Is Russia really an emerging power?

[Lord Consul]

First off, I'll ask our resident Russophobes to restrain themselves from posting the usual "Russkies arE EvilZ" or "spetsnaz suk go nato" stuff. I'm naively trying to start a meaningful debate here.

Russia is a Great Power and the world's second most powerful nation - military wise - after the United States. Russia has the world's largest nuclear stockpile, a vast army with highly trained units, a booming military industry and plenty of oil.

While it is true that Russia suffered a heavy loss of power and prestige after the end of the Soviet Union, it has since rebounded and reaffirmed itself as a Great Power on the world stage. Many analysts believe that Russia, together with the other BRICs and America, will be one of the defining players of the XXI century's politics.

I do believe they are wrong and am of the opinion that Russia is destined to become a Chinese satellite. Russia is a demographic time bomb - the Russian population is shrinking rapidly and that will undoubtedly constrain Russia's economic growth in the near future. It's also almost certain that the Russian Federation will not have the budgetary means to replace many pieces of the ageing Soviet war machine. There's only so much a commodity-based economy can do.

So, what do you think will be Russia's role in the global stage in, say, 50 years? Is Russia really an emerging power, not a fading one?

[danzig]

No they are still in my view a declining power despite some people insisting Russia basically reset itself after USSR ceased to exist so anything then doesnt count. Russiandrones please note I said declining power so Im not dismissing the power they DO have so dont get all bent out of shape, hell my own country is a declining power. Their bleak population growth is imo a rather huge factor.

As far as 50 years from now, obviously hard to tell but my guess (which will probably annoy the drones) is that Russia will be more on a path to become China's Canada. Nothing wrong with of course.

[Hippolord]

[quote=Lord Consul;4832225]First off, I'll ask our resident Russophobes to restrain themselves from posting the usual "Russkies arE EvilZ" or "spetsnaz suk go nato" stuff. I'm naively trying to start a meaningful debate here.

Russia is a Great Power and the world's second most powerful nation - military wise - after the United States. Russia has the world's largest nuclear stockpile, a vast army with highly trained units, a booming military industry and plenty of oil.quote]

True Russia is behnid the U.S. in miltary power BY FAR not denying russia is definatly in 2nd followed by china in 3rd due to there numbers. And once you reach 1000+ nukes it don't really matter how many beyond that you have cause you can destroy the whole world. Really after that mark it becomes a competition over who can blow up the earth so many times over.

[removeduser_052420]

A lot of economists don't take in the fact that Russia's natural resources (the driving factor of their growth) are not unlimited. Once Russia runs out of gas, it's ed.

[Dunecat]

A lot of economists don't take in the fact that Russia's natural resources (the driving factor of their growth) are not unlimited. Once Russia runs out of gas, it's ed.

With the Caspian's booming reserves, I doubt that'll happen soon.

[Dolgorukiy]

Anything between them regaining the superpower status and disintegrating along ethnic or factional lines is equally probable IMO. Lots can happen in the course of forty years, it all depends on the economic and political climates, technological advancements and the competence of their leadership or lack of thereof.

The same could be said about any other country though, forty years is simply too long a time to make any accurate prognosis, especially when it concerns Russia - no one could say for certain who's the top dog there NOW, much less in forty years.

[Faramir D'Andunie]

We need to have in mind that 50 years into the future can bring enormous changes. For example it would be hard to imagine back at 1900 that 50 years later Great Britain would no longer be an empire.

If demographics remain the same, if no important tenchological breakthroughs are made and if no event unbalances world economics then... yes the OP predictions about a declining Russia are possible.


However, personally I am more concerned over an economic crisis (this one or maybe a future one coming from the way this one is beeing handled so far) marking the end of US as a superpower and the start of a multipolar era.

[Panzerbear]

as always, Russia is not as strong or as weak as you think it is.

I personally have no doubt in my mind that Russia will continue to play a major role in world geopolitics, as it did in the last two centuries. it is quite obvious that there is no way in hell it will ever go back to communist ideology and it will continue to integrate into world economy. Western Europe, China and India will continue to be its main trade partners.

now whether or not it is truly "an emerging power" - it depends not only on its own development, but also the state of the global economy, the strength of its key allies and opponents. at any rate, Russia has already hit the rock bottom in mid 90s, so it has nowhere to go but up.

