The next hundred years.

[MathiasOfAthens]

http://www.amazon.com/Next-100-Years.../dp/038551705X

Anyone think any of this is even possible, remotely or otherwise.

* That the U.S., which is now an adolescent power -- immature and impulsive -- will grow into the full glory of its power in the 21st century. By 2040, however, expect the unexpected. Two strong rivals will emerge to challenge us, and I probably shouldn't blow the freshness of the surprise by revealing here who Friedman believes it will be. (Just be sure, for one, not to buy real estate too close to the Rio Grande.)

* The industrialized world is facing a dramatic population drop, which will bottom out in 2050. As a result, we're in for a severe global labor shortage. The result? Today's immigration debate will flip 180 degrees as countries actually compete for immigrant laborers.

* Al Qaeda and the jihadist threat? They're history mostly, just a nuisance. (John Kerry was basically right in 2004.)

* Ditto environmental problems and energy crises: a single technological breakthrough, space-based solar power, will change everything.

* In the 21st century, minerals will become scarce on earth. Mining operations on the moon will be significant.

* The art of war is moving into orbit, and a robust space industry will develop around massive new expenditures by the U.S. and other countries.

* The U.S. will be challenged by some surprising new powers. Hint: you might want to start following news from Warsaw, Mexico City, and Istanbul a little more closely.

[Hun Birodalom]

* That the U.S., which is now an adolescent power -- immature and impulsive -- will grow into the full glory of its power in the 21st century. By 2040, however, expect the unexpected. Two strong rivals will emerge to challenge us, and I probably shouldn't blow the freshness of the surprise by revealing here who Friedman believes it will be. (Just be sure, for one, not to buy real estate too close to the Rio Grande.)

The U.S. could potentially rise in power but radical changes would have to be made in the areas of energy source, economy and foreign policy. The guy also says that Europe will decline in power. This I cannot accept as a possibility. I see Europe as reinventing itself through the European Union. As European nations become more reliant on each other to compete with the superpowers of the world, Europe will gain power the most. I see Europe becoming a stronger and more united continent than any other. The conflict within North America that is predicted would cripple the U.S., so how would it still remain the #1 power?

* The industrialized world is facing a dramatic population drop, which will bottom out in 2050. As a result, we're in for a severe global labor shortage. The result? Today's immigration debate will flip 180 degrees as countries actually compete for immigrant laborers.

I think the population replenishment will stabilize itself and immigration will be subject to more administration than before. The reason natural population growth is at a decline is because of immigration. Jobs are taken by immigrants where citizens are available for the work for higher wages. Corporations are outsourcing work for cost effectiveness. The decline in the importance and increase in the advertisement of the "bad nature" of marriage and having kids is the number 1 reason for the lack of natural population growth. Interestingly many nations, including the U.S. still manage to push overpopulation even further (immigration).

* Al Qaeda and the jihadist threat? They're history mostly, just a nuisance. (John Kerry was basically right in 2004.)

In the long term I would agree with this one. Jihadist threat seems to be at an all time low for now. Terrorist groups are being constantly monitored and accounted for, they have no room to commit crimes in the western world.

* Ditto environmental problems and energy crises: a single technological breakthrough, space-based solar power, will change everything.

For me, this is impossible to predict right now. There isn't really anything pointing toward "Space Solar Power" as a cost effective, scientifically possible and world saving solution for the energy crisis. I think it will be a variety of solutions including solar energy on earth, hydrogen fuel cells, wind power, tidal power generation ...etc.

* In the 21st century, minerals will become scarce on earth. Mining operations on the moon will be significant.

I don't think there is anything that suggests that there are usable minerals on the moon in enough quantity and quality. I could be wrong, but regardless of that I just don't see anyone having the funds to operate on the moon any time soon (not in the next 100 years or possibly ever).

* The art of war is moving into orbit, and a robust space industry will develop around massive new expenditures by the U.S. and other countries.

