrists" by the Anglo-Saxon unions, doesn't mean we can't keep an open relationship with them.

Since when does the pussy-footed approach of Europe lead to anything positive?? Name me one ing time.

Europe doesn't have a leg to stand on with the that they have allowed to happen in their backyard. They cant even get on the same page in terms of Afghanistan. They keep paying ransoms to pirates, and they kept paying ransoms to terrorists.

Its quite clear that the approach Europe takes only plays into what radicals expect from them.

Could I ask for the name of the source for this article? Just curious.

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009...yes-elections/

[Major.Stupidity]

Since when does the pussy-footed approach of Europe lead to anything positive?? Name me one ing time.

Europe doesn't have a leg to stand on with the that they have allowed to happen in their backyard. They cant even get on the same page in terms of Afghanistan. They keep paying ransoms to pirates, and they kept paying ransoms to terrorists.

Its quite clear that the approach Europe takes only plays into what radicals expect from them.


http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009...yes-elections/

So what do you suggest then?

[mrmouth]

So what do you suggest then?

If your going to sit at the table with Hezbollah, you have to do so knowing that they never once tried to open negotiations with Israel. Israel is not at war with a country, but an ideology. An ideology that has led to the slaughter of countless innocent civilians. An ideology that gave birth to the very entity you plan on sitting down with.

You cannot win by appeasing radicalism. You can't impress terrorists with kindness. You can't win terrorists over with concessions. Hezbollah, at its very root, is terrorism personified.

Hezbollah gave the world, the suicide bomb. Or as they have always termed it, the human bomb. To the rest of the world, it was a new chapter in terrorism. And has become the standard.

Al-Qaida itself picked up this tactic from Imad Mughniyeh, one of the key operatives trained by Iran and supported by Syria and who was heavily involved with the Beirut truck bombing. A famous Hezbollah operative, and a hero to all who support terrorism.


This is its founding message:

We see in Israel the vanguard of the United States in our Islamic world. It is the hated enemy that must be fought until the hated ones get what they deserve....

Therefore our struggle will end only when this entity is obliterated. We recognize no treaty with it, no cease fire, and no peace agreements, whether separate or consolidated.

We vigorously condemn all plans for negotiation with Israel, and regard all negotiators as enemies, for the reason that such negotiation is nothing but the recognition of the legitimacy of the Zionist occupation of Palestine. Therefore we oppose and reject proposals, and all other programs that include the recognition (even the implied recognition) of the Zionist entity.

Hezbollah in its own words:

We do not constitute an organized and closed party in Lebanon. nor are we a tight political cadre. We are an umma linked to the Muslims of the whole world by the solid doctrinal and religious connection of Islam, whose message God wanted to be fulfilled by the Seal of the Prophets, i.e., Muhammad....

No one can imagine the importance of our military potential as our military apparatus is not separate from our overall social fabric. Each of us is a fighting soldier. And when it becomes necessary to carry out the Holy War, each of us takes up his assignment in the fight in accordance with the injunctions of the Law, and that in the framework of the mission carried out under the tutelage of the Commanding Jurist.

Hezbollah on the West:

We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization and for the uprooting of the Americans and the English.

Our missiles are now ready to strike at their civilization, and as soon as the instructions arrive... we will launch our missiles at their cities and installations....

The global infidel front is a front against Allah and the Muslims, and we must make use of everything we have at hand to strike at this front, by means of our suicide operations or by means of our missiles. There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and in the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them.


So if you're going to sit down with these people, know who you are sitting with. Im not wholly against it, I just wonder that if I were one of the hundreds of innocent people Hezbollah has killed in the time it has existed, I wonder if I would support giving them legitimacy.

[Major.Stupidity]

If your going to sit at the table with Hezbollah, you have to do so knowing that they never once tried to open negotiations with Israel. Israel is not at war with a country, but an ideology. An ideology that has led to the slaughter of countless innocent civilians. An ideology that gave birth to the very entity you plan on sitting down with.

You cannot win by appeasing radicalism. You can't impress terrorists with kindness. You can't win terrorists over with concessions. Hezbollah, at its very root, is terrorism personified.

Hezbollah gave the world, the suicide bomb. Or as they have always termed it, the human bomb. To the rest of the world, it was a new chapter in terrorism. And has become the standard.

Al-Qaida itself picked up this tactic from Imad Mughniyeh, one of the key operatives trained by Iran and supported by Syria and who was heavily involved with the Beirut truck bombing. A famous Hezbollah operative, and a hero to all who support terrorism.