[Heathen Hammer]

Like many people said, we don't know what will happen in next 50 years. Current demographic situation in Russia is because of "perestroika" generation, so demohgraphics will improve in next 10-20 years.

[Lord Consul]

We obviously don't know what will happen in the next 50 years. But one of the reasons why Foreign Policy analysis is such a thriving area is that nations make decisions and take actions today based in what they think will happen in the immediate future/long term. There's no reason why we ourselves can engage in such exercise.

[Faramir D'Andunie]

As long as we keep in mind that all our analysis and predictions can be undone by some random factor that we overlook, yea nothing wrong of course.

As it has been mentioned earlier, after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia pretty much hit the bottom and can only go up from that point onwards.

As long as Russia is such an important player in the energy market we can't really see them not beeing important in geopolitics.

[Panzerbear]

As long as Russia is such an important player in the energy market we can't really see them not beeing important in geopolitics.

yes, Russia is true energy powerhouse, there is no doubt about it. but you also have to think in terms of its location - it is next to Europe in the West, next to Alaska, Japan and China in the East, it also pretty much controls Caucasus and Central Asia. no matter where you go in Eurasia - you will always encounter potential interests or influence of Russians - be it geopolitics or economics.

[YuriVII]

Well we will remain a power because we are the modern Byzantium. We are that bridge that connects the East and the West. So we will have a place just because of the geographic position that we occupy. Central Asia is our backyard and we are still able to adequatley project our influence into the Former Soviet Union (minus the Baltics).

We definently do have our problems and those problems such as the economy (like everyone else) and the demographic crisis. We need to find solutions and address these problems. For instance, I may need to have unprotected sex with a lot of St. Petersburg girls in order to regenerate the population. This would be a duty I would be willing to take.

[Visna]

For instance, I may need to have unprotected sex with a lot of St. Petersburg girls in order to regenerate the population. This would be a duty I would be willing to take.

FOR THE MOTHERLAND!!!

Yeah, we all have to make sacrifices in hard times...

[Aetius]

FOR THE MOTHERLAND!!!

Yeah, we all have to make sacrifices in hard times...

Heh...

That would be awesome, and it could only actually happen in Russia.

[Cluny the Scourge]

Putin will be ready for his war of reconquest of the USSR's old territories, as precursored by recent events in Georgia, by 2015 once his rearmament of Russia's military is complete. The West's failing resolve will permit this to begin, until panic breaks out at the true scope of Putin's goals and a relatively short but large-scale conflict will take place over large parts of Eurasia and Eastern Europe. This will end either with use of tactical nuclear weapons, or with a military coup in Russia. The long-term result will be the general ruination of Russia's economy for a generation.

[Faramir D'Andunie]

Were the events in Georgia an act of aggression or a reaction? Or perhaps a loud statement that they are willing to protect their interests in an area as important as Caucasus?

[YuriVII]

Were the events in Georgia an act of aggression or a reaction? Or perhaps a loud statement that they are willing to protect their interests in an area as important as Caucasus?

Is it possible to say "all of the above?"

[Treize]

Putin will be ready for his war of reconquest of the USSR's old territories, as precursored by recent events in Georgia, by 2015 once his rearmament of Russia's military is complete. The West's failing resolve will permit this to begin, until panic breaks out at the true scope of Putin's goals and a relatively short but large-scale conflict will take place over large parts of Eurasia and Eastern Europe. This will end either with use of tactical nuclear weapons, or with a military coup in Russia. The long-term result will be the general ruination of Russia's economy for a generation.

Fearmongerer
Not that you have to be afraid of Russia.

There planned purshases are not that interesting...

[ivan_the_terrible]

Nit-picking, but you contradict yourself, Consul. You pose the question is it an emergin power in the title, and then yourself say that it's a "Great Power". Perhaps you mean is it an emerging Super power?

If that's what you meant, I don't think it is one. The demographic problems and over-reliance on energy exports are too severe, in my opinion.

That said, I honestly don't believe China will ever surpass USA and Russia, let alone dominate them in any way. Not in the case of any foreseeable scenario anyway.