A dashing Dane with his own Facebook page has emerged as the favourite to thwart the ambitions of Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair of becoming the first “president of Europe”.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Liberal Prime Minister of Denmark since 2001, has been described by Silvio Berlusconi, the Prime Minister of Italy, as Europe's best-looking leader.
He is quietly gathering support as an ideal compromise candidate for the new role of president of the European Council, the forum in which EU leaders make decisions such as setting targets for greenhouse gases and biofuels.
Mr Blair had been widely described as a front-runner for the job created by the Lisbon treaty, which is due to start on January 1 and also involves representing Europe overseas. Although he has been backed publicly by President Sarkozy of France and may receive a boost from the re-election of his friend Mr Berlusconi, Mr Blair is not thought to have the crucial support of Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor.
Until the inquiry into payments Mr Ahern received in the 1990s engulfed him, the man who stands down today as Irish Prime Minister was seen as an ideal choice. The long-serving leader even talked openly of wanting the job, something considered extremely risky in top-level EU power-broking.
Berlin is understood to favour Jean-Claude Juncker, the long-serving Prime Minister of Luxembourg, or Wolfgang Schüssel, the former Austrian Chancellor, but Britain will try to block both men as too federalist.
Although this will be the first big EU job appointed under qualified-majority voting rules, the successful candidate will need to be acceptable to Germany, France and Britain, the biggest financial backers of the EU.
This has led to a growing view that the two early favourites, Mr Blair and Mr Juncker, will cancel each other out, clearing the way for a compromise candidate — which leaves Mr Rasmussen in an ideal position.
“Anders is intelligent, he is liked, he is a centrist and he is keen,” an EU diplomat who knows the Danish leader said. He added that Mr Rasmussen, who has never publicly expressed interest in the EU job, has started learning French, one of the main working languages in Brussels. “Whenever there is a big EU job, the leaders usually look round the table first and only look outside if there is no acceptable candidate,” the diplomat said.
One of the arguments against Mr Rasmussen is that Denmark opted out of EU policy on justice and defence as well as the euro. He is planning referendums to reverse some or all of these. “The feeling is that, if he pulls them off, he will have brought Denmark closer to the core of Europe,” a diplomat said. “At the end of the day, the question is not how much support you can gather but whether anybody is going to put their foot down. No one will put their foot down over Anders.”
The candidate will be chosen at the same time as the new post of high representative or “EU foreign minister”, meaning that the sharing of the spoils by political groupings will be important. If Javier Solana, the Spanish social democrat, continues as EU foreign representative and José Manuel Barroso, the centre-right former Portuguese Prime Minister, continues as European Commission President, the stage will be set for a Liberal such as Mr Rasmussen.
The Dane's favourite quotation is from Theodore Roosevelt: “It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood.”
This suggests that “Fogh” is prepared to push for a greater prize than Denmark - the chance, in the words of Valéry Giscard-d'Estaing, the former French President, to be Europe's first George Washington.
CONTINENTAL CONTENDERS
Anders Fogh Rasmussen 55. Prime Minister of Denmark. Liberal centrist. Consensus builder. Widely acceptable compromise. Times odds: 5-2 favourite
Tony Blair 55. Middle East peace envoy, adviser to JP Morgan — and former British Prime Minister. Big-hitter well known in Washington. Times odds: 4-1 joint second favourite
Jean-Claude Juncker 53. Prime Minister of Luxembourg. Christian Democrat. Federalist. Backed by Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and France. Times odds: 4-1 joint second favourite
Wolfgang Schüssel 62. Former Austrian Chancellor, with long experience in office. Christian Democrat. Federalist tendencies. Backers: Germany and Austria Times odds: 7-1
José Manuel Barroso 52. President of European Commission. Centre-right. Admired for Commission role. Times odds: 8-1
Bertie Ahern 56. Steps down as Irish Prime Minister today. Centrist. Well-liked deal-maker. Under cloud of financial inquiry. Times odds: 12-1
Aleksander Kwasniewski 53. Former President of Poland. Centre-left; former Communist. Only candidate from “New Europe”. Backed by Poland. Times odds: 14-1
Angela Merkel 53. Chancellor of Germany — first eastern German to hold post. Centre-right. Widely acceptable — if throws hat in ring. Times odds: 20-1
Leading Candidate for EU President also leading candidate for NATO head
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Originally Posted by Elrond
