US Presidential Election 2012

[the Black Prince]

So, i was lying in bed this morning waiting for my boyfriend to finish in the bathroom, and, as you do, thinking about the next US Election in 2012 and who the likely frontrunners would be...

A rather interesting thought occurred to me

Palin vs Clinton



Assume McCain wins the 2008. He's an old guy and not likely to seriously seek a 2nd term. As his VP, Palin is the presumptive Republican nomination. If McCain loses, he's still managed to push Palin centre field and she'd be in a very strong position to seek the nomination in 4 years time.

On the democratic side, Obama will hopefully lose. If he does win, he'll almost certainly go for a second term, but I'm certain he'll lose. If he loses, i'm certain he'll try for the nomination again, but surely democrats aren't stupid enough to make the same mistake twice. Surely he'd be better off going back to the Senate or running for governor and getting some, you know, actual experience before trying again. Biden has all the charisma of a wet fish. If Obama loses, he'll be saddled with Obama's defeat against a potential Hilary campaign that people are already talking about. With Obama out of the picture, who else could challenge Clinton? Polawski maybe? It really needs to be someone incredibly special or with a great deal of national name recognition to challenge Clinton. Obama had the special part, whatever else he is, he's a gifted speaker. Is there anyone else? I guess time will tell.

Freakily, when I logged onto the Telegraph this morning a former senior advisor to Bill Clinton (Dick Morris) had written an article saying much the same thing

[Viking Prince]

Too far ahead. Let's get through the next 52 days of the current campaign. If Sen. McCain stays healthy, he will probably run for another term. Age is not really the issue. Genreal health is the determining factor on running at any age. I would not suppose the nomination of either party is automatic. That was the basic failure of the Clinton campaign this time.

[the Black Prince]

More reports coming out of Ohio add flavour to the theory. Apparently the Obama camp banned Hilary 2012 placards from a campaign event lol...

[Pickle_mole]

Pelosi (thats who you meant right?) has no credible future for the white house, she will just keep worming and slithering like the snake she is from senate commitee to commitee taking freedoms and money from Americans.

[Sphere]

Meh...you forget that a few months ago Rudy Guiliani and Hillary Clinton were shoe-ins for the nomination. Four years ago, Obama was a no name state Senator in Illinois.

American politics are tough to predict. I would think Palin has a better shot then Hillary though. She has all the same qualities that got GWB elected twice. The Clintons stock is down, and they burned quite a few bridges in the primaries, which is sad as I will miss seeing Chelsea.

[roy34543]

I would imagine pailin would be the one who would try and get more experience.

[Oglethorpe1983]

Ive actually spent alot of time thinking about 2012... especially since May when I realized that we were stuck with pathetic candidates on both sides... (Id love for this election to be a do-over...but as were stuck with either McCain or Obama...all we CAN do is hope for 2012)

On the democrat side there are some obvious answers...Clinton is for sure.... if she doesnt run in 2012...that will be a true sign the earth is ending.

Other possible Deomcrat choices may be Al Gore...Im sure he hasnt totally given up on the White House after that its a toss up... Chuck Schumer or Joe Manchin are possibiles too...but its a long way off and they might pick another "up and comer"

As for the Republicans we might see Gov. Robert "Bobby" Jindal... Possiby Gov. Mark Sanford... Sen. Jim Demint (has foreign policy experience)

One thing Im sure of (God willing) if John McCain wins the election... (and if he survives it) he WONT run again...

All we can hope for is a McCain win..and repair the damage he does in four years with a real conservative in 2012

[Viking Prince]

Without the needed experience over the following four years, Gov. Palin will not be a factor in 2012. Also if history is a guide -- Sen. Clinton has seen her chance -- if she runs and gets the nomination history would indicate that she would lose the campaign.

We are too close to events to see the possabilites further out. There are fifty governors and many will be replaced in the next electionss. Too large of a field to assume that two people will dominate.

[Viking Prince]

Why are you ignoring all of the governors and only selecting a few on the Republican side. I would put all of them into the hoppeer as potentials.

