Historic breakthrough in China / Taiwan situation

[RollingWave]

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/as...ina/index.html

Well, ever since KMT candidate Ma-Yin Jio was elected early this year, he has vowed to try and make serious progress in the cross-strait situation that has stalled ever since the late Lee period almost 10 years ago.

Well some progress is being made, though probably not as well as he's hoped, there are now standard cross strait flights that no longer require them to land in Hongkong or a 3rd country , but it still often take werid long routes and flights are limited. tourism opened but the paperwork and restriction is crazy. trade talks are starting but recent melamine scandal seriously messed things up.

So with all this, the first high ranking PRC offical visits for offical talks, which is a real first. as previous talks were usually held in Hong Kong , while PRC officals that visit are either retired or minor.

Obviously this a a major step that 's going to stirr up a lot of noise on all sides.

[bushbush]

i am just so happy for the situation there. It's mutually beneficial for Taiwan and mainland china to preserve peace and promote trade and business relations. Already over 1 million people from taiwan are studying, working and investing in China. Next time i hope more mainland Chinese can visit Taiwan.

[AqD]

i am just so happy for the situation there. It's mutually beneficial for Taiwan and mainland china to preserve peace and promote trade and business relations. Already over 1 million people from taiwan are studying, working and investing in China. Next time i hope more mainland Chinese can visit Taiwan.

I agree. But a merge wouldn't be good for people in Taiwan anyway, unless we keep independent armies

[ray243]

I agree. But a merge wouldn't be good for people in Taiwan anyway, unless we keep independent armies

An EU-like union perhaps? That may help, yes?

[Admiral Piett]

I always wondered why China was so keen on annexing Tawain anyway.

[bushbush]

I always wondered why China was so keen on annexing Tawain anyway.

it's really an unresolved issue from the 1945 Chinese civil war. A historical legacy question you can say. When there are unresolved problems, there are gonna e people who wanna resolve it.

[SorelusImperion]

while missiles aren't exactly the most cost effective weapon, in this case it's a near checkmate for Taiwan, as their only hope of sustaining against China is to win the air war and not get completely crushed at sea, while taiwan has some advantages against China in both airforce and navy, the advantage is non-existant if China can just wipe out the rather limited air and naval bases right off the bat with missiles

Don't forget the US guarantuee to Taiwan.

[Garbarsardar]

I always wondered why China was so keen on annexing Tawain anyway.

Both PRC (People's Republic of China) and RoC (Republic of China-currently situated in Taiwan) consider themselves "China". So there is no issue of annexation since PRC ignores the fact the Taiwan is de facto independent and RoC ignores the fact that...erm...it's not the Government of China.

China will be re-unified at some point. Under which circumstances, well, that depends on the Chinese economy and the willingness of the US.

[craziii]

Both PRC (People's Republic of China) and RoC (Republic of China-currently situated in Taiwan) consider themselves "China". So there is no issue of annexation since PRC ignores the fact the Taiwan is de facto independent and RoC ignores the fact that...erm...it's not the Government of China.

China will be re-unified at some point. Under which circumstances, well, that depends on the Chinese economy and the willingness of the US.

hehe, willingness of the usa. no wonder most of the world dislikes us.

but seriously, who would actually bring up annexation when taiwan is a part of china?

lets make a what if scenario: a foreign country is more powerful than the usa. hawaii + alaska succeeded from the union, and is supported by this foreign country with it's promise of direct military intervention + aid. how would you feel as an american toward that foreign country?

sorry for making this off topic post.

[Mikelus Trento]

I always wondered why China was so keen on annexing Tawain anyway.

Money

[Mithie]

Money

China would actually lose money by annexing Taiwan.

... Which is why she's not really keen on breaking the status quo, and really hasn't been for the past decade or so.

[Mikelus Trento]

China would actually lose money by annexing Taiwan.

... Which is why she's not really keen on breaking the status quo, and really hasn't been for the past decade or so.

Care to explain how incorporating a dynamic, industrialized region with millions of people and an excellant infrastructure would cost them money?

[bushbush]

Care to explain how incorporating a dynamic, industrialized region with millions of people and an excellant infrastructure would cost them money?

there are over 1 million people from taiwan living working studying and investing in china. They bring along at least 100 billion foreign investment, not to mention the amount of trade.

more importantly, a forceful annexation of taiwan essentially means an end of foreign trade and investment from the world for china. It could also mean a war with the US. That's gonna cost china big time....

[Tominokar]

I always wondered why China was so keen on annexing Tawain anyway.

Because they're an empire, and empires usually only stop growing or granting autonomy when they're in decline. China obviously doesn't want to appear to be in decline.

[Mithie]

Because they're an empire, and empires usually only stop growing or grant autonomy when they're in decline. There doesn't seem to be many good reason for keeping hold of Xinjiang either, except this loss of prestige.