Missile equipped satellites are a definite possibility and will likely be implemented by the U.S., Russia, India, China, EU.

* The U.S. will be challenged by some surprising new powers. Hint: you might want to start following news from Warsaw, Mexico City, and Istanbul a little more closely.

Mexico becoming a military force to reckon with would be a huge surprise. Sure they have a good economy and a lot of people, but they lack the leadership, technology and real wealth (usable funds) to do much. If they tried, the U.S. would step in before they could accomplish anything of importance. The Mexicans living in the U.S. would have no impact on the situation. The U.S. wouldn't give up 1/3 of it's territory that easily.
Russia on the other hand has shown some recent activity (Georgian War) that does remind me of the old (and evil) U.S.S.R. The election was a joke (rigged), and it appears the population doesn't mind it. They actually want Russia to be like it was a few decades ago. That's a real potential threat.
Turkey is a nation that has shown no threatening activity for the western world for decades. I really don't see that changing in the next 100 years. The only reason the Ottoman Empire was in existence is because at the time, virtually all Muslim nations were united and were emerging in the Middle East and Africa. As soon as they met real resistance in Europe their advancement was stopped for centuries before being reversed completely. Today, all territories except for North-West Africa are occupied by strong nations who would never give in to Turkey. For Turkey to expand, it would have to establish itself as the true power of the middle east. Turkey's influence is over exaggerated by the book.

[IrishHitman]

- US overtaken as top economy by Eurozone (almost there) and China.
- US military power remains top for a good while longer, but will be eventually overtaken by China, and Europe if the political will is there.
- Rise of India as an economic and military power.
- Decline of the Middle East as important as oil resources become more scarce and less important.
- Second rise of Russia, with decline due to less reliance on oil/gas later.
- Rise of Latin America and India as important manufacturing areas, as labour in China becomes too expensive.
- Rise of European Union, provided population growth stabilises properly, and integration of immigrants in the long term is successful.
- Turkey joining the EU at some point, with Croatia. Possibly followed by FYR Macedonia (with the dispute settled), the Central Balkans (when their political issues are sorted out), and Israel if US influence survives long enough.

The book seems to dismiss the EU entirely.

[Bwaho]

i predict robot wars

[Caelius]

There's already been a thread posted on this (in this very forum no less).

There's also several videos that can be found on YouTube where Friedman goes more into depth about the reasoning behind his claims:

The guy also says that Europe will decline in power. This I cannot accept as a possibility. I see Europe as reinventing itself through the European Union. As European nations become more reliant on each other to compete with the superpowers of the world, Europe will gain power the most. I see Europe becoming a stronger and more united continent than any other. The conflict within North America that is predicted would cripple the U.S., so how would it still remain the #1 power?

Which shouldn't be surprising.

Friedman has largely been correct in his analysis of European underestimation and "giddyness" in trying to depict the US in decline, in contrast to Europe's "rise" through the EU.

The reality is that it isn't going to happen.

[IrishHitman]

Which shouldn't be surprising.

Friedman has largely been correct in his analysis of European underestimation and "giddyness" in trying to depict the US in decline, in contrast to Europe's "rise" through the EU.

The reality is that it isn't going to happen.

Keep telling yourself that.

While the EU does indeed enjoy indirectly bashing the US, that does not mean that it will not emerge as a power.

Almost, but you seem to put too much faith into it. Its just an articificial orgnization. Not a real power.

No superpower has ever been created by diplomacy alone.

Ireland is still a puny island.

I'm not saying the EU shall become a power through diplomacy alone.
Nor does a lack of precedent forbid such an event at any rate.

You're using the present tense. That is wise.
I'm referring to the future, as is this entire thread.

And why do you have to give Ireland a dig?
What has Ireland done to you?

[Aetius]

The book seems to dismiss the EU entirely.

Almost, but you seem to put too much faith into it. Its just an articificial orgnization. Not a real power.

No superpower has ever been created by diplomacy alone.

Ireland is still a puny island.

