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    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact With U.S.
    By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON

    BAGHDAD — The Iraqi cabinet voted overwhelmingly Sunday to approve the security agreement that sets the conditions for the Americans' continued presence in Iraq from Jan. 1 until the end of 2011.

    All but one of the 28 cabinet ministers who attended the two-and-a-half-hour session voted for the agreement and sent it to Parliament for consideration, a huge relief to the United States, which had been in intense negotiations with the Iraqis for nearly a year.

    The United Nations Security Council resolution that allows U.S. troops to operate in Iraq expires Dec. 31, and, without an extension of the resolution or a separate agreement with the Iraqis like that approved by the cabinet on Sunday, forces of the U.S.-led coalition would have no legal mandate to operate.

    “This is the best available alternative,” the Iraqi government spokesman, Ali al-Dabbagh, said shortly after the vote. “We have always said this is not a perfect solution for the Iraqi side and it is not a perfect solution for the American side. But it is a procedure which was forced by circumstances and necessity.

    “This is the time after the progress in the security situation to transfer the security file to the Iraqi side, step by step.”

    The decision of the 37-member cabinet, essentially a microcosm of the Parliament, is expected to be a good indicator of whether the agreement will pass. The assembly has not yet announced the date of its vote, but it is scheduled to go into recess on Nov. 24.

    The draft approved Sunday requires coalition forces to withdraw from Iraqi cities and towns by the summer of 2009 and from the country by the end of 2011. An earlier version had language giving some flexibility to that deadline, with both sides discussing timetables and timelines for withdrawal, but the Iraqis managed to have the deadline set in stone, a significant negotiating victory. The United States has around 150,000 troops in Iraq.

    For months, the fate of the pact has been in doubt as Iraqis have pressed for more changes on a variety of issues, including jurisdiction over operations by U.S. troops and the flexibility of the withdrawal date. The United States, which had wanted the pact concluded by midsummer, gave significant concessions. Iraqi officials said minor tweaks were being made as recently as last week.

    Under the agreement, U.S. soldiers are still guaranteed immunity except in cases of serious felonies committed while off duty outside their bases.

    “We welcome the cabinet's approval of the agreement today,” said a spokesperson from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. “This is an important and positive step.”

    Many members of Parliament from Tawafiq, the Sunni bloc, said they were still undecided on the pact, arguing that a national referendum was crucial to approval. Parties representing about one-third of that bloc's members have indicated that they would support the agreement in its current form.

    The Kurds, who had recently expressed hesitation about the agreement despite weeks of solid support, seem to have decided on approval. The Kurds control more than 50 seats in the 275-member assembly.

    “We have already expected that the cabinet would pass this agreement, because this is the best option,” said Mahmoud Othman, an independent Kurdish member of Parliament. “Our Kurdish leaders are with the agreement.”

    Leaders of some of the smaller blocs, like Iraqia, a secular group representing 24 lawmakers, and Fadhila, a Shiite party that includes 15 members of Parliament, said on Sunday that they had not yet taken a stance on the agreement because they had not seen the final draft.

    In a crucial development, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most influential Shiite cleric in Iraq, indicated on Saturday that he would support whatever decision is arrived at in Parliament as representative of the will of the Iraqi people. Shiite officials who met with the ayatollah said eh found the latest draft acceptable, if not perfect; Ayatollah Sistani also made clear that he did not side with politicians who refused any agreement with the United States out of hand.

    “The people who reject this agreement did not give us a logical alternative,” an official in the ayatollah’s office said Sunday. “We respect their position, but we support the majority decision.”

    The anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr had called for armed resistance against any agreement that allowed a continued U.S. presence in Iraq.

    “I repeat my demand to the occupier to leave our land without keeping bases or signing agreements,” Sadr said in a statement read to thousands of supporters at Friday prayers. “If they keep bases, then I would support honorable resistance.”

    Ayatollah Sistani is enormously influential among the majority Shiite population; in 2004, when he wanted to put pressure on the Americans to hold direct elections, he called upon his followers to march by the hundreds of thousands in a peaceful but powerful demonstration of force.

