Light at the End of the Tunnel

[Exarch]

Good News;
we may be seeing the beginning of a very long end to the worldwide financial crisis:

Vale Expects Rebound In China Demand

Tuesday, Jan 27, 2009

Brazilian iron ore producer thinks Chinese economy has stopped slowing and is increasing spending.Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce believes the end of the downturn is in sight. The Brazilian iron ore producer plans to go on a spending spree in 2009 to align output and shipments with expected increased demand from China.
On Thursday, Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce Chief Executive Roger Agnelli told reporters in Brazil that China's economy has stopped weakening and the global economy may stop declining in the second quarter, according to TradeTheNews.com. Agnelli said that Vale plans to boost investment by 40.0%, to $14.0 billion in 2009, up from $10.0 billion n 2008.

Fear not folks, soon this whole financial nightmare will soon be over; it seems the largest population on earth is starting to become the largest consumers on the planet...

[Big War Bird]

Iron ore is an industrial product. Unless and until China allows it currency to be traded freely, China won't be a consumer nation.

[exponent]

There is only a mouth at the end of the tunnel.
I estimate two to three hundred million will starve to death
within four years, and after that it'll get really bad.

Growth as you know it has ended.
This is a catastrophic deflationary depression.

Although they won't admit this in public,
there has been a cascade in the financial derivatives,
containing 95% of all money. 1,2 quadrillion in value,
where the planetary GDP is only 50 trillion.
About one third of all "money" on the planet was destroyed last year,
rendering 2008 with a loss of about 350 trillion, what has been
accounted so far through stock losses, hedge funds and credit default swaps
is only a fraction of the true losses.

Maybe they'll release a pandemic, you know, thin out their numbers.
The planet is saturated in every way, the only way forward is down.

The World for Man; Man for Gravity.

If you want a vision of the future,
imagine a boot; stamping on a human face, forever.

[Roman Rapper]

There is only a mouth at the end of the tunnel.
I estimate two to three hundred million will starve to death
within four years, and after that it'll get really bad.

Growth as you know it has ended.
This is a catastrophic deflationary depression.

Although they won't admit this in public,
there has been a cascade in the financial derivatives,
containing 95% of all money. 1,2 quadrillion in value,
where the planetary GDP is only 50 trillion.
About one third of all "money" on the planet was destroyed last year,
rendering 2008 with a loss of about 350 trillion, what has been
accounted so far through stock losses, hedge funds and credit default swaps
is only a fraction of the true losses.

Maybe they'll release a pandemic, you know, thin out their numbers.
The planet is saturated in every way, the only way forward is down.

The World for Man; Man for Gravity.

If you want a vision of the future,
imagine a boot; stamping on a human face, forever.

Well put.

[Zephyrus]

Well put.

The problem with 1984 is that it doesn't take into account the human spirit of endurance through hardship. It also doesn't offer a positive commentary on individual actors, revolutionaries and "champions" who arise from the huddled masses in a temporary, though brilliant, blaze of glory. People do not stay the same. There is always something different, always another outlook on life. Even if we do return into the dark ages, another event will take us out of it, a force majeure, that lights the darkness which would lead to another enlightenment.

Some men can't be reasoned with. Others can't be killed. Still others are content to sit in the darkness while their brethren seek to ascend into the light.

This isn't a time for despair. Its a time for determination. Its the time of accountability for our actions and an end to complacency.

You want change? Don't just say it, do it!

[bushbush]

Iron ore is an industrial product. Unless and until China allows it currency to be traded freely, China won't be a consumer nation.

the last time a bunch of developing Asian countries was "persuaded" by US to allow its currency to float, there was the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997...

China has learned the lesson, unless it has cleaned up its banking sector, allow free floating of RMB will bring disaster.

[Panzerbear]

I fundamentally disagree with this statement. as long as China keeps on consuming at the rate they are right now, it will be a consumer nation .

the speculative nature of Chinese currency exchange rate to other main currencies is irrelevant.

[Panzerbear]

hahaha... the end is near !!!111

you kids havent even seen in your entire lives. live through a complete country collapse (aka Eastern Europe in 1989-1993) for once and then complain. what you have right now is a temporary recession. big freaking deal. world is not going to end tomorrow.

[Viking Prince]

If the Chinese uan were allowed to float, why do you assume it would rise? Chinese citizens could just as easily sell the currency in exchange for foreign investments. Also, the Chinese will need to poor investment into the local rural economies. Buying commodities from foreign sources for domestic consumtion is not the same as using the commodities for export in finished goods. Again a push down on the Juan. As the west is showing with lowering interest rates to stimulate local consumption, the Chinese can also do the same -- again pushing down the exchange rates.

As far as the end of the tunnel as a general sentiment -- If the economy picks up in the last half of the year, yes. If the major corporations continue to shed jobs, no. The world has relied for too long on personal debt to grow the economy. Until personal consumption is more based on current income, this problem is not going to go away. Heck, a manufacturer of glass panels for TVs is cutting jobs because the industry has overbuilt capacity on the latest growth in consumer electronics. Over capacity coupled with a reliance on the credit card expansion is a huge bubble bursting just as the housing bubble burst.