What are you talking about? XinJiang is rich. Filthy rich. Have you seen how the religious elite live? They live like Shahs. SHAHS!

Care to explain how incorporating a dynamic, industrialized region with millions of people and an excellant infrastructure would cost them money?

I've done it in many other threads - every time this topic comes up.

Taiwan's entire economic complex is based on politically neutral banking and tech trade. If China ever annexed it, all of that would collapse because Taiwan would:

1. No longer receive the investment incentives currently offered by the US as a "deterrent" to China.
2. Be shackled by the WTO and have its export/imports rates regulated as a part of China.

What Taiwan is currently doing is sponging in investment from the United States and parts of Europe (thanks to the 1982 pledge from the US to support Taiwan's autonomy economically and militarily) and siphoning it into zero-tariff investments into the Chinese economic machine.

Taiwan's entire economy is built upon its political status.

[Mikelus Trento]

What are you talking about? XinJiang is rich. Filthy rich. Have you seen how the religious elite live? They live like Shahs. SHAHS!



I've done it in many other threads - every time this topic comes up.

Taiwan's entire economic complex is based on politically neutral banking and tech trade. If China ever annexed it, all of that would collapse because Taiwan would:

1. No longer receive the investment incentives currently offered by the US as a "deterrent" to China.
2. Be shackled by the WTO and have its export/imports rates regulated as a part of China.

What Taiwan is currently doing is sponging in investment from the United States and parts of Europe (thanks to the 1982 pledge from the US to support Taiwan's autonomy economically and militarily) and siphoning it into zero-tariff investments into the Chinese economic machine.

Taiwan's entire economy is built upon its political status.

Thank you.

[Mithie]

Thank you.

You're welcome. And because you're so nice, I'll elaborate a little bit with some further analysis.

In fact - the only real thing China would get out of annexing Taiwan is a third port in the South China Sea. But with Hong Kong to the west and Canton to the east (both are autonomous and see minimal regulation from the Chinese government, and therefore very popular among international maritime merchants), there is very little neccessity in having a third major port in the region.

The semi-conductor industry in Taiwan can also be considered something of a local monopoly, and serves as a serious buffer to Japan's technological edge on the global market. Currently, China is using the Taiwanese semi-conductor industry as a separate but complementary component to her own electronics industry. Whereas Chinese corporations have to pay Japan for leasing services and partnerships from Japanese corporations like Sony and Panasonic a hefty tariff and investment overhead, she can pretty much treat Taiwanese tech leaders like Benq as another Chinese company as far as similar overheads are concerned. This makes Taiwan happy because you can't get a bigger investor than China, and this makes China happy because Taiwan has the neccessary friendliness with the west to inject their productrs straight to American and European consumers (once again, with minimum extra overhead due to the political status).

It's no big mystery that lately, middle-class utilitarian American and European all-purpose electronic vendors like Radio Shack and Walmart prefer Taiwanese goods over Japanese goods due to the cost factor, and Taiwanese companies also tend to have better global coverage due to the 1.4 billion people Chinese market serving as its backbone. The Japanese still dominate the upper end technological spectrum in the west, but everybody knows it's the middle-lower spectrum that rakes in the cash. In fact, with the latest economic tantrums America is throwing, I wouldn't be surprised if the electronics industry shifts its favor toward Taiwanese products even more. So if you're a stock playing man, I'd look into putting some cash into Taiwanese tech stocks.

[Tominokar]

What are you talking about? XinJiang is rich. Filthy rich. Have you seen how the religious elite live? They live like Shahs. SHAHS!

Yeh I edited my post afterwards as I guess it's not entirely true, not because of the reason you give, but it seems that a massive colonisation effort has happened over the last 50 years. The Han chinese now almost equal the Uyghurs, a few more years and they'll outnumber them, making claims for independence seem a bit feeble...

[RollingWave]

What are you talking about? XinJiang is rich. Filthy rich. Have you seen how the religious elite live? They live like Shahs. SHAHS!



I've done it in many other threads - every time this topic comes up.

Taiwan's entire economic complex is based on politically neutral banking and tech trade. If China ever annexed it, all of that would collapse because Taiwan would:

1. No longer receive the investment incentives currently offered by the US as a "deterrent" to China.
2. Be shackled by the WTO and have its export/imports rates regulated as a part of China.

What Taiwan is currently doing is sponging in investment from the United States and parts of Europe (thanks to the 1982 pledge from the US to support Taiwan's autonomy economically and militarily) and siphoning it into zero-tariff investments into the Chinese economic machine.

Taiwan's entire economy is built upon its political status.