    Dabbagh said of the Sadrists: “You cannot guarantee a 100 percent approval of anything. They are performing and they are practicing their role in Iraqi democracy right now and they are expressing their opinion in a peaceful way and not a violent way, which we encourage.”

    Stephen Farrell, Tariq Maher, Riyadh Muhammed, Muhammed Hussein, Suadad al-Salhy and Abeer Mohammed contributed reporting.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/wo...gewanted=print

    Its good to see this is very likely to pass and has Grand Ayatollah Sistani's support. That is a major boon to its acceptance among Iraqis.
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

    —Sir William Francis Butler

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    The anti-American Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr had called for armed resistance against any agreement that allowed a continued U.S. presence in Iraq.

    “I repeat my demand to the occupier to leave our land without keeping bases or signing agreements,” Sadr said in a statement read to thousands of supporters at Friday prayers. “If they keep bases, then I would support honorable resistance.”
    Looks like Sadr wants a fight.

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    King Edward III's Avatar Primicerius
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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    No brainer.
    According to the Theory of War, which teaches that the best way to avoid the inconvenience of war is to pursue it away from your own country, it is more sensible for us to fight our notorious enemy in his own realm, with the joint power of our allies, than it is to wait for him at our own doors.

    - King Edward III, 1339

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by ЯoMe kb8 View Post
    Looks like Sadr wants a fight.
    He is a coward and all talk. How many times has he "wanted" a fight over the years then backed down with his tail between his legs. I actually believe some of the articles early on post invasion that described him as a bit mental.

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Note that, with these fanatics victory is not the goal, but chaos. Even a few more bombs would reverse the gains by the 'surge'.

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by ЯoMe kb8 View Post
    Note that, with these fanatics victory is not the goal, but chaos. Even a few more bombs would reverse the gains by the 'surge'.
    To what end though? I think by the sable rattling then backing down Sadr has actually hurt any credibility he has among the "true believers" and the rest are busy enjoying some sense of stability return to the country. So if Sadr's goal is to spark chaos he is failing rather big in the regard.

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Sadr is mainly active in the South around Basra thus a British total withdrawal would counter act his other threat.

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by ЯoMe kb8
    Even a few more bombs would reverse the gains by the 'surge'.
    A few bombs aren't going to reverse the effects of the Surge, or counteract the changes on the ground the Sunni Awakening has led to.

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    If Sadr calls for an all out revolution against the occupier and their allies, yes it will reverse the gain from the 'surge' and would directly throw Shia militias against Sunni militias laying the foundation for a civil war under Americas nose. The best thing to do would be to negotiate some kind of settlement which Obama [If he sticks to his promises] has said he will do. Sadr has said if they [US] only remain in bases, the resistance will be peaceful and honourable.

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by ЯoMe kb8
    If Sadr calls for an all out revolution against the occupier and their allies
    He's done that several times already, the results haven't been pretty for him, or his followers.

    You're sorely mistaken if you perceive Al Sadr to be some heavily influential leader amongst the masses of the Iraqi populace. The fact is he isn't, and what power he did have has been decreasing at an exponential rate for more than two years now.

    The fact that this pact has Grand Ayatollah Sistani's support means it will be well received by a very vast majority of Iraqis across the country, regardless of Sadr's protests against it.

    The best thing to do would be to negotiate some kind of settlement which Obama [If he sticks to his promises] has said he will do.
    Expect to be disappointed like Mikelus Trento then.

    Sadr has said if they [US] only remain in bases, the resistance will be peaceful and honourable.
    Sadr's in no position to be dictating terms.

    Considering he has no direct affiliation or authority within the Iraqi Government, or to be speaking on its behalf, just adds more weight to his illegitimacy as a so-called "national figure".

    His power base is all but gone, and his capacity to translate his threats and agenda into hard power via his militias in JAM was wiped out some time ago.

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by Caelius View Post
    You're sorely mistaken if you perceive Al Sadr to be some heavily influential leader amongst the masses of the Iraqi populace. The fact is he isn't, and what power he did have has been decreasing at an exponential rate for more than two years now.
    I didn't I said, Basra. Where British troops are stationed.

