Obama has "backroom" deal with Pak's Generals?

[GeneralLee]

According to MSNBC's analysis of Obama's 100 days press conference, Obama at some point mentioned having a deal with Pakistan's military to secure their Nuclear arms in case their Government falls to the Taliban. I missed what he said as I was making dinner but I found their summary interesting. Could it be possible and what do you think Pakistan's civil government and people will think of this "deal"? Following that should we care what they think when it comes to Nuclear arms? I'll post a link when there is one (the press conference ended a few minutes ago).

[Dunecat]

I saw this as well, and it makes sense. It would be irresponsible to not seek alliance with the Pakistani military within the context of nuclear arms control.

Makes me feel warm inside.

[GeneralLee]

I saw this as well, and it makes sense. It would be irresponsible to not seek alliance with the Pakistani military within the context of nuclear arms control.

Makes me feel warm inside.

Im only curious how much we are paying per nuke and if we managed to negotiate a bulk purchase discount.

[danzig]

Well Ive always been under the belief since 9/11 and Taliban being driven out of rule that the US and the west had exchange of info/agreements with more trust worthy elements of Pakistan about their nukes in the event something happens. It just makes so much logical sense its a no brainer, though why anyone would admit it publically is pretty much stupid.

[Dunecat]

Well Ive always been under the belief since 9/11 and Taliban being driven out of rule that the US and the west had exchange of info/agreements with more trust worthy elements of Pakistan about their nukes in the event something happens. It just makes so much logical sense its a no brainer, though why anyone would admit it publically is pretty much stupid.

Right, I mean the Pakistani politicians probably don't feel warm inside about Obama's statement today.

[Sher Khan]

Falls to the Taliban? While they may have been popular enough to slowly overtake the Northern Alliance before 9/11, there's little chance they could take on Pakistan's military, let alone find enough popular support outside of their home base to even try.

[danzig]

Falls to the Taliban? While they may have been popular enough to slowly overtake the Northern Alliance before 9/11, there's little chance they could take on Pakistan's military, let alone find enough popular support outside of their home base to even try.

True but compare Taliban "power", size and influence in Pakistan today to what it was in 2001...these things grow over time and there is little doubt the Taliban in Pakistan today are much more an issue then they were in 2001. Who knows how it will be in a year, two, five etc if not addressed. Better to have plans in effect just in case.

[GeneralLee]

True but compare Taliban "power", size and influence in Pakistan today to what it was in 2001...these things grow over time and there is little doubt the Taliban in Pakistan today are much more an issue then they were in 2001. Who knows how it will be in a year, two, five etc if not addressed. Better to have plans in effect just in case.

That and Pakistan's "counter offensive" seems to be fumbling.

[Sher Khan]

Growth in the North-West Frontier isn't amazing; it's their home territory. They neither enjoy demographic support nor logistical advantage outside of Waziristan and Swat.

They took power in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which already enjoyed a measure of autonomy. The idea that they'll swoop down into the lower valleys as heroes ready to tackle a modernized war machine of any quality whether it be in 2 or 20 years is ludicrous.

The deals were most likely to remove a nuclear arsenal that may find its way into the wrong hands due to instability and rogue elements within the army or the ISI, but hardly a contingency for a possible collapse of Pakistan's democracy, military power, or both.

[Admiral Piett]

Growth in the North-West Frontier isn't amazing; it's their home territory. They neither enjoy demographic support nor logistical advantage outside of Waziristan and Swat.

They took power in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which already enjoyed a measure of autonomy. The idea that they'll swoop down into the lower valleys as heroes ready to tackle a modernized war machine of any quality whether it be in 2 or 20 years is ludicrous.

The deals were most likely to remove a nuclear arsenal that may find its way into the wrong hands due to instability and rogue elements within the army or the ISI, but hardly a contingency for a possible collapse of Pakistan's democracy, military power, or both.

It's not always about what military objectives they can achieve, its about what they can achieve politically. They will wear you down until you are weakened. That's the tactic of such groups. It's far more psychological than logistic. Considered how well they've been able to regroup and how easily they can replace their command structure shows that we should not underestimate their ability. It's just frustrating to the West that we are not making progress and under the pressures of war fatigue and recession, we want to see some kind of results. I really hope that the US does not expand into Pakistan, but it is looking to be more of a possibility.

[Phier]

If you really have a deal to secure the weapons if needed.

Why the hell would you mention it?

If this is true, and I have no idea if it was even really said, the Obama administration has a lot to learn about being the CIC.

