At the beginning of the Olympic Games in Beijing, the Georgian government is trying to solve the problem of its territorial integrity by conducting a military operation on the territory of South Ossetia, where the rules of the separatist regime. The Georgian authorities announced the beginning of the operation to restore constitutional order in the region. Georgians involved military aircrafts for strikes on the South Ossetia positions. By mid-day, on August 8, Georgian troops entered the Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia and announced the restoration of territorial integrity of Georgia. It was also announced that an act of capitulation will be signed with the separatist regime of the self-declared republic.
Hovewer, shortly after that, the situation in the region has become dramatically changed. In response to the introduction of Georgian troops, Russia reacted immediately. Already on the same day, Russia introduced its troops through the Rogun tunnel, the only path connecting North with South Ossetia.
Russia to justify their invasion as the protection of its citizens (formerly Russia has granted citizenship to residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia), as well as Russian peacekeeping forces, which are located on the line both sides of the conflict. About 150 Russian tanks and armoured vehicles involved in South Ossetia. Russian aviation bombed Georgian positions. On August 9, the 58–th Army entered and the 76-th units of Airborne Division from Pskov were transferred to Tskhinvali and replaced the Georgian militaries. Georgian troops were driven out of the whole territory of South Ossetia.
However, confrontation between Russia and Georgia continued also on the rest of the Georgian territory. Russian and Ossetian troops entered to town of Gori, which left all its people. Gori is the most important strategic point, which connects the roads leading to western Georgia and its capital Tbilisi. Moreover, road to South Ossetia passes through Gori. An operation carried out by Georgia also started from Gori. For this reason Russian troops occupied this item. Gori has become a ghost town. After the capture of Gori, Georgia actually divided into two by a horizontal line in the northern part of Georgia where Georgian authority is no longer sovereign.
In addition, the Russian navy adhering to the Georgian Black Sea port, Poti, and also took up positions in the Kodori Gorge, a territory which in 2006 were occupied by Georgian troops during a military operation against the regime in Abkhazia.
As the operation by Russia completed, it became clear that certain steps are necessary for a ceasefire in Georgia. On August 12, President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev has decided to complete the transaction with a view to restoring security peacekeeping forces and civilians. Despite this decision clashes in Georgia between the parties are still continuing. In this case, the mediators were made by Western countries. Such as, French President Sarkozy has proposed a plan for a ceasefire to Moscow and Tbilisi. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also arrived in Tbilisi. As a result of these diplomatic moves on August 15, Georgian President Saakashvili has signed a ceasefire agreement in South Ossetia. The agreement was documentary evidence of the events of last week.
Before hold forecast of possible developments in Georgia and the region as a whole, should clearly explain the motivation of the government action Saakashvili. Came to power with the support of Western forces and mainly after the "rose revolution" in 2003, Saakashvili and his associates had incredible support from the population.
Georgians believed that with the advent of the Saakashvili government, which has been widely supported by the West as their democratic project, all problems will be solved. Mainly the new president faced the task of developing the economy of the country, which came to the decline after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But Saakashvili's main task was an attempt to resolve conflicts in the separatist regions of the country. The first successful step was removing Abashidze regime in the autonomous region of Adzharia and the establishment of a management of official Tbilisi. Although Adzharia has never spoken with the separatist ideas, the success of Saakashvili was described precisely in this perspective. It was believed that the next step will be to establish a central authority in the self-declared republic of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The euphoria of success has covered all parts of society in Georgia. I remember the arguments of Georgian political scientists during personal interviews with them in 2003 immediately after Adzharia events.
However, very soon it became clear that Saakashvili will be unable to independently solve the problem of integrating the country, as the guarantor of these entities acted Russia, which is granted own citizenship to the entire population of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In addition, the U.S. and other Western countries which fully supported the coming to power of Saakashvili were not prepared to face Russia on the issue, which has not been a strategic nature. In turn, Saakashvili and his associates had hoped it to support the West. Georgia openly stated its desire to integrate into Euro-Atlantic structures. In public institutions, together with the Georgian flag the flag of the European Union began posting, as a sign of commitment of Georgia to western values. Relations between Georgia and Russia have become increasingly deteriorate. Russia has imposed a boycott on the main export product of Georgia, wine. Soon, the price of natural gas to Georgia by 2007 increased at 235 dollars, compared with 50 dollars in 2005. Georgia would have to be difficult, if not Azerbaijan began its own gas production, as also had the opportunity to export gas to Georgia at a reasonable price.
Saakashvili's policy was based on what the West should support Georgia as its own democratic project. In case of refusal to support the aspirations of Georgia desire to integrate with NATO and the EU, should be considered as a failure of the U.S. and its allies. Meanwhile the U.S. provided just moral support to Georgian decision in matters of territorial integrity. Georgia paid an official visit to attend President Bush, exceptional case for Post Soviet country. The U.S. financing is continued to maintain Georgia. But with that all aid by the United States was limited. It seemed that the U.S. has become to abandon its own project "velvet revolution" and leaves processes in these countries in its own way.