    The fact that this pact has Grand Ayatollah Sistani's support means it will be well received by a very vast majority of Iraqis across the country, regardless of Sadr's protests against it.
    That is the hope of course, but there will be the few loyalists in his power base, and if this whole war has taught us anything is that a tiny minority can cause great problem if done right.

    Expect to be disappointed like Mikelus Trento then.
    Actually I expect Obama to negotiate some kind of withdrawal as he discussed and was received well by AL Maliki when Obama met him. However considering who he is bringing on board to his team.....things may not be so.

    Sadr's in no position to be dictating terms.
    Keep telling yourself that.

    Considering he has no direct affiliation or authority within the Iraqi Government, or to be speaking on its behalf, just adds more weight to his illegitimacy as a so-called "national figure".
    And Sistani does? Both are merely religious ayatollahs, in a country which happens to be very religious. You don;t need government legitimacy to hold influence in a place like this.

    His power base is all but gone, and his capacity to translate his threats and agenda into hard power via his militias in JAM was wiped out some time ago.
    Good, I don;t want to see Iraq spiral into Civil War.

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Sistani is far more powerful than Sadr, Sadr's gang lost a lot of power after the Sunni Awakening, and I doubt they could must a major fight now. If Sistani comes out directly against Sadr, Sadr is dead.

    There is also the fact the Mahdi Army's fighting wing has been disbanded...

    From the looks of it, Sadr's opposition to the pact will be political not military. He will set his party up as the anti-coalition movement and try to win votes in the provincial and national election.

    In all honesty, the majority of Iraqis are liking the current status of relative peace and if anyone tried to change that they will not be very popular.
    Last edited by Farnan; November 16, 2008 at 02:47 PM.
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

    —Sir William Francis Butler

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by Farnan View Post
    There is also the fact the Mahdi Army's fighting wing has been disbanded...

    From the looks of it, Sadr's opposition to the pact will be political not military. He will set his party up as the anti-coalition movement and try to win votes in the provincial and national election.
    Well that is good news I guess. Acceptance of the democratic system albeit not with enthusiasm.

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    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by ЯoMe kb8 View Post
    Well that is good news I guess. Acceptance of the democratic system albeit not with enthusiasm.
    I'm not saying for sure, but how he mentions "honorable" resistance, how he recently ordered his militia to lay down the arms, and how he seems to be trying to imitate the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in making his organization a humanitarian one that helps the poor (thus increasing his popular appeal).
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

    —Sir William Francis Butler

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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by Farnan View Post
    I'm not saying for sure, but how he mentions "honorable" resistance, how he recently ordered his militia to lay down the arms, and how he seems to be trying to imitate the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in making his organization a humanitarian one that helps the poor (thus increasing his popular appeal).
    That's what my analysis was, but in the volatile political climate nothing is for certain, and nothing is by all means clear. Of course we are always optimistic.

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    Farnan's Avatar Saviors of the Japanese
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    Default Re: Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact

    Quote Originally Posted by ЯoMe kb8 View Post
    That's what my analysis was, but in the volatile political climate nothing is for certain, and nothing is by all means clear. Of course we are always optimistic.
    Just as there is a cycle of violence, I believe there is also a cycle of peace. Peace is contagious in these types of situations, as soon as one group in the cycle of violence opts out of violence it can trigger the cycle of peace.

    By cycle of peace I mean this:

    Group A's militia stops killing Group B, thus Group B no longer needs its militia to defend themselves from Group A, and this militia stops making revenge attacks against Group A so Group A no longer needs its militia to defend themselves from Group B. As the militias stop launching attacks and revenge attacks its now safer for people to start working and shopping. As former militia gain employment they are no longer available to be militia later on. As more people work and shop, more people are getting settled down and have an interest in the peace remaining. As this interest in the peace remaining grows they will grow spiteful of those who try to break it.
    “The nation that will insist upon drawing a broad line of demarcation between the fighting man and the thinking man is liable to find its fighting done by fools and its thinking by cowards.”

    —Sir William Francis Butler

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