The Electoral College Map

[fatsheep]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma...s_mccain/?map=5

According to the polls, if the election was held today, the democratic ticket would get 364 electoral votes compared to the Republican ticket's 174. 270 EVs are required to win the election.

If you scroll down on the above page it shows the polls in the battleground states. The Obama-Biden ticket is leading by 3.4% in Ohio, 5% in Florida, and 10.5% in Michigan. Also, they are doing surprisingly well in states like Indiana and North Carolina which Bush won easily in 04 and 00. Here's CNN's map if you prefer it:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

It list 264 electoral votes as safe for Obama, he'll just need to pick up 6 more to become President. This is looking more and more like an Obama blowout waiting to happen. I wonder if the third debate will have more of an impact than the previous two (which didn't seem to have much impact at all)?

[Bovril]

Interesting. This sort of analysis is far more important than merely taking the opinions of a cross section of the public and adding up percentage support.
I wonder, have candidates in the past been this far behind (assuming the data is accurate) this close to the election and come back?

[Rugin84]

Poles are samplings, and with the continued bias of our media (Fox: GOP mouthpiece. CNN, NBC, & CBS: Liberal biased) where and how they sample effect the results. Also the results of poles are based on RETURNED corespondence. So only the people who decided to participate are in the pole out of all those contacted. Many people dont give a crap about poles and all the hubbub. They walk to the poling sites on election day, and cast their vote, based on what they feel is right, and dont even bother with what everyone else is doing.

Just remember, 80% of all statistics can be made to say anything 60% of the time.

[Bovril]

Well there are better and worse ways of collecting data. Obviously if your aim is to get certain responses its pretty easy. For example you can precede the question 'will you vote Republican?' with the question 'do you think national security is a vital issue?'. Also, you can eliminate the problem of only getting data from returned correspondance by going door to door, which is what the good polling organisations do. No method is perfect, but some have been shown to be pretty good when there is at predicting a range, say three or four per cent either way.

[The King Of Peasants]

Well the polls don't seem to be worth anything of late granted the average helps but today's poll varied from a 14 point lead to a 2 point one Obama is definitely winning but I don't think it will be a total blowout.

[Bovril]

Well the polls don't seem to be worth anything of late granted the average helps but today's poll varied from a 14 point lead to a 2 point one Obama is definitely winning but I don't think it will be a total blowout.

Its worth remembering that some votes are more important than others. Republican voting in strongly Democratic areas aren't going to make a difference and vice versa, even if the proportions vary between say 10 dems to eac republican and 2 dems to each Republican. So what you want to get is very few of your voters in places your opponent has wrapped up, and then the rest spread out to give you a pretty good chance everywhere else. If you look at UK politics the way the constituancies are drawn up means the proportion of seats Labour takes is greater than the proportion of votes they get, because a while back they drew up the lines using these principles.

[Mikelus Trento]

Well the polls don't seem to be worth anything of late granted the average helps but today's poll varied from a 14 point lead to a 2 point one Obama is definitely winning but I don't think it will be a total blowout.

Maybe you think that because the polls indicate your choice is far behind?

I don't recall a similar sentiment being expressed by you when the polls showed McCain briefly rallied after his convention and Palin pick....until the women of America decided they weren't going to be used in such a demeaning way.

[WrathofTulkas]

I will seriously lol if McCain is ever elected

[Viking Prince]

I will seriously lol if McCain is ever elected

If you fel so safe -- vote your instincts and vote green or communist or libertarian. Why waste a vote on Sen. Obama when you can really be counted as a protest vote and not part of the landslide?

[Nietzsche]

If you fel so safe -- vote your instincts and vote green or communist or libertarian. Why waste a vote on Sen. Obama when you can really be counted as a protest vote and not part of the landslide?

Think I'll just vote with a gun. Suppose I can get one vote per cartridge?

Yee Haw

[Scar Face]

When taking the Bradley effect into account, likely voters and so forth, I bet Obama's lead is much smaller than it appears, if there is a lead at all.

[touchmaster]

I'm gonna be really interested in what states Obama pulls out from the Republicans! It's gonna be a crazy election.

I will seriously lol if McCain is ever elected

A lot of people will be

[WrathofTulkas]

I want to see people cry! Oh god my corrupt politcian didnt get elected

If MCCain gets elected there will be cries of RACISM for months

I think it will be boring if Obama wins xD
I want some crazyness maybe 269-269 electoral

[Rugin84]

I want some crazyness maybe 269-269 electoral

Correct me if Im wrong, but the way the college is blocked into groups by states, I dont believe that is possible.

[touchmaster]

I want to see people cry! Oh god my corrupt politcian didnt get elected

If MCCain gets elected there will be cries of RACISM for months

I think it will be boring if Obama wins xD
I want some crazyness maybe 269-269 electoral

Yeah it won't be a big surprise, everyone knows he'll win.

/coming from a Republican!

[Viking Prince]

Yeah it won't be a big surprise, everyone knows he'll win.

/coming from a Republican!

Well we can still go thru the formality of actually voting and counting up the ballots. Just for curiosity's sake, of course.

[Last Roman]

Well we can still go thru the formality of actually voting and counting up the ballots. Just for curiosity's sake, of course.

why, thats just crazy talk!

[Admiral Piett]

Looking at that map makes me ashamed to be a Texan. People around me can be so blind. Half of them don't even know McCain's policies.

[MathiasOfAthens]

Well thats simple enough man, in Democratic and Republican styles of government the population is largely uninformed instead they vote based on their gut instinct which they usually learn through the media, family, or friends. For all intents and purposes an average voter will know a little about their candidate and that will be enough to forge a bond with that candidate on Election day, becoming blind to criticism of that candidate where ever it may come from. I should know I voted for Bush... how blind was I... I didnt vote for myself I voted because my family was voting for Bush. I thought it was the patriotic thing to do.
________
FIX PS3

[Admiral Piett]

Well thats simple enough man, in Democratic and Republican styles of government the population is largely uninformed instead they vote based on their gut instinct which they usually learn through the media, family, or friends. For all intents and purposes an average voter will know a little about their candidate and that will be enough to forge a bond with that candidate on Election day, becoming blind to criticism of that candidate where ever it may come from. I should know I voted for Bush... how blind was I... I didnt vote for myself I voted because my family was voting for Bush. I thought it was the patriotic thing to do.

I was the same way, though I certainly wasn't old enough to vote. I was a Bush supporter along with my family throughout 2000 - 2004. However, it was late in 2004 and in 2005 when I began to seriously question my views and perception of things.