Just because it sounds good or makes people feel you are in control you can't always say it. In the 1960 election Kennedy, ran on the 'missile gap' with the USSR. The perception was the the US could lose a nuclear war due to this perceived soviet missile superiority. Nixon knew this wasn't true from our various spy missions and knew the USSR was in no position to attack. He couldn't say jack about it though, as it was a piece of information we didn't want the soviets to know we had. Winning the presidency is less important than the survival of your nation.

I'm hoping very much there is either a mistake here in terms of what people think was said, or its some deep reverse psychology at work.

[Gumpfendorfer]

[Sher Khan: Growth in the North-West Frontier isn't amazing; it's their home territory. They neither enjoy demographic support nor logistical advantage outside of Waziristan and Swat.

They have large support in Baluchistan, the entire NWFP, not only that, groups as the LET who have about 8000 fighters, have their basis in the Punjab and do have a lot of support in their homebase. About 45% of the Pakistan population, the poor, have nothing to expect from any government, that's the base and recruitment pool the Taliban can use. For those poor and deprived the Taliban might just be an answer to many of their problems. The Taliban are a platform for social/economic change for millions and millions of Pakistanis.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/wo...stan.html?_r=1

Taliban Exploit Class Rifts in Pakistan
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — The Taliban have advanced deeper into Pakistan by engineering a class revolt that exploits profound fissures between a small group of wealthy landlords and their landless tenants, according to government officials and analysts here.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/wo...jab.html?fta=y

DERA GHAZI KHAN, Pakistan — Taliban insurgents are teaming up with local militant groups to make inroads in Punjab, the province that is home to more than half of Pakistanis, reinvigorating an alliance that Pakistani and American authorities say poses a serious risk to the stability of the country.

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/...otaliban-hs-02

Another myth about the militants operating in Fata and Malakand Division is that they are the latest avatars of the Pakhtun identity. They are not. Of course, some Pakistani Pakhtuns (as well as some non-Pakhtuns from Punjab and Karachi) have joined the neo-Taliban but there is no evidence that the Pakhtuns are prepared to abandon their Pakhtunwali. Besides, the neo-Taliban’s aversion to the Pakhtuns’ language, poetry, music, arts, cultural diversions and even their dress code is known. If the neo-Taliban had their way the Pakhtuns’ ethno-cultural identity could be as much under threat of extinction as the other ethno-cultural identities within the Pakistan family (Punjabi, Baloch, Sindhi, et al)

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/...th-karachi--10

KARACHI: At least 29 people were killed and over 40 others injured in a fresh wave of ethnic violence in different parts of Karachi on Wednesday. About 20 vehicles were torched.

Tension and panic gripped parts of the city as unidentified attackers went on a shooting spree, killing most of the victims at point-blank range

It is going to be very, very difficult to turn the momentum the Taliban have around in our favour for the simple fact that the state of Pakistan has little to offer and all but a few willing to defend it. Baluchistan is almost gone too, completely off the radar for most watching the news, but the situation is deteriorating their too quite fast.

They took power in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas which already enjoyed a measure of autonomy. The idea that they'll swoop down into the lower valleys as heroes ready to tackle a modernized war machine of any quality whether it be in 2 or 20 years is ludicrous.

So far the Pak military has lost all battles with the Taliban. All. The Pak Military exists on paper, but it is more of a commercial enterprise than anything else. They do not have the skills nor the equipment to fight this war. Then there is the problem of the ISI and that part of the Army that is sympathetic to the Taliban. More and more voices from within the Army are heard that the Pak Mil cannot afford to take the Taliban head on, fearing for a split in the Army. then there is the problem of the ISI yielding control over the Army, to what point nobody knows. The 20 million dollar question.

The deals were most likely to remove a nuclear arsenal that may find its way into the wrong hands due to instability and rogue elements within the army or the ISI, but hardly a contingency for a possible collapse of Pakistan's democracy, military power, or both.

The Pak military will never hand over their nukes to the Americans. A faction might want to do that, while the other factions rather hands them over to the Taliban if necessary. So how it will work out in a moment of acute crisis is anyone's guess. Zia transformed the Army into a far more religious entity, many of the officers have the same ideas as the Taliban.

The central problem in Pakistan, as well as in Afghanistan is that there is no functioning state left. Long story, but for a determined group as the Taliban it is fairly easy to kick in the door and destroy it. They don't need the support of the entire country. The communist were able to take control of Russia with a handful of highly motivated an organized group of men against an opponent which on paper was much stronger.

We have a similar situation in Pakistan I think. Unless the Army can unify itself and ally with the civil government they can take on the Taliban in a fight which will last for at least a decade, if not Pakistan's future looks bleak. I hope they do, they will need all the support from us. We should stop the wishful thinking and stop avoiding the hard fact that Pakistan alone is not able to stop the taliban advance.