[Каие]

Clinton will no doubt run in 2012, she's an ambitious monster, as for Palin, the Republicans have no one so i wouldn't be surprised. But all of this is moot, because this guy is the next President of the United States.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Noodlegasm]

i can see Obama winning,hes a bit of fresh air that the usa needs.and if (god help us!!)McCain wins then i can see more wars in the future.

[Sphere]

With the way the electoral college is set up, I would actually bet against Obama at this point. Palin has solidified the rural/evangelical vote which keeps all states West of the Mississipi (except California, Oregon and Washington) red. It also firms up the South where black voters may have been tipping the balance in a few states (Virginia, S. Carolina, Georgia)

New Hampshire and Florida will in my opinion go Mcain. That means Obama would have to sweep the "Rust Belt" to win. Notably Ohio, Indiana and Penn. I think this would be a political impossibility.

Obama has a good shot at winning the popular vote, as he will turn out a bunch of new voters in urban areas, but the electoral math is against him if he cannot pick up a few western/southern states. I think a Karl Rove 2000 strategy is going to win this one for McCain/Palin, and I would not be suprised to see Obama win the popular vote.

[Каие]

With the way the electoral college is set up, I would actually bet against Obama at this point.

Despite the electoral polls showing him way ahead in the confirmed, and still way a head in the leaning?

[Sphere]

This is the anaylsis I am going off of, which was written yesterday.


McCain Has the Advantage Over Obama in Post-Convention Polls

Or to look at it another way, from Bush's 2004 electoral vote total of 286, you now have to subtract Iowa (7), which is Obama +12 in the latest Des Moines Register poll, and maybe Colorado (9), Virginia (13), and New Mexico (5), which gets the Republican total down to 252. Or to 247, if you include Nevada (5). But in the northern tier there are 63 more electoral votes within reasonable reach of McCain in the northern tier and New Hampshire. And maybe he wants to start looking at New Jersey (15). I see Obama as competitive or leading in states with 338 electoral votes (granting him the 27 in Florida, which looks to me increasingly unlikely). I see McCain as competitive or leading in states with 342 electoral votes. Advantage shifting toward McCain.

[Mikelus Trento]

Those are some mighty big assumptions to make.

Let's hypothetically say McCain does win....you forgot to mention the economic mess 4 more years of Bush economics will bring us. On that basis, I would hardly say Palin would be a shoo-in. Romney would bring much more hope of an economic recovery at that point.

What will actually happen is this...the economy will continue to spin out of control until election day, and Obama will win the election. If he is able to fix the economy and relieve America of the shoot-first ask questions later mentality of the current administration (and I believe would be even more reckless under McCain), he will be a shoe-in for re-election.

[the_mango55]

No way Palin wins a primary.

Assuming McCain wins and steps down, I think it will be someone from the same old cast, Romney, Huckabee, Guiliani, and maybe one or two more.

For the democratic side, I expect Obama and Hillary to be in the running again, along with another young "up and coming" democrat, like that governor from Virginia that gave the boring keynote speech about cell phones. Maybe Al Gore will get fired up and run again.

[Каие]

No way Palin wins a primary.

Assuming McCain wins and steps down, I think it will be someone from the same old cast, Romney, Huckabee, Guiliani, and maybe one or two more.

For the democratic side, I expect Obama and Hillary to be in the running again, along with another young "up and coming" democrat, like that governor from Virginia that gave the boring keynote speech about cell phones. Maybe Al Gore will get fired up and run again.

Al Gore should run, I don't see why he didn't run in 2004 and 2008.

[Каие]

It's true McCain has got an advantage, but after the debates, the truth will finally be out after months of negative campaigning and 'commentators' we can see for ourselves.

[Iscariott]

At this point, I wont be surprised if the republicans "lie all the way to the white house" strategy pays off.

[Sphere]

At this point, I wont be surprised if the republicans "lie all the way to the white house" strategy pays off.

If it ain't broke don't fix it.