32% BS

**Dewy** · February 20, 2009, 11:39 PM

I tested basic spies with there 32% opening the gates becuase i almost never get it. You should get it once every three times but to be fair lets say once every 10 times. After 100 loads not even one time did my spy open the gates, why is thr chance so low but still so high?

**Viking Prince** · February 21, 2009, 12:00 AM

Nope -- do the math. It is not 32% * 3 =/= 100% chance. Your first attempt is 1/3. 2/3 of the time you will fail on the first and then 1/3 chance of success. If you have failed on the first two attempts 4/9 of the time -- you will still have 1/3 chance on the third attempt. In general you will fail 2/3 ** 3 or 8/27 of the time.

EDIT: based on a reread of the post -- I was commenting on the mechanics of a single pass with three spies. I have no comment on 100 reloads. well one comment -- too much time on somebody's hands. After the first or 6 reloads, perhaps a rethink on where the random element was being generated. I find that I cannot save a game at any point and play differant ideas from the point on -- too many random elements are set early in the game structure it seems to me.

**Manoflooks** · February 21, 2009, 12:20 AM

And if you reload, it wont change anything unless different events happen, if you do the same thing it wont affect anything at all.

**axnsan** · February 21, 2009, 12:27 AM

if you reload before besieging the settlement i think it should have different results

**claudius2007** · February 21, 2009, 01:43 AM

It's only going to have different effects if you load before you send the spy in the city. That's the only place where the chance ever gets updated it seems.

**Kinshejsi** · February 21, 2009, 09:56 AM

It doesn't change anything if you reload.
I know it, I tried it a lot of times in hotseats

**claudius2007** · February 21, 2009, 06:16 PM

Originally Posted by Kinshejsi

It doesn't change anything if you reload.
I know it, I tried it a lot of times in hotseats

Most interesting. I will experiment myself.

**Pink Beard** · February 22, 2009, 02:18 AM

Originally Posted by Kinshejsi

It doesn't change anything if you reload.
I know it, I tried it a lot of times in hotseats

Well that's not 100% true... I've had princesses nearby an enemy/neutral general, saved before trying to mislead them to join my faction, and asked for a marriage.
With about 40% chances I had to reload a couple of times. Altough I didn't managed to get the guy (so your right on that, it changes only little),
I did got either a disgraced princess or marriage rejected (loss in charm). :hmmm:

**Owain Glyndŵr** · February 22, 2009, 02:46 AM

You literally loaded 100 times, Dewy? O_O

**General Tony** · February 22, 2009, 01:55 PM

Well I personaly dont count in spies to open gates anyway. First reason is that if the succed where is the fun of scaleing the walls and smashing gates in a seige?! The only reason I send spies out is to see what units the enemy army has.

**Yojimbo** · February 22, 2009, 04:09 PM

just send in many spies sending in 3-4 usaly has the gate open for you always.

**NeedsMoreNinjas** · February 24, 2009, 10:59 AM

Yeah if you try, fail, reload, try, etc. in my experience you will fail every time no matter what the % is.

Now if you try, reload, do something else (like move a unit or something) then try again you will have the % chance of succeeding.

**eisenkopf** · February 24, 2009, 12:22 PM

From my experience, a "random" number is generated only at certain instances, e.g. the start of your turn. There might be other triggers for the (re)generation of your "random" number, but I haven't figured them out. Reloading does not help. This "random" number is generated and used throughout your turn (unless some action triggers a new number to be generated).

Often, I have planned several missions for one turn. Sometimes, many had a low chance of success but then all succeeded, while sometimes many of them had high chances of success - and all failed! So, the "random" number thing clearly is broken.