Advantages to living in a Swing State

[chamaeleo]

I've been itching to confirm a suspicion of mine, and since it's a slow morning...

Gas prices over the past 2 months at my local station here in Albuquerque, NM have dropped from close to $4 to...you'll love this...$2.85 as of this morning.

My hypothesis: if we assume that 1. those who control gas prices would benefit from a GOP president (big stretch, but bear with me...), and that 2. a swing voter who is paying a lot for gas is more likely to vote Dem than a voter who is feeling less pressure at the pump, then it would be advantageous for them to decrease average gas prices in swing states.

I couldn't find any direct correlatory studies, and this is actually tough question to test...lots of data, lots of variables. Nevertheless, I just spent the last hour plugging current (10/10/2008) state average gas prices (taken from AAA website) into excel and categorized states by: Safe Dem, Swing Dem, Safe GOP, and Swing GOP based on the following map from www.howstuffworks.com:





Results:
Safe DemSwing DemSafe RepSwing RepAlaska$4.10Alabama$3.47Arkansas$3.21Arizona$3.29California$3.52Colorado$3.37Connecticut$3.38D Columbia$3.52Delaware$3.17Florida$3.44Georgia$3.58Hawaii$4.07Iowa$3.06Idaho$3.50Illinois$3.50Indiana$3.28Kansas$2.97Kentucky$3.33Louisiana$3.42Massachusetts$3.42Maryland$3.32Maine$3.29Michigan$3.26Minnesota$3.07Missouri$2.99Mississippi$3.28Montana$3.33N Carolina$3.67N Dakota$3.24Nebraska$3.14N Hampshire$3.28N Jersey$3.10N Mexico$3.33Nevada$3.43N York$3.50Ohio$3.13Oklahma$2.91Oregon$3.42Pennsylvania$3.30Rhode Island$3.23S Carolina$3.47S Dakota$3.22tennessee$3.43Texas$3.22Utah$3.52Virginia$3.30vermont$3.41Washington$3.49Wisconsin$3.33W Virginia$3.38Wyoming$3.37Average$3.43$3.31$3.37$3.28


Discussion:
Hardly a rigorous study, I'm the first to admit this, but the results show that the average gas prices are lower in swing states. Average prices are also higher in blue states than in red states. This ignores many important variables, such as: geographic influence on transport costs, availability of ethanol additives, urban vs rural biases in "average" prices, state taxes, state environmental requirements, 86 vs 87 octane, etc. These are HUGELY influential. I would not publish my "study" anywhere except here, where it's already a given that <1/2 of you won't take it seriously because you may already be somewhat familiar w my views!

Do I think this proves anything? No, but it doesn't say that a trend doesn't exist...rather the opposite.

Average gas price in NM is $3.33. My local, suburban station is $2.85. If I wanted to regulate prices to influence swing voters on a regional basis, I would probably ignore the rural areas (staunchly GOP already, and concentrate on urban and suburban areas (where the swingers live).

Conclusion:
Hardly conclusive, but maybe something to think about? What are your thoughts, have you seen any rigorous studies on this phenomenon? By all means, shred away!!!

[chamaeleo]

Crap, how do I copy/paste an excel table?

prices from: http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/sbsavg.asp

Average gas price summary:

Safe Dem = $3.43
Swing Dem = $3.31
Safe GOP = $3.37
Swing GOP = $3.28

[zznɟ ǝɥʇ]

Lower gas prices atm might have more to do with the economy than the presence of undecided voters

[chamaeleo]

Lower gas prices atm might have more to do with the economy than the presence of undecided voters

How? What economic factors would cause solid red and blue states to pay more for their gas, than those battleground states?

Example: Blue states may pay more, on average, due to stricter environmental standards or higher taxes.

I'm not disagreeing, since there's so many factors at play here...

Example: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, and IA although Red or pink, all pay much less than national average ($3.35)...I assume this is due to availability of ethanol (being corn producers) and lower taxes.

WHo can really say, it's a pretty rough model!

[the_mango55]

My state of North Carolina is usually not a swing state, but may very well be in this election.

Normally it's solid red, but right now Obama leads 48% - 42%.

[chamaeleo]

My state of North Carolina is usually not a swing state, but may very well be in this election.

Normally it's solid red, but right now Obama leads 48% - 42%.

Yeah, the map's based on 2004 results...not today's poll results.

Somebody should try pasting the prices into up-to-date polling map, this'd be interesting. Not me...I'm ditching work for a weekend in the mountains. It'll be nice to fill the tank, and still have $ for lunch!

[horatius]

I would think that higher gas prices would cause people to vote for the GOP rather than the opposite. You know the whole: "Drill Baby Drill" chant. Democrats are more likely to increase gas taxes and environmental regulations that would cause the price of gas to go up. So, people pressured at the pump are more likely to vote Republican.

I could be wrong though. I'm just making a guess.

[C-Rob]

In ohio here the gas price is 3.15 and as low as 3 in some places.

I think the real reason is the fact that our economy's, the WORLD's for that matter, is going through some pretty hard crap. I can just think of some Saudis thinking, "Hmm, maybe we should lower our prices, getting less profit, and have future customers, instead of keeping our price high and helping to bankrupt everything" And the barrel went down to 100 like, 3 weeks ago at least. It's just about time, imo, that that price is passed on to the consumer.

[Sphere]

You need to due some statisticl analysis to see if you findings are significant.

Find the overall mean (average), find the variance (sum up the individual prices minus the average price squared, and divide by 49). The square root of the varience is the standard deviation. Find the average of of the swing states. If the average sing states fall outside of two standard deviations from the overall average, it probably is significant.

[ajm317]

In order to test the premise this is election related you should compare gas prices today to gas prices at some time prior to the election, say 2007, or come back and look at gas prices after the election. Gas prices are falling nation wide, and this is likely the result of the other factors you mentioned like geography or ethanol.

[MadBurgerMaker]

Gas in San Antonio is in the $2.70s in some areas. We are being rewarded for our loyalty.

[Viking Prince]

In order to test the premise this is election related you should compare gas prices today to gas prices at some time prior to the election, say 2007, or come back and look at gas prices after the election. Gas prices are falling nation wide, and this is likely the result of the other factors you mentioned like geography or ethanol.

Correct -- you get the prize for understanding correlation.