[Aetius]

History of EU in my opinion; :p

France: *sighs* So guys, we totally got pwned in WWII

West Germany: Sry bout all that, hugs?

France: K..*hugs Germany*

Belgium: d00ds, stop making out. We have bigger problems I can’t sell mah steel or coal. Goddam tariffs and cheap foreigners sappin mah economy

West Germany: Don’t matter, I got loads of money from USA ^__________^

France: Stfu, USA sucks…lets band together to sell our Steel and coal.

West Germany: Sounds kewl. I’ll invite my bro Italy.

Belgium: Hey guise! Netherlands wants in too!

France: Sure w/e…hey wait this is actually kinda awesome

*ECSC formed*

Belgium: Oh Shi-! this isn’t working USA still has better steel and coal!

West Germany: Yeah this sux hard. Maybe lets just give up.

*1967 Oil Embargo*

West Germany: Goddamit! Israel is attackin those Arabs and pissin them off. I has no oil…im screwed!!!

Israel: Lol. Totally pwning them tho. Also, thanks for the lands...you won't regret it.

France: Wat! *schemes* Hell nah! Lets just make some nuclear plants…but first all you guys MUST sign dis little treaty…

*European Community formed*

France: muahahahaa everything is going according to plan!

Denmark: What did you just say?

France: stfu…go make some more Legos.

Netherlands: Guys, border checks are a total drag…screw national security and lets just open them up. Sound good?

France: Great idea! *tosses Netherlands a cookie* Also lets invite Greece Spain and Portugal.

West Germany: Free beach access wewt!

USA: Hey guise whats goin on here?

USSR: WTF GTFO!

USA: NO U TEAR DOWN THAT WALL!

USSR: k…

*East Germany joins Germany*

Germany: Sweet! Moar lands!

France: *high fives Germany* We are so awesome. Lets just create an awesome party called the EU and invite my old roomate Austria.

Denmark: Don’t invite Sweden , that guys a total jerk. Also his gf Finland is a totally ugly.

France: No one cares what you say. Lets have a party with everyone!!!

*Maastricht Treaty signed*

Germany: This club is so epic.

France: I know right…so lets get moar ppl.

Belgium: YES MOAR

Spain: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD MOAR

UK: Not sure if I am liking this...

*Eurozone*

Poland: Thanks for inviting me, lovin the flag bro.

France: Np, np…and in return for that kewl blue flag and some new papermoney all you gotta do is merely submit your sovereignty to us. Sound fair rite?

Poland: Yeah that sound good to me.

EU: Hey USA, look at our GDP of 16.83 trillion. Massive win?

USA: When did we start competing with each other? I thought we were BFFs?

EU: NO WE ARE NOT FRIENDS ANYMORE. You are not invited to my b-day, etc. Soon you be mah beyatch.

USA: Lol w/e my military pwns you. Also…I am 1 guy. How many d00ds did you have to get to compete even near to me?

EU: Uh…27…

USA: Pathetic. Don’t bother me anymore…I have to go call my creditors…they been callin me all day…brb

*recession*

Turkey: Hey guise I thought it would be pretty sweet if…

EU: GTFO

China:

[hellheaven1987]

You completely forgot UK.

[6th Vigil]

UK: Not sure if I am liking this...

You completely forgot UK.

After that one line we locked ourselfs in our room, the island, and only came out for dinner.

[Zephyrus]

History of EU in my opinion; :p

France: *sighs* So guys, we totally got pwned in WWII

West Germany: Sry bout all that, hugs?

France: K..*hugs Germany*

Belgium: d00ds, stop making out. We have bigger problems I can’t sell mah steel or coal. Goddam tariffs and cheap foreigners sappin mah economy

West Germany: Don’t matter, I got loads of money from USA ^__________^

France: Stfu, USA sucks…lets band together to sell our Steel and coal.

West Germany: Sounds kewl. I’ll invite my bro Italy.

Belgium: Hey guise! Netherlands wants in too!

