BBC-ABC Poll on Afghans

[Farnan]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/h..._poll_2009.pdf

Very interesting...

Some info:

4% of Afghans favor a return of the Taliban
8% of Afghans in some way support the Taliban

Afghans are positive about the future

32% think the US is doing well
36% believe the US is doing Fair
27% believe the US is doing poorly

33% think NATO is doing well
36% believe NATO is doing fair
26% think NATO is doing poorly

82% of Afghans want the current government to remain in power.

69% still believe the US led overthrow of the Taliban was a good thing though its down from a high of 87%

63% of Afghans support the presence of the US in Afghanistan (though down from 78%)

59% of Afghans support the presence of NATO in Afghanistan (though down from 78%)

only 25% of Afghans believe that attacks against NATO forces can ever be justified. (lower than high of 30% but higher than low of 13%)

Afghans are mixed on increasing size of NATO forces

45% of Afghans believe that NATO forces should stay either permanently or till security is reached
51% within 2 years
37% within 1 year
21% immediately

Afghans have lost confidence in the US in ability to maintain security, but believe Afghan government can

Afghans oppose the use of Air Strikes

7% of Afghans like the Taliban
6% of Afghans like bin Laden
47% of Afghans like the US
8% like Pakistan
38% like Great Britain
57% like Iran
60% like Germany
74% like India


Generally it seems Afghans do not like Pakistan...


What does this all mean?

The US has a much better spot right now than it had in Iraq, with much greater support. However its losing support yearly and its in a down slide. We need to modify our actions to reverse this down slide and regain the support of the Afghans (at one time 83% of Afghans liked the US).

However despite some claims, the Afghans hate the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

[Barry Goldwater]

Who were the fools that wanted a restoration of Taliban rule? Thankfully they make up a negligible population in Afghanistan

[aarons got funky fresh]

Who were the fools that wanted a restoration of Taliban rule? Thankfully they make up a negligible population in Afghanistan

Taliban sympathsizers and the Taliban themselves no doubt.

[Sphere]

The problem with Afghanistan isn't a hostile population, its geography. Its a very large country with small dispersed villages that are difficult to get to. Even if a majority of the population dislikes the Taliban they can freely operate amongst these small villages and intimidate the local population because it is impossible to keep a continued NATO or National Afghan presence in every village. Likewise, warlords can operate well in this de-centralized society.

[Farnan]

Also a note, those that hate the Taliban and bin Laden really hate them (very unfavorable rating for Taliban: 79% and bin Laden 82%) while hate those that don't support the US and UK can probably be won over (somewhat unfavorable rating for US: 25% and UK 26%)

[Azog 150]

Pretty interesting. Particularly surprised that 82% want the current Afghan government to remain in power- I have always been led to believe that most Afghans hate it and view it as very corrupt.

I suppose in general that is good news (Although as you said, favor ratings are dropping). Hopefully, with the troops surge, we can rely less on air strikes which obviously are particularly dangerous for civilians.

It would be interesting to view the results based on the area of Afghanistan they were drawn from.

[Carach]

Also a note, those that hate the Taliban and bin Laden really hate them (very unfavorable rating for Taliban: 79% and bin Laden 82%) while hate those that don't support the US and UK can probably be won over (somewhat unfavorable rating for US: 25% and UK 26%)

they still be hating for our 19th century exploits. (UK)

personally, id say its pretty difficult to get accurate statistics out in such a place as afghanistan.

[Farnan]

However, like the Greek Communists, the Taliban cannot win unless it can convince a significant portion of the population that a return of Taliban rule is favorable to the current situation. Right now that seems unlikely but to become likely they would need a return to warlordism.

NATO cannot win if it can't regain the support of the Afghan population. As long as they see themselves choosing between evils rather than choosing NATO as a good it will be hard to gain the necessary support.

According to the poll the two biggest problems are security and corruption. Security can possibly be solved through use of a Take-Hold-Consolidate-Clear (last two steps down simultaneously) strategy as described by the French expert David Gallula. Corruption is harder though.

