Polls: Don't mean a thing?

[SaDeR]

How do we know what the polls mean? Do we know who these news channels are polling? Who thinks the polls are reliable or unreliable?

[Dash]

I usually believe them to unreliable unless a BUNCH of them are pointing towards something, while a couple are pointing the other way...

For example, how a bunch of polls show Obama leading but Fox News shows McCain winning. (or at least they did. Don't know if they still do)

[bushbush]

scientific polls are generally reliable, but they do have limitations from time to time.

edit: if you don't understand how it works, you can take a course on that topic in university.

For example, how a bunch of polls show Obama leading but Fox News shows McCain winning. (or at least they did. Don't know if they still do)

actually i think even Foxnews poll shows Obama leading.

[SaDeR]

Yes he is right Fox News shows Obama leading, every poll does, but that doesn't mean they are reliable because you still have no idea who they are polling.

[bushbush]

Yes he is right Fox News shows Obama leading, every poll does, but that doesn't mean they are reliable because you still have no idea who they are polling.

they would generally pick out people from all kinds of demographic background on a national scale to ask their questions. And it's generally accurate, but it can be manipulated in many ways, such as the way they ask questions and such.

[SaDeR]

I would agree and you know were have like 3 different conversations on different threads lol.

[James Cook]

they would generally pick out people from all kinds of demographic background on a national scale to ask their questions. And it's generally accurate, but it can be manipulated in many ways, such as the way they ask questions and such.

The only thing you can use a poll for is to get an idea of that issue
that the poll is about....

[Big War Bird]

On the whole I think they are reliable so long as you keep in mind they are not meant to be taken as exact.

[SaDeR]

Not necessarily, I saw a poll one time that said McCain 35 and Obama 52 then another news channel said something like McCain 42 and Obama 50. They are really not to good, it will basically give you an idea who is doing better, but you will never now how much better he is doing.

[bushbush]

Not necessarily, I saw a poll one time that said McCain 35 and Obama 52 then another news channel said something like McCain 42 and Obama 50. They are really not to good, it will basically give you an idea who is doing better, but you will never now how much better he is doing.

usually they would tell the margin of error, like + or - 3% of something. But you are right, the difference between those two polls is a bit too much, you can explain that by thinking these two polls asked questions in different ways or manipulated their samples here and there.

[SaDeR]

Yes, well that is the whole thing saw I am really unsure who is going to win this election nobody really knows, and nobody will know till election day of course.

[jankren]

McCain is gonna lose. Just get over it.

[SaDeR]

Hopefully not.

[danzig]

Polls provide a snapshot on how things are going but they arent perfect. Funny thing is though given the polling if Obama somehow loses people will be pointing at polls going THEY CHEATED...even though ignoring many of the polls have it within margin of error. At this point I hope Obama wins just to stop the endless, countless whining from the cult of Obama crying that somehow their messiah managed to lose...along with the comments that Obama lost cause whites are racist that would follow. Frankly I cant take 4 more years of whiny ass people. I wholeheartly wish your god wins the seat so when he doesnt walk on water, doesnt turn water into wine and you find he is just a man who like many who came before him cant live up to his promises people will come back to reality.

[Mikelus Trento]

Polls provide a snapshot on how things are going but they arent perfect. Funny thing is though given the polling if Obama somehow loses people will be pointing at polls going THEY CHEATED...even though ignoring many of the polls have it within margin of error. At this point I hope Obama wins just to stop the endless, countless whining from the cult of Obama crying that somehow their messiah managed to lose...along with the comments that Obama lost cause whites are racist that would follow. Frankly I cant take 4 more years of whiny ass people. I wholeheartly wish your god wins the seat so when he doesnt walk on water, doesnt turn water into wine and you find he is just a man who like many who came before him cant live up to his promises people will come back to reality.

And when he does lead the way to a better economy and respect again for our nation's position in the world....in other words, when he DOES fulfill his promises....what then? Will you be honorable enough to acknowledge success as quickly as you predict failure?

[Strattios]

They are relatively reliable. Come election time Republicans always gain ~5% and Democrats loose ~5%. That isn't opinion, it's just fact.

[Kanaric]

Polls are reliable, people just have to realize that the they are scientifically accurate to a certain percentage. People take them at their absolute number and do not think that the 3% to 6% accuracy means anything when it is VERY important.

If you are in the degree of inaccuracy of the poll anything could happen. However polls with wide gaps and differences always end up reflecting reality if its a scientific poll.

[Mongooose]

Polls are especially unreliable in the US as only part of the population ACTUALLY votes. Predicting demographics can be difficult and if a key part of either candidate's voting bloc turn out terribly on election day, (like Obama's youth vote for example) then all the polls preceding are worthless.

Oh and I love the irony of including a poll in this thread; whether it was deliberate or not. XD

[Erik]

Polls are especially unreliable in the US as only part of the population ACTUALLY votes.

This doesn't make them unreliable, it just means such a poll answers a different question: who is the most popular candidate vs. how many votes each candidates would receive in an actual election.

This is why you should ALWAYS read what the poll is trying to show, and not just assume that it's a prediction of election results. (very few polls are)

I would say polls are generally quite reliable at showing what they intend to show, but there are still some factors that cloud the results.
For example: when people are asked to take part in a Fox News poll their answer is often different from when they are asked to take part in a CNN poll, even when the questions are exactly the same.
I don't know why exactly this is, but I think relatively less left-wing people agree to take part in a poll when they know it's by Fox News.
Polls need to be compensated for such influences, the problem is that there isn't a proven scientific way to do this (yet).

[Kanaric]

Polls are especially unreliable in the US as only part of the population ACTUALLY votes.

Don't they call the phone numbers for people who have voted? I know they AT LEAST have access to the phone numbers of registered voters and polls typically cite that.