Wow, New York State could be (or is) "in play"; New Poll numbers released
A 13 point loss in a key Democratic Stronghold a little less than two weeks after the Convention is something i've never heard of before.
New polls that were released yesterday are reflecting some, quite frankly, shocking shifts in voter confidence in New York.
My best guess is that its alot of disappointed and dejected Clinton people, among other things.
FYI for those that don't know, New York hasn't gone Republican since 1984.
Loudonville, NY. Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.
“Although New York has long been regarded as a ‘safe’ state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”
Voters Rate the Candidates on the Issues – Obama Wins Four Out of Six
“By better than two-to-one, voters think Obama will be more effective on education and health care. A plurality also gives him the edge on the economy and the war in Iraq,” Greenberg said. “McCain gets the nod on terrorism and enhancing America’s strength in the world. Democrats give Obama the advantage on every issue, while Republicans say McCain is best on every issue. Interestingly, there is virtually no difference between men and women on any of these issues and only on strengthening America abroad is there a significant difference between younger and older voters.”
Voters Give McCain the Edge On Four of Six Personal Attributes
“Voters overwhelmingly say that McCain is more patriotic and has more experience than Obama. By smaller margins, they give McCain the edge on integrity and leadership,” Greenberg said. “A majority of voters say Obama has the advantage on intelligence and compassion. Even Democrats give McCain a wide lead on experience. The only significant difference between men and women on attributes was on leadership. While both say McCain is the better leader, women agree by a smaller margin. Younger voters disagree with older voters on leadership and integrity, with a plurality saying Obama is better on both.
“Seven weeks is a long time in politics. Will New York stay “blue?” Will McCain make it a battleground state? Siena will continue to track voters in a state where politics is not boring,” Greenberg said.
New York likely voters are evenly divided on whether they want to see Republicans continue to control the State Senate or have the Democrats take control for the first time in more than 30 years, 44-44 percent.
Governor David Paterson continues to enjoy strong support from voters, with a 59-13 percent favorable rating and a 51-37 percent positive job performance rating. In 2010 gubernatorial match-ups, he loses to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by five points (45-40 percent) down from eight points last month, and beats former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by the same ten-point margin (50-40 percent) as last month.
The news has spread all over the Election Blogospehere, here's one in particular I picked up:
Source
What happened? The Post credits the selection of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate, but the snub of their Senator by Obama for the other position may have created a backlash among New Yorkers. The tax problems of Charlie Rangel may have contributed to the falling fortunes of Democrats, and the Post forgets that this is the first election since Eliot Spitzer’s resignation over his affairs with high-priced hookers. If the Republican brand suffered nationally, the Democratic brand isn’t doing well in New York now, and the reform rhetoric of Obama isn’t convincing voters there.
If Obama loses his grip on New York, he can’t possibly win the election. If he has to sink a large amount of money in New York, he’ll have to take it from his efforts in battleground states, and he’ll have to cut his face time in places like Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, and Minnesota. That’s a recipe for defeat, both financially and electorally.
Just a week ago, his campaign shrugged off the national polls by asserting that the state polls were what counted. As this shows, the national polls provide a pretty good barometer about what one can expect in the states. If New York becomes a toss-up, Obama can kiss his White House aspirations good-bye.
McCain has made significant gains in New York largely on national security and personal attributes. He wins on terrorism, 54-33, and edges Obama in ensuring American strength, 47-41. McCain obliterates him on personal qualities, especially patriotism (59-21), experience (73-18), and perhaps most unsettling for Obama, integrity (43-38).
An article from the New York Post that goes into some of the details of it all:
If someone has something to prove what i've posted wrong then please do so, because i'm really skeptical of this.BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state - where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.
The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties - and produced deep worries among Democrats.
POLL: McCain Picks Up 5 Points in NY
One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.
The movement by women toward McCain is being credited to Democratic attacks on Alaska Gov. Palin, last week's "lipstick on a pig" crack by Obama and to the continuing unhappiness by female Democrats over Obama's failure to pick Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.
"If it winds up being tight in New York, that means McCain wins the election nationally," said a prominent Democrat familiar with some of the polling data.
A prominent Republican familiar with the results said, "It really is something, because we just assumed Obama would carry such a heavily Democratic state like New York with no difficulty."
The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.
The polls found McCain closing the gap with Obama during the past 10 days - in the wake of Palin's sensational GOP convention speech, Obama's crack that "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig," and amid a swirling controversy over Palin's credentials to be vice president.
The polling data track the findings of a little-noticed Marist College poll of likely New Jersey voters late last week that found Obama barely ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 45 percent. New Jersey generally votes Democratic, though its enrollment is not as heavily Democratic as New York state's.
The findings of the private polls will be tested by a series of public polls to be released over the next two weeks - starting with a Siena College survey of likely voters due out today.
A Siena poll in August had Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 39 percent. McCain is expected to make a significant move over the 40 percent mark when the new numbers are released today.
The private polling also points to a closer battle for control of the state Senate. Because of the way many Senate district lines have been drawn, Republicans, fighting to hold their narrow majority, are expected to benefit most from a close New York presidential race, insiders agree.
McCain's surge in New York polling comes at a time when his national operatives have rebuffed requests from New York campaign chairman Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer and son-in-law to former President Richard Nixon, to spend some serious campaign money in the state.
"Ed was told, 'You have no money for a campaign here, so why should we spend any?' " a nationally known Republican operative told The Post.
"The McCain people think of Ed as a nice guy, but there's no money for an organization in New York, so they ask, 'Why go in?' " the GOP operative continued.
The Republican operative, meanwhile, sounded downright gleeful about the political fallout from US Rep. Charles Rangel's failure to pay income taxes from the rental of his luxurious villa in the Dominican Republic.
"Rangel has turned into a big liability for the Democrats, and his troubles are playing into the 'anti- politician' mood around the country," he said.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Mongooose