[mrmouth]

Security can possibly be solved through use of a Take-Hold-Consolidate-Clear (last two steps down simultaneously) strategy as described by the French expert David Gallula. Corruption is harder though.

All do respect to Galula, but it doesn't apply, overall, to a country as spread out as this. Or with the staggering terrain difficulty.

We are never going to see the numbers of troops needed to field that approach. And we are likely going to see major NATO/ISAF players pull out in coming years.

As long as the enemy has a base outside of Afghanistan, you cant really apply any COIN doctrine and expect to see the results you should. The ultimate answer lies in Pakistan swallowing its pride and letting ISAF forces over the border.

[Bovril]

Do you have information on the sample size and, far more importantly, the sample make up? I have my doubts doubts that it was very representative given the dangers and difficulties involved in accessing many areas of Afganistan. Its also important to figure in respondant cooperation and social desirability. How many Taliban supporters would agree to participate in such a pole? How many Afghans would misreport their views on women in deference to a representative of western institutions?

[Farnan]

Do you have information on the sample size and, far more importantly, the sample make up? I have my doubts doubts that it was very representative given the dangers and difficulties involved in accessing many areas of Afganistan. Its also important to figure in respondant cooperation and social desirability. How many Taliban supporters would agree to participate in such a pole? How many Afghans would misreport their views on women in deference to a representative of western institutions?

1500 people from all 34 provinces. They used live in-person interviews and has a 2.5% margin of error.

It was conducted for BBC, ABC and the German ARD.

http://a.abcnews.com/PollingUnit/story?id=6787742

[Bovril]

1500 people from all 34 provinces. They used live in-person interviews and has a 2.5% margin of error.

It was conducted for BBC, ABC and the German ARD.

http://a.abcnews.com/PollingUnit/story?id=6787742

Thanks for that info. The methodology seems pretty respectable from the information given. But the vital issue of individual respondant selection was not adressed. The poll is certainly geographically representative and gender nuetral. However, I have no idea from the info provided how the individual respondants were found. Since this is widely regarded as the most important cause of sampling error in sociology, it's kind of important.

None the less, that article did alay many of my doubts. Alas, the sample size is not large enough to do valid regional break downs. That would be very interesting as well.

[Erik]

Do you have information on the sample size and, far more importantly, the sample make up? I have my doubts doubts that it was very representative given the dangers and difficulties involved in accessing many areas of Afganistan.

I share these doubts.

And it's very important to sample all regions, because Afghanistan is very divided between the north and south.

edit: oh, thanks Farnan, that link clears things up.

[Farnan]

I share these doubts.

And it's very important to sample all regions, because Afghanistan is very divided between the north and south.

http://a.abcnews.com/PollingUnit/story?id=6787742

The South was more highly surveyed to get a more accurate prediction there.

[Akhil_The_Great]

This results of this poll could biased because of the different remote locations throughout Afghanistan, the northern region is extremely different from the southern Kandahar,

EDIT: nvm i read the note stating it used people from all 34 provinces, but only 1500 people? that is kinda small for a country of like 20 million

[Farnan]

This results of this poll could biased because of the different remote locations throughout Afghanistan, the northern region is extremely different from the southern Kandahar,

Which is why they polled people from everywhere...

[Akhil_The_Great]

dam we Canadians are always forgotten for what ever we do, We got the 3rd biggest deployment of troops, and we are also one of the 3 forces actually fighting (others are US & UK)

[Farnan]

Its cause the poll was done for British, American and German companies.

[removeduser_052420]

The Afghans hate us because of our secret service, the ISI, which caused a -load of trouble during the afghan war. But then again, we let 2 million afghans inside our country, and then they blow themselves up..... o well....Let them hate Pakistan, as long as they fear pakistan.

[Carach]

The Afghans hate us because of our secret service, the ISI, which caused a -load of trouble during the afghan war. But then again, we let 2 million afghans inside our country, and then they blow themselves up..... o well....Let them hate Pakistan, as long as they fear pakistan.

because pakistan's only problems have been solely caused by afghan immigrants? :/

funny that, and here we were thinking that its largely pakistanis and other foreigners entering afghanistan and blowing themselves up too..so i guess it goes both ways