This is its founding message:

We see in Israel the vanguard of the United States in our Islamic world. It is the hated enemy that must be fought until the hated ones get what they deserve....

Therefore our struggle will end only when this entity is obliterated. We recognize no treaty with it, no cease fire, and no peace agreements, whether separate or consolidated.

We vigorously condemn all plans for negotiation with Israel, and regard all negotiators as enemies, for the reason that such negotiation is nothing but the recognition of the legitimacy of the Zionist occupation of Palestine. Therefore we oppose and reject proposals, and all other programs that include the recognition (even the implied recognition) of the Zionist entity.

Hezbollah in its own words:

We do not constitute an organized and closed party in Lebanon. nor are we a tight political cadre. We are an umma linked to the Muslims of the whole world by the solid doctrinal and religious connection of Islam, whose message God wanted to be fulfilled by the Seal of the Prophets, i.e., Muhammad....

No one can imagine the importance of our military potential as our military apparatus is not separate from our overall social fabric. Each of us is a fighting soldier. And when it becomes necessary to carry out the Holy War, each of us takes up his assignment in the fight in accordance with the injunctions of the Law, and that in the framework of the mission carried out under the tutelage of the Commanding Jurist.

Hezbollah on the West:

We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization and for the uprooting of the Americans and the English.

Our missiles are now ready to strike at their civilization, and as soon as the instructions arrive... we will launch our missiles at their cities and installations....

The global infidel front is a front against Allah and the Muslims, and we must make use of everything we have at hand to strike at this front, by means of our suicide operations or by means of our missiles. There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and in the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them.


So if you're going to sit down with these people, know who you are sitting with. Im not wholly against it, I just wonder that if I were one of the hundreds of innocent people Hezbollah has killed in the time it has existed, I wonder if I would support giving them legitimacy.

First, Hizbullah didn't invent the suicide bomber, second you might want to contextualize the founding charter of Hizbullah and actually put it into the context of the movement's radical phase of the early 1980's. Moreover, Hizbullah is not a transnational phenomenon ala al-Qaeda. Additionally, why do you ignore what Hizbullah does a majority of the time IE provide social benefits for Lebanon's downtrodden, I don't understand the terrorism studies binders you have a tendency to employ when discussing groups such as HAMAS and Hizbullah.

[skag]

Since when does the pussy-footed approach of Europe lead to anything positive?? Name me one ing time.

Europe doesn't have a leg to stand on with the that they have allowed to happen in their backyard. They cant even get on the same page in terms of Afghanistan. They keep paying ransoms to pirates, and they kept paying ransoms to terrorists.

Its quite clear that the approach Europe takes only plays into what radicals expect from them.


http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009...yes-elections/

LOL, hey man, woooohoooo welcome on earth !!! FFS

Lemme tell you what's positive with our Pussy-approach :

We did not had 2 towers equivalent (exept spain and England, they supported USA, so they are not considered as "pussy approachers"). For me it's positive !!!

We are not hated as Israel and USA are. For me it's positive.

When we pay ransom to pirates. Where's the ing problem ? We got our people back, pirates have their money, no one has been hurt, and everyone's HAPPY !! if we have the money for it, then it's ok. It would be better to send militars, got hostage/pirates/militars killed ?? I don't think so. Once more, our pussy-approach seems positive for me

I really think you have just ALL wrong man. the ones who are chill with almost all the world, is EUROPE.

And you seems to forgive a really REALLY important thing, that feeds the most your epical fail : extremist does not exist without a reason. This reason is USA, and Israel. The only think to blame about Europe, is creation of Israel.



Edit.Off-Topic.Noble Savage

and Btw I'll also add : the histry prooved you that you should not make Europe angry, because we can be the worsts of all.

And then, the pussies changed in Death bearer Panzers

[Martin N]

Its not israel, nor the west business what hezbollah or lebanon does, just keep our noses out and leave them to their own business, its our fault its gotten to this point, if britian hadnt screwed up by placing a jewish city in the middle of arab central we wouldent have this problem, then the jewish people launching there crusades for land we also wouldent have this problem.

I just love it how people try to paint hezbollah as the bad guys here, forgive me but israel invaded them twice, it wasnt the other way around.

Its the same shite all the time, whoever falls for "We may invade them, and kill them, but were only defending ourselves!" needs there head examined.