Solution to the De... Recession

[Zhangir]

This is one of the major, major, major challenges facing the World for the last half of the century, and yet we haven't got a thread on it.

I suggest we all discuss it very very thoroughly.
I also suggest that this be the central thread for all Global Financial Crisis Events, since I haven't seen one around. I have also enthusiasm to discuss not only ways out of it, but ways of preventing it, etc.
If you are sensible and also Hate this Credit Crunch, you can even join a Facebook group on it. I said the "Solution to the De... Recession", as a mockery of A Prime Minister's Question Time in the UK about a few weeks old.


If moderators disagree or this thread have been around, I appologize.

Now, what made me worry is the Bank of England Base rate as of today, the 5th of march, being lowered to it's lowest point since the creation of the Bank, lower than in the Great Depression.

the 0,5%






This Graph belongs to the Bank of England and/or BBC, so I linked it here.

Now
Let us look at the first economy of this World. The United States of America.

It was reported last week that the US economy had shrunk at an annual rate of 6.2% in the last three months of 2008 official figures show, a far sharper fall than previously reported.

A random quote, from the BBC regarding the US economy.

Now let me ask a couple of questions
So WHat Is Your Solution to this Financial crisis?
How Long Will it last Do You think?
Has it Affected You personally?

What would be the worst case scenario?

Added to the Recession, we have the Global Warming, the rising food prices before that. The previous Depression led to the Second World War.
Will we have to rearm, to get out of the recession?
And etc. etc.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7521250.stm

The credit Crunch Timeline.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ssion_2008.png


██ Countries in recession as of December 2008
██ Severely affected countries

An Impressive piece of work, not by me, but by someone called 23prootie, in Wikipedia.

Just to make you a little bit more informed if you know nothing yet.

[Zephyrus]

The banks have been at the center of this. And they always have. When the federal reserve was charterd in 1913, who could have foreseen these events occur?

[Ummon]

There is no solution, you see. The system has reached a state transition. We are, essentially, screwed.

With the contraction of consumer spending, it is highly developed countries which will suffer more. The shrinking of the resource base and the weakness of western countries is also quite likely to start a world war.

I am being optimistic.

[Zhangir]

Well..
State transition? AS in the nationalisation of capital? ))
come on didn't we learn from the past?

[Ummon]

It's not a matter of learning. World economy is a network. As such a physical system. The system is in transition towards a random graph and it will then likely segment itself into subgraphs.

Assuming we have free will, we don't have the knowledge to face this crisis because it stems from globalization (which we haven't experienced yet). And we surely don't have the intelligence and power to govern this scale of processes.

[Zephyrus]

It's not a matter of learning. World economy is a network. As such a physical system. The system is in transition towards a random graph and it will then likely segment itself into subgraphs.

Assuming we have free will, we don't have the knowledge to face this crisis because it stems from globalization (which we haven't experienced yet). And we surely don't have the intelligence and power to govern this scale of processes.

Random graphs? Subgraphs? Can some1 dumb this down enough for me to peruse through, plz? I understand its going to get worse, but what do these charts mean?

[Ragabash]

It's not a matter of learning. World economy is a network. As such a physical system. The system is in transition towards a random graph and it will then likely segment itself into subgraphs.

Are you saying that our economical model is in the process of collapsing and being renewed by some random graph, or that the globalization is tearing itself apart and plain old mercantilism is once again going to take dominant role on economics?

EDIT: I'm not quite sure did I got the post as originally meant...

[Ummon]

It is like when a living being dies: then it decomposes as bacteria eat its remnants.

[Running Nose]

The recession is my fault. See, last year I left the army with a sense of optimism. I was going to get a job, and a girlfriend and start(or resume) my civilian life. Right there I should have known...

Every time I feel optimistic about something, something bad happens. Felt optimistic about my relationship with a girl and it ended badly. Felt optimistic about the future and we're in a frakking recession.

So...sorry.

I promise that if we ever get out of this mess, I'll be a miserable bastard for the rest of my life so that hopefully we, well, you, could live your lives in peace.

And that's a promise!

[Zephyrus]

The recession is my fault. See, last year I left the army with a sense of optimism. I was going to get a job, and a girlfriend and start(or resume) my civilian life. Right there I should have known...

Every time I feel optimistic about something, something bad happens. Felt optimistic about my relationship with a girl and it ended badly. Felt optimistic about the future and we're in a frakking recession.

