Could Iraq recover into a...

[Arto]

Middle-East superstate?

Let's look at the current post-WW2 Germany and Japan. Both are modern states if not then superstates. If the USA would spend as much money as they did to Bundesrepublik Deutschland and Japan, could Iraq become a strong (in all the aspects) Middle East state?

[dogukan]

No way....Germany had a good base to build uopn. Iraq hasn't....people are badly educated and are in general conservative. They are not unified and many leaders are fighting for their own power. Also west is interested in sucking Iraqi oil....add the fact that Iran and Syria would not be in good relations with Iraq which would make things worse. Additionally population is pretty low....this can be turned into an advantage though sine low quantity can have more quality much easier. I mean educating people, finding jobs would be easier. But I doubt it will happen in this case.

[Calamari]

No way....Germany had a good base to build uopn. Iraq hasn't....people are badly educated and are in general conservative. They are not unified and many leaders are fighting for their own power. Also west is interested in sucking Iraqi oil....add the fact that Iran and Syria would not be in good relations with Iraq which would make things worse. Additionally population is pretty low....this can be turned into an advantage though sine low quantity can have more quality much easier. I mean educating people, finding jobs would be easier. But I doubt it will happen in this case.

If Iraq were to sell the oil it could fund some major public works like hospitals and real policing force.

What that country needs is for everyone to stop slapping each other and get on with rebuilding. Japan and Germany(well one half anyway) didn't have splinter factions making the place even worse. They were actualy quite British about it all and said "ah, I see we lost, jolly good show, erm, would you be so kind as to put my house back together?". Of course us being british we did , along with America...

[rusina]

Dude, they are muslims, ofcourse they can't.

[Arto]

Dude, they are muslims, ofcourse they can't.

That's it! The answer I was looking for!

[Calamari]

and here was me thinking it would be a real discussion abo;ut the geo-politcal state of Iraq .indeed.

[Sphere]

"Iraq" doesn't have a unified government. There are three large partitions, and even more tribal divisions under these. Without a civil war, or a unification a la 1800's Germany, Iraq is in no position to become a super-power any time soon.

Not to mention that they are extremely dependent on exporting oil. Even as powerful in the region as Iraq was under Saddam, an embargo was able to cripple the entire country.

[Calamari]

"Iraq" doesn't have a unified government. There are three large partitions, and even more tribal divisions under these. Without a civil war, or a unification a la 1800's Germany, Iraq is in no position to become a super-power any time soon.

Not to mention that they are extremely dependent on exporting oil. Even as powerful in the region as Iraq was under Saddam, an embargo was able to cripple the entire country.

But if they play by the rules this time there will be no embargo in which case we have a prosperous Iraq

[dogukan]

But if they play by the rules this time there will be no embargo in which case we have a prosperous Iraq

Well the problem that Iraq woN't save herself simply by getting money through oil. Additioanlly woN't be equal. So you'll have rich people at hand and a very poor badly educated population, pretty much like in Saudia Arabia.
And it's not the only problem.....unfriendly neighbours, the fact taht west is actually looking to get easy oil deals, a very badly educated population, chaos and an ununified state. Things are certainly not bright for Iraq.

Additinonally what kind of industry can they do? Their natural resources as far as I know aren't that great.

[Sphere]

But if they play by the rules this time there will be no embargo in which case we have a prosperous Iraq

They will still be politically crippled internally, as there are three hostile factions within Iraq vying with eachother for power and oil money. The considerable power of tribes also weakens any type of central government.

[Old_Scratch]

If Japan can recover from having almost all of their cities either firebombed or nuclear bombed, then I think there is hope for Iraq. As long as something crazy doesn't happen, like an Islamic revolution, I think they should be ok. Maybe in the distant future we will be buying Iraqi cars and electronics. Well, we do from previous US conflict zones, including Korea. But, maybe not.

[Juli26]

Maybe they will advance like other states but the max they can reach in less than 30 years is the level that they had before the war. Maybe in 40-50 years they can become a petrol superpower or they can become like the United Arab Emirates but they have a long way to go and I don't think that would be easy.

[Hesus de bodemloze]

Thy won' t recover soon, because of there religious conflicts. These conflicts are raging on for centuries, i don' t really see these conflicts get solved any time soon now.

[magpie]

Without an honest Sadam type of leader. I think they are screwed.
The shia's are very cosy with Iran, so I think we can see which way the wind is blowing in that quarter
The sunni followers are kind of caught in the middle, as the oil is north and south of their region, they will get damn all.
The Kurds will have Turkey to contend with.
Its not looking good for a democratic Iraq.
magpie.

[Farnan]

The shia's are very cosy with Iran, so I think we can see which way the wind is blowing in that quarter

The Shi'ite Exiles (minus Maliki who broke with Iran recently to pursue a Nationalist agenda) are, the Shi'ite Stay-Behinds are anti-Iran.

The sunni followers are kind of caught in the middle, as the oil is north and south of their region, they will get damn all.

Hence why the recent oil-sharing agreement was important.

The Kurds will have Turkey to contend with.

Depends on what the Kurds do with the PKK.


The answer to this question is...
maybe.

[Calamari]

Can't they just all go home put the kettle on and have platonic gripes with with each other. Just like the UK.

The Scots hate the English and the Irish, The Irish hate the English, The English hate everyone. Proof that you can make a succesful country despite its population not being able to stand one another

[Bovril]

Superstate is a bit strong IMO. Can it become a stable state with decent civil society and incerasing wealth? Meh, its not impossible. I rather suspect foreign interferance has set it back a hell of a long way since the end of the first gulf war though.

[Heathen Hammer]

If they get rid of current puppet government and somehow become independent and rapidly recover their economy + a good army to protect all that..
They'll need a good and strong leader..

[Caelius]

This thread went downhill fast.

Apart from Farnan and maybe Old-Scratch there hasn't been much of any kind of intelligent commentary on the present situation in Iraq as it really is.

Alot of it is juxtaposed supposition that either have no factual evidence to support such claims, or are woefully outdated perceptions that ceased being accurate years ago.

[HansDuet]

Anything is possible.

Though I think they need a new "Saddam" to keep peace...