Woo man,

a. Neutral banking? what the hell is that? Taiwan's banks and stocks are both rather unattractive internationally , mainly due to the fact that you know, there's a chance that it gets bombed someday. and more importantly, because it's access to it's next door neighbor remains heavily red taped. the fact is, the financial sector is hardly a true international competitor in Taiwan, at least a strong one.

b. Taiwan hasn't recieved US aid in over 40 years now, if anything, it's paying unfair fees to the US every onces in a few year to buy overpriced and outdated weapon (like the Knox class frigate I served on ) . due to it's international problems it has very little choice but to pay up no matter who's in charge. as other weapon makers won't sell to Taiwan, and in the rare cases that they do, it ends up rather ugly when the scandals behind it unfolds. your right that US Aid played a huge role for it's rise in the first place. (as it was in insane debt in the late 40s to early 50s, thanks to WW2 + Chinese civil war) but it's CURRENT status internationally isn't a result of US Aid

c. Taiwan IS more shackled than China by the WTO, because like most other international organzation, Taiwan is either barred (like the WHO and UN) or only allowed in under silly terms and names. it has 0 say on what the WTO rules for or against her. a setup like this often forces Taiwan to follow all international standards while not getting all the benifits.

The true risk China has in Taking Taiwan is more of a political one, even if we assume they were able to take the island quickly and decisively, the noise that will rise will be incrediablly significant, There are certainly a very significant group of people in Washington that's wary of the PRC rise in power. but the PRC's been fairly peaceful for several decades now, so their bases have been weakening, and the US policies have indeed started to shift on to ever more friendly terms with them, but if they do take Taiwan with force, all that goes out the window. and the likely case would be cold war 2.

Having Taiwan's port and exporting sector doesn't do jack if you know, you lose the places to export to. The western world is almost surely going to put a major trade embargo on China for a significant period of time in such a event.

the PRC's internal circle have quietly been tipping that they realize that they're still significant problems in China, and the only reason they been able to keep it all under control is due to high growth rate. if that growth rate cease for a signifcant period of time (as is likely the case in a hostile takeover.) a lot of their domestic issue will start to burst. that's probably the best reason for them to not make a move here. because the risk of the insueing poltical problems would seriously endanger those currently in power.

[Mithie]

Woo man,

a. Neutral banking? what the hell is that? Taiwan's banks and stocks are both rather unattractive internationally , mainly due to the fact that you know, there's a chance that it gets bombed someday. and more importantly, because it's access to it's next door neighbor remains heavily red taped. the fact is, the financial sector is hardly a true international competitor in Taiwan, at least a strong one.

What are you talking about? The banking business makes up a significant portion of Taiwan's GDP.

b. Taiwan hasn't recieved US aid in over 40 years now, if anything, it's paying unfair fees to the US every onces in a few year to buy overpriced and outdated weapon (like the Knox class frigate I served on ) . due to it's international problems it has very little choice but to pay up no matter who's in charge. as other weapon makers won't sell to Taiwan, and in the rare cases that they do, it ends up rather ugly when the scandals behind it unfolds. your right that US Aid played a huge role for it's rise in the first place. (as it was in insane debt in the late 40s to early 50s, thanks to WW2 + Chinese civil war) but it's CURRENT status internationally isn't a result of US Aid

Political aid. Corporate aid. Military aid. The Taiwanese contracts with US corporations alone is generating a fair bit of revenue for both sides. Don't believe me? A 700 Billion GDP doesn't lie. The fact of the matter is, Taiwan is more politically accessible to the west than China, and that's where its main advantage lies - providing it's unannexed.

1982.

1982.

What can I say? 1982.

Back to you.

c. Taiwan IS more shackled than China by the WTO, because like most other international organzation, Taiwan is either barred (like the WHO and UN) or only allowed in under silly terms and names. it has 0 say on what the WTO rules for or against her. a setup like this often forces Taiwan to follow all international standards while not getting all the benifits.

Negative. Taiwan is an observational member of the WTO, which means it has the choice not to be limited by export/import limitations. China's goal in joining the WTO is mostly to "join the political club", so to speak, to smooth out relations with the western economic giants; Taiwan is already well IN the club.

Having Taiwan's port and exporting sector doesn't do jack if you know, you lose the places to export to. The western world is almost surely going to put a major trade embargo on China for a significant period of time in such a event.

Trade embargo on China? Taiwan losing places to export? What? Are we talking about the zombie apocalypse or nuclear doomsday?

the PRC's internal circle have quietly been tipping that they realize that they're still significant problems in China, and the only reason they been able to keep it all under control is due to high growth rate. if that growth rate cease for a signifcant period of time (as is likely the case in a hostile takeover.) a lot of their domestic issue will start to burst. that's probably the best reason for them to not make a move here. because the risk of the insueing poltical problems would seriously endanger those currently in power.

Keeping Taiwan at status quo IS part of China's growth plan.