Obama shoots up in the National polls after Palin pick.*

[Kennylz]

Remember how all the news outlets were talking about how the Palin pick wiped away all memories of the DNC from peoples minds and the coverage of it from the television? Some even braggingly (FNC)? Well, then there is no other excuse for the quite large bump in the latest National polls for Barack Hussein Obama. It seems that I wasn't the only person that thought she was a horrible choice for Vice President. Looking beyond all the campaign volunteers and enthusiastic Republicans who got all the air time and who spouted off about how terrific a pick she is and how she'd bring in so many voters... Well...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008"


Gallup Tracking National Poll - Obama 50, McCain 42 - Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking National Poll - Obama 51, McCain 45 - Obama +6
USA Today Tracking National Poll - Obama 50, McCain 43 - Obama +7
Hotline/FD National Poll - Obama 48, McCain 39 - Obama +9
CBS National Poll - Obama 48, McCain 40 - Obama +8

- - -

Obama has went from a dead heat into land-slide lead in some polls, and a sizable lead in even the closest.

[Kanaric]

Remember how all the news outlets were talking about how the Palin pick wiped away all memories of the DNC from peoples minds and the coverage of it from the television?

They only acted that way because they are biased towards McCain and they are the conservative, not liberal, media.

[Kennylz]

So is it Palin or the convention then?

[Francisco Montana]

We will see what the polls say after the RNC.

[Last Roman]

I gotta say, I'm surprised. Although my initial thoughts didn't have the whole baby scandal included. But I'm waiting for the RNC to conclude before I place any real bets.

[Kennylz]

Well, it needs to be noted that the polling that came out right after the DNC ended showed no noticeable bump for Obama. The numbers look to be much more a direct reaction to Palin.

[spartan117]

Well, it needs to be noted that the polling that came out right after the DNC ended showed no noticeable bump for Obama. The numbers look to be much more a direct reaction to Palin.

Or Gustav as it draws remembrance of Katrina which is heavily seen as failure of George Bush. Or Obama's speech was just seen on tivo.

Who knows of these things... Better wait it out until much later polls are released that arent as influenced by surges of sudden support.

[Kennylz]

Or Gustav as it draws remembrance of Katrina which is heavily seen as failure of George Bush. Or Obama's speech was just seen on tivo.

Who knows of these things... Better wait it out until much later polls are released that arent as influenced by surges of sudden support.

Very fair point, but I figured since these were the first major national polls after the Palin pick, and they were so dramatic in their movements that it warranted notice. Nothing wrong with that.

[mrmouth]

Baby scandal, troopergate.

Yeah, I'm kind of wondering why they chose this woman knowing what we do now. It doesn't take away from her accomplishments. I would be happy to live in a state she governed. In this one track mind society though, it is problematic.

[Sphere]

I think it angered the moderates in the McCain camp that he would choose a staunch christian/social conservative. These are the people who would slide over to Obama if McCain panders to the religious right too much. Especially after there was so much buzz about Lieberman as a VP pick, which would have sent a signal that McCain was sticking to his moderate/maverick roots.

Now it seems like McCain is trying for the 50%+1 strategy.

[Last Roman]

I think it angered the moderates in the McCain camp that he would choose a staunch christian/social conservative. These are the people who would slide over to Obama if McCain panders to the religious right too much. Especially after there was so much buzz about Lieberman as a VP pick, which would have sent a signal that McCain was sticking to his moderate/maverick roots.

Now it seems like McCain is trying for the 50%+1 strategy.

perhaps. could've been that McCain was trying to win the evanglical vote but backfired.

[whhyy]

Interesting.

[Viking Prince]

If you are an Obama supporter whoop it up and do not question it. If you are a McCain supporter, wait and see.

Interesting and somewhat confusing as to what is pushing this. Unless it is related to who gets asked on a holiday weekend since you need to be home to be polled. I would like to know if there is a huge bump in not connected calls (busy, no answer) by the polsters.

Wait another week and see how they move.

Also - these are national polls and not state by stae polls. The few states shown tell nothing.

[finneys13]

You mean this?

Give it a week or two, and the polls will be even enough again after the RNC bounce.

[VoodooTengo]

You mean this?

Give it a week or two, and the polls will be even enough again after the RNC bounce.

That wasn't the polls, Robert McCormick just wanted Truman to lose so badly he just decided to print it was so, thats how we do things in Chicago.

[Mikelus Trento]

Are the Republicans so devoid of leadership that they have to pick a 72 year old candidate withy a history of anger management issues, and then he picks as his successor a totally inexperienced half-twit from the sticks?

So much for John "I want the Hillary voters" McCain's great judgement and leadership in choosing political expediency over what's in the national interest.

This example proves that McCain does not put his country above all else.

[Chaigidel]

rnc will be bouncing into a garbage disposal

[alhoon]

Mikelus: No politician does.

About the polls: Wow... that can't be tied to just the VP canditate. I agree that Gustav has much more to do with it. Also I expect that after the Republicans meet the polls will again fall to a more reasonable (and believable) level.
I hope Obama wins the November elections but I don't think the differences will be anywhere as sharp as 8-9%. More like 4-5%.

[JP226]

These pollings i'd be careful of. You have to include likely voters anyhow to get a more accurate sample anyhow and none of these polls do. The zogby interactive one does and showed McCain up, but RCP doesn't like it because it was conducted online versus by phone. (online polling is the future in my opinion)

Since this is the first blackman running in the actual election along with the second female VP ever, the electorate may behave differently. The profile of the likely voter might change. Is this election enough to get young voters to stay in the night before from partying or actually pay attention to the damn date to stand in line to pull the lever? If so they are now considered a likely voter where as every election past, age was a determining factor of likelihood of voting.

Finally, with these polls you also have to take into consideration the bradley effect where people say they will vote for Obama, "because everyone's doin it" but really don't. Granted this is theoretical as to whether or not it exists with Obama and how much of an effect it'll have, say Obama has a 5 point lead with a margin of error of I dunno 2 points, but 3 points of that lead or 3% of the electorate are really not going to vote for Obama even though they say they will. All of a sudden Obama is only up by 2 and within the margin of error where he has just as much a likelihood of winning by two as he does losing by two. And Obama's own campaign has stated that they want to be up about 10 just to discount that effect.

All in all, the polls are crap, don't really trust them right now. The only thing they can tell you is general trends.

[Mikelus Trento]

blackman? hmmmm Don't forget, he is also "whiteman" too.