Do such things exist or are they fantasy? I'm talking the kind of diseases that would just sweep across countries leaving millions and millions dead or very, very sick.
Do such things exist or are they fantasy? I'm talking the kind of diseases that would just sweep across countries leaving millions and millions dead or very, very sick.
- Smallpox
- Ebola, except Ebola kills so quickly, it's hard to spread.
The next epidemic will be bird flue, but this wont be anywhere close to a 'world destorying' disease.
But in the future? Who knows.
Smallpox is considered one of the major bioterrorism threats. Because it's been erradicated everywhere and no longer occurs naturally, people become more vurnerable to infection if it was reintroduced artifically.
I think the mortality is about one third, and the survivors are brutally scarred.
It's also highly contagious.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program.
Smallpox has killed billions since it arose in prehistoric human populations. It currently the only human disease to be wiped out in the wild entirely. However, it is somehow arose again, it would be devastating. Smallpox spreads very rapidly, very easily, and has a decent incubation period so one could spread it to thousands without even realising before the first symptoms occur. And the more common strain that existed, Variola major, had a 36% fatality rate, which is significant if it affected large-scale populations. Globalisation would only make it easier. The only saving grace is that Smallpox rarely killed in devastating bursts like influenza epidemics; it killed a lot of people over a long period of time. Plus there's the fact that we have a vaccine for it, and all samples of Smallpox are kept in high-security storage by the CDC and the Russian equivalent. It's unlikely to arise in the wild again.
A real potential problem is Influenza H5N1, or Avian flu; except that it is not currently quite as deadly as H1N1 was. H1N1, or the Spanish Flu, no longer exists in the wild, thankfully, but it would take a slight shift in H5N1 for it to become as deadly. The reason the Spanish Flu was so devastating was that it caused exceptionally violent cytokine storms, basically becoming an autoimmune disease that liquified the lungs, and destroyed the respiratory system. Young adults, with strong immune systems, became the most susceptible; very different from most Influenza strains that are more damaging to those with weak immune systems. The Spanish Flu was one of the few, and only very well-documented, level-five pandemic, with between 50 and 150 million deaths within the span of a year and a half. If H5N1 mutated to cause violent cytokine storms like H1N1, it would be even more devastating, what with globalization and highly concentrated populations hampering any quarantine attempts that might be implemented. Avian flu is possibly the most devastating and plausible future pandemic.
Ebola is deadly enough. Perhaps too deadly, because it generally kills you faster than it can spread. I mean, it is an epidemic where it is, but it's local. It's not even close to being a pandemic like the Spanish Flu.
Or, as Exarch mentioned above, Malaria. The thing with that pathogen, though, is that it is specifically vector-borne. It has to be carried via something else, like mosquitoes, ticks, flies, or fleas; it's not airborne like Influenza, Ebola, or other deadly diseases, so as long as mosquito and other such populations are kept in check by their natural predators, it won't become more of a public health problem than it already is.
Last edited by MaximiIian; March 04, 2009 at 08:02 AM.
- DemocracySpoiler Alert, click show to read:
-Some sort of super flu like the Spanish one me thinks![]()
I think HIV/AIDS could very well have the potential to destroy the world in the future. However, I'd place my money on plague (bubonic plague especially) before anything else. It's still a big concern, even with our technology and knowledge of medicine today.
Most, most unlikely. A virus that spreads through sexual intercourse or blood contact won't be able to spread efficiently and fast enough. Afrika, for example, has millions of people dying early from AIDS, but those whole population is still growing.
Plus, there's always condoms.
Now, if HIV mutated to become airborne, that's a whole different story...
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program.
We also know that HIV can also be spread through contact with an infected person's urine, saliva, and even tears, and although there are only like 16 cases of these types of transmission methods ever recorded world-wide, there remains a very real possibility that a pandemic of the virus could occur in the future because of the said methods (that's not taking into account possible evolution trends of the virus, either; like you said, if the virus ever became airborne, we'd all be screwed).
I'm not saying it's impossible, but very unlikely. It's true that HIV is present in urina, saliva and tears (and sweat if I'm not mistaken) but in concentrations far to low to cause an infection. Those 16 cases were probably allready immunodeficient of another cause, allthough I have not heard of it. Truth is, HIV is very vurnable to extremes, it needs a fixed pH range, temperature etc.
For every action there is an equal and opposite government program.
It's going to happen eventually. We need culling, and we will be culled.
I agree with boofhead (!).
Our over-use of antibiotics is already strengthening the effectiveness of many bacterial strains in overcoming our immune systems. Why else, would deadly (staph, and other) infections in hospital patients be rising so dramatically in recent years? It's an evolutionary arms race where our technologies are accelerating the microbes' adaptation rates, while our own immune systems are if anything weakening. I predict that whatever gits us will be an uber-strength, highly evolved strain of some common organism.
Nimhill: Doesn't air kill HIV?
Last edited by chamaeleo; March 04, 2009 at 06:02 PM. Reason: hiv comment
Giving tax breaks to the wealthy, is like giving free dessert coupons to the morbidly obese.
IDIOT BASTARD SON of MAVERICK
mega nuclear bomb mixed with anthrax
Gonna echo what has already been said. I believe the next great disease will be an evolved strain of something that's immune to treatment.
Ebola has been mentioned, but it needs too special conditions and it kills too quickly for it to become a world threat. Sure, it can wipe out some villages in central Africa in no time, but it'll have major difficulties spreading.
A mutated airborne bird flu could be really bad news.
Smallpox as well. The good news about that one is that strains have been kept, mostly in weapons labs.
Under the stern but loving patronage of Nihil.