France: Sure w/e…hey wait this is actually kinda awesome

*ECSC formed*

Belgium: Oh Shi-! this isn’t working USA still has better steel and coal!

West Germany: Yeah this sux hard. Maybe lets just give up.

*1967 Oil Embargo*

West Germany: Goddamit! Israel is attackin those Arabs and pissin them off. I has no oil…im screwed!!!

Israel: Lol. Totally pwning them tho. Also, thanks for the lands...you won't regret it.

France: Wat! *schemes* Hell nah! Lets just make some nuclear plants…but first all you guys MUST sign dis little treaty…

*European Community formed*

France: muahahahaa everything is going according to plan!

Denmark: What did you just say?

France: stfu…go make some more Legos.

Netherlands: Guys, border checks are a total drag…screw national security and lets just open them up. Sound good?

France: Great idea! *tosses Netherlands a cookie* Also lets invite Greece Spain and Portugal.

West Germany: Free beach access wewt!

USA: Hey guise whats goin on here?

USSR: WTF GTFO!

USA: NO U TEAR DOWN THAT WALL!

USSR: k…

*East Germany joins Germany*

Germany: Sweet! Moar lands!

France: *high fives Germany* We are so awesome. Lets just create an awesome party called the EU and invite my old roomate Austria.

Denmark: Don’t invite Sweden , that guys a total jerk. Also his gf Finland is a totally ugly.

France: No one cares what you say. Lets have a party with everyone!!!

*Maastricht Treaty signed*

Germany: This club is so epic.

France: I know right…so lets get moar ppl.

Belgium: YES MOAR

Spain: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD MOAR

UK: Not sure if I am liking this...

*Eurozone*

Poland: Thanks for inviting me, lovin the flag bro.

France: Np, np…and in return for that kewl blue flag and some new papermoney all you gotta do is merely submit your sovereignty to us. Sound fair rite?

Poland: Yeah that sound good to me.

EU: Hey USA, look at our GDP of 16.83 trillion. Massive win?

USA: When did we start competing with each other? I thought we were BFFs?

EU: NO WE ARE NOT FRIENDS ANYMORE. You are not invited to my b-day, etc. Soon you be mah beyatch.

USA: Lol w/e my military pwns you. Also…I am 1 guy. How many d00ds did you have to get to compete even near to me?

EU: Uh…27…

USA: Pathetic. Don’t bother me anymore…I have to go call my creditors…they been callin me all day…brb

*recession*

Turkey: Hey guise I thought it would be pretty sweet if…

EU: GTFO

China:

Ahhh, COD4 game chats...

And I'm seriously doubting Turkey will rise as the mediterranean superpower here. They would piss off a great number of belligerent people if that happened...:

[Musthavename]

* The U.S. will be challenged by some surprising new powers. Hint: you might want to start following news from Warsaw, Mexico City, and Istanbul a little more closely.

Mexico becoming a military force to reckon with would be a huge surprise. Sure they have a good economy and a lot of people, but they lack the leadership, technology and real wealth (usable funds) to do much. If they tried, the U.S. would step in before they could accomplish anything of importance. The Mexicans living in the U.S. would have no impact on the situation. The U.S. wouldn't give up 1/3 of it's territory that easily.
Russia on the other hand has shown some recent activity (Georgian War) that does remind me of the old (and evil) U.S.S.R. The election was a joke (rigged), and it appears the population doesn't mind it. They actually want Russia to be like it was a few decades ago. That's a real potential threat.
Turkey is a nation that has shown no threatening activity for the western world for decades. I really don't see that changing in the next 100 years. The only reason the Ottoman Empire was in existence is because at the time, virtually all Muslim nations were united and were emerging in the Middle East and Africa. As soon as they met real resistance in Europe their advancement was stopped for centuries before being reversed completely. Today, all territories except for North-West Africa are occupied by strong nations who would never give in to Turkey. For Turkey to expand, it would have to establish itself as the true power of the middle east. Turkey's influence is over exaggerated by the book.