So...sorry.

I promise that if we ever get out of this mess, I'll be a miserable bastard for the rest of my life so that hopefully we, well, you, could live your lives in peace.

And that's a promise!

See? Karma's a even when you didn't do anything to it...

[Ummon]

Probably we shall have local markets, but the cost of the collapse of the global one will affect real economy heavily. I am expecting famines, too.

I hope I am mistaken.

The recession is my fault. See, last year I left the army with a sense of optimism. I was going to get a job, and a girlfriend and start(or resume) my civilian life. Right there I should have known...

Every time I feel optimistic about something, something bad happens. Felt optimistic about my relationship with a girl and it ended badly. Felt optimistic about the future and we're in a frakking recession.

So...sorry.

I promise that if we ever get out of this mess, I'll be a miserable bastard for the rest of my life so that hopefully we, well, you, could live your lives in peace.

And that's a promise!

Then we have the solution, let's lynch you western-style. :wink:

[Viking Prince]

I do not understand the focus on the interest rate for sterling. It is a record low. So what? Sterling today is not the sterling of the early 19th century. To compare the two is folly at best. Sterling is not the center of the financial world and England is no longer the center of the industrial world. It is entirely feasible that the same will be true of the USA in a few years. Again -- so what?

None of this has anything to do with a single recessionary drop in the global economy.

[Martin N]

The depression in the 30's was as you said saved by world war 2 and the huge manufacturing, and arms creation, so massive amounts of jobs was made, the way we came out of the recession in the 1990s was the information age, whole new products and technology was created, and that led to the internet, and massive amounts of jobs.

What we need now, is a whole new line of jobs, anything that will advance us, say alternate energy, or medicine and health care thats where the jobs will be, not all these bailouts and stimulus, which coincidently end up going to all the ceos and workers in bonuses, bailouts dont stop the job losses, bailouts dont stop the companies going broke, bailouts dont stop the economy going bust, not one good thing did that bailout of george bush did, NOT ONE GOOD THING, alternativeley, and i think this is what will happen, a new war, most probably with pakistan, iran wouldent be viable as there not a nuclear power yet, infact around about october the pentagon issued a statement saying we could go to war to get out of this recession, not just with a minor, but superpower, who knows, one things for sure, it wont happen with all these bailouts.

[Barry Goldwater]

The depression in the 30's was as you said saved by world war 2 and the huge manufacturing, and arms creation, so massive amounts of jobs was made, the way we came out of the recession in the 1990s was the information age, whole new products and technology was created, and that led to the internet, and massive amounts of jobs.

What we need now, is a whole new line of jobs, anything that will advance us, say alternate energy, or medicine and health care thats where the jobs will be, not all these bailouts and stimulus, which coincidently end up going to all the ceos and workers in bonuses, bailouts dont stop the job losses, bailouts dont stop the companies going broke, bailouts dont stop the economy going bust, not one good thing did that bailout of george bush did, NOT ONE GOOD THING, alternativeley, and i think this is what will happen, a new war, most probably with pakistan, iran wouldent be viable as there not a nuclear power yet, infact around about october the pentagon issued a statement saying we could go to war to get out of this recession, not just with a minor, but superpower, who knows, one things for sure, it wont happen with all these bailouts.

Holy , me and Martin N just agreed on something! The Apocalypse must be nigh!

[JP226]

Interest rates of the pound and the US economy has exactly what to do with each other?

[Kiljan Arslan]

someone trying to find a easy cure to something that isn't easy.

[Zephyrus]

The solution? revolution.

[Vizsla]

I know.

All that Keynesian spending in the last Great Depression made bugger all difference. What made the difference was the Second World War. Thus it is clear that World War 3 is the answer.
As the economic situation gets more and more dire militarist nationalistic parties will take control and before we know it Germany will annex Austria and invade The Czech Republic and Poland.
All we need to do is sit back and wait for Armageddon. Couldn’t be simpler really.
I plan on moving to somewhere isolated with lots of canned vegetables and a wood burning stove for about 15 years.

[Kiljan Arslan]

The solution? revolution.

yes lets get out the guns and go kill some people (SARCASM)

[Sidmen]

before we know it Germany will annex Austria and invade The Czech Republic and Poland.

The Allies sufficiently brainwashed Germany to be pacifist after WW2; we'll never see Germany invading anyone again.