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September 26, 2008, 11:14 AM
#1
Libertus
Ukraine, Romania and the Snake Island
I`m preety curious what will be the final decision on it in Hague, but deffinetly the arguments of Romania seem to be stronger. Even so, if presumably Ucraine wins the process, Romania may "punish them" by vetoing any future inclusion of Ucraine in NATO, while if Romania wins, Ucraine may slide forever into the Russian sfera of influence (which eventually may happen, eitherway).
About the Snake island (or rock, or whatever it may be), it has and obvious strategic importance. Lots of oil and natural gas deposits are beneath the Black Sea in that part, which could offer in theory at least for Romania, more than 20 years of energetic independence. For Ucraine as well, i guess. On the other hand, the island is very important from a military point of view, one can put there medium ranged missiles and be able to target most ports and strategic objectives from the Black Sea area (i`ve heard this last one from a friend who formerly worked in the Romanian Army).
So, considering the above, what will probably happen in this area of the Black Sea ? What might be the future of Ucraine, this large and rather contradictory Soviet relique ?
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