Uh, Warsaw is in Poland... not Russia.

But on that prediction, how would Poland become a power like that... I can see a case for Mexico & Turkey, but Poland?

I'm predicting a dimishing of power from the US / Russia, with China, India & Brazil gaining influence (at least economically). The EU will steadily "gain" power, before everyone realises they actually hate each other and it collapses in on itself.

[Pious Agnost]

I remember the essay this guy did... Basically he started with 'The future is unpredictable' He then went on to... Well try and predict the future

[Hun Birodalom]

Uh, Warsaw is in Poland... not Russia.

But on that prediction, how would Poland become a power like that... I can see a case for Mexico & Turkey, but Poland?

I'm predicting a dimishing of power from the US / Russia, with China, India & Brazil gaining influence (at least economically). The EU will steadily "gain" power, before everyone realises they actually hate each other and it collapses in on itself.

Yes, I am aware that Warsaw is the capitol of Poland. I didn't comment on Poland because I didn't feel the need. Russia is a much more likely threat. I don't know why this guy is predicting so many conflicts in the future. All developed countries know that a large scale war would result in nuclear devastation. Even Poland wouldn't be so reckless as to wage war on Russia and Europe.

What makes you think the EU is gonna collapse in on itself?

Which shouldn't be surprising.

Friedman has largely been correct in his analysis of European underestimation and "giddyness" in trying to depict the US in decline, in contrast to Europe's "rise" through the EU.

The reality is that it isn't going to happen.

I'm not sure what you're referring to when you say it isn't going to happen. Please clarify.

[Exarch]

friedman is wrong on so many counts
also,
EU will never be a superpower, too much opposition
it'll remain an economic superpower and a trade bloc

[IrishHitman]

friedman is wrong on so many counts
also,
EU will never be a superpower, too much opposition
it'll remain an economic superpower and a trade bloc

Opposition erodes over time, especially with the EU in the lives of its members states so much already.

Furthermore, a day will come when Europe has an enemy.
And if you know your history, then you'll know what will happen then.

[Helm]

"Ditto environmental problems and energy crises: a single technological breakthrough, space-based solar power, will change everything."

I agree but I think we would actually get our energy from the construction of these.

[Son of Mao]

China and Russia will keep gaining power

US will decline unless something weird happens like they get another Microsoft like they did in the 80s which saved them at the time and allowed them to out do the Soviet Union.

Brazil is going to come out on top as the leader in South America (not Venezuela, like it wants to)

Iran will get nuclear weapons unless an all out war ensues.

The European Union will be the first test to see if aglomeration states work if it does I expect to see many many more union popping up to compete(North American Union, North African Union, Boliviarian South American Union). Things are just going to get more and more interesting.

[Faramir D'Andunie]

I think US saw the height of its power and influence during the 1990's decade and while it will remain a major player will not be unchallenged by other states.

I expect industrial world to find a way to fully automate construction and any work required major labour populace, rather than simply import huge numbers of immigrants.

I agree that energy crises and enviromental issues will force the world to look for some revolutionary new energy source.

Lack of minerals could also be countered by operations in ocean selfs and generally in the bottom of the oceans as well instead of space. Although eventually it will come down to cost.

What else, jihadist issues. I agree with OP that it will eventually be controlled/die out and become another interesting subject for historians to argue.

As for new powers, I will disagree about the EU. I can see the EU collapsing over its bureaucracy or simply member states continue to be unable to provide a united cause/front in times of crises. At best it will remain as a union of states with a bit more advanced cooperation than we have today. For the rest one can make endless possible scenarios, and the possibility of a new revolutionary energy source could makes those scenarios even more complex.

[Exarch]

russia will not be superpower again
it's too reliant on oil, and the bubble will burst on that one soon
the EU needs an common enemy to galvanize itself like france was to bismarkian germany

brazil is fraught with so many problems it shouldnt even think about superpower status