Georgia could not but concern the situation. A landmark for the government Saakashvili became Georgia refusal of acceptance as a potential candidate for NATO at the summit of the organization, held in April 2-4, 2008, in Bucharest. It is noteworthy that the popularity of Saakashvili in Georgia has become a fall. Failing to solve key problems in his first term, Saakashvili faced with an increasingly growing opposition. At the end of 2007 mass rallies have held to protest Saakashvili government, forcing him to impose a state of emergency on November 8, 2007. And then, Saakashvili hold a snap of presidential election on January 5, 2008, where he has already received far fewer votes, about 56 %, much less than that in 2003- 95%.
Former associates of Saakashvili began to move towards the opposition. Saakashvili relationship with the former Defense Minister Irakly Okruashvili has sharply deteriorated after he accused Saakashvili of corruption, as well as the intention to kill the well-known businessmen Badri Patarkatsishvili and in the death of Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania in February 2005. Okruashvili was forced to leave the country. Another leader of "velvet revolution" Nino Burjanadze, who had held the post of chairman of the Georgian Parliament, refusing to participate in parliamentary elections in May 2008, also ceased its support for Saakashvili.
The international situation in the world has also become not change in favor of Saakashvili. In the United States in November 2008, must undergo regular presidential elections, where there is a possibility of electing candidates from the Democrat Party. In this case, possible change of policy towards supporting regimes came to power after the "colour revolutions". In addition U.S. officials said that the main U.S. interests in the Caucasus region are to prevent possible conflicts and move them into military clashes. In this case the U.S. tries to secure regional energy projects, passing through the region.
In this sense, Saakashvili military operation is nothing but a pocker game. Saakashvili, who understood that in the event of inaction, he may completely lose public support inside his country and over time also from abroad. Western countries not once have been exposed to unwanted situation where they had to face Russia, because of reckless actions of President Saakashvili. Operation launched in South Ossetia, was a kind of message to Western countries, which should have been possible action to suspend Russia. If Saakashvili will be successful, he once again returned to imagine the popularity inside the country and increased possiblities for integration into Western structures. How should the following events, adequate support Georgia has never got.
On the other hand Russia could not otherwise respond to the Georgian action. In the case of restoration of constitutional order in South Ossetia, the next step could be an operation in Abkhazia. Successful military solution to these problems could echo respond in Transdnystria and Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia could completely lose control over the processes in these regions, which in addition to threats to stability in Russia itself, would also hit on her image emerging world power. Therefore, Russia has decided to immediately respond to the situation in Georgia and has introduced its troops there. This step was simultaneously undertaken Russia and Western countries as a statement, in the identification and distribution of zones of influence on the world map. In this case, Russia wanted to demonstrate that the South Caucasus region is in its zone of influence and interference of third countries in the region can not arrange it.
Following the signing of the ceasefire agreement became clear one; the processes in the region received a new perspective and in this case should consider the possible developments within the region and its effects on third countries.
Actors and the Crisis
Georgia
The most tangible effects of events, no doubt, felt the brunt of Georgia. This country not only has not been able to restore its territorial integrity in South Ossetia, but also lost control over other zones after the invasion of Russian troops. In addition, Russia removed all the military equipment belonging to Georgia and hit it in their hands. Georgia faced a new problem of refugees arriving from the conflict zone.
With regard to the country itself, Georgia, it became clear that it alone will not be able to restore its own territorial integrity and fight with Russia because of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, no one will. Moreover, the latest operation now directly questioned the possibility of restoring the territorial integrity of Georgia. In Moscow has openly declared the impossibility of this step, as well as formally adopt the leaders of separatist regimes in the Kremlin. Following this, it is expected that Saakashvili's popularity will decline and if Western countries do not take any concrete steps in the medium term Saakashvili's government will fall and he can become a pariah in the country.
Russia
Despite the visible success of Russia in the operation against acts of Georgia, this situation could adversely for her turn. Already there is no doubt that Russia lost the information war Georgia. Despite the fact that Western countries have relatively weak reaction to its invasion of Georgia, this situation will be wrapped repeatedly against Russia. The U.S. immediately after the invasion of Russia in Georgia clearly decided to challenge the deployment of missile system in Poland. In connection with this contract was signed with that country. Already go talk of a possible exclusion of Russia from G-8 and possible revocation of its right of the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi in 2014.
In the medium term, Russia will try to strengthen the legal basis on the situation in Georgia. In this case, Russia will pursue two aims: the possibility of achieving independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the early removal from power of Saakashvili. It is noteworthy that despite the resolve of Russia, both objectives finally can be held directly harmful to Russia itself.
Regarding the independence of both areas of Georgia, could lead to even more complex situation in the South Caucasus that primarily affect Russia. Russia Caucasus region has always been precarious. In this case, the emergence of new nations could become a catalyst for irrevocable process in the Russian Caucasus: autonomous republics in the Caucasus may wish themselves on their independence, that at one time was the case with Chechnya. In the case of the unification of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Russia, these areas are about twenty years in a legal vacuum, ultimately may also adversely affect the processes in the North Caucasus. Not accustomed to obey any law, these areas could become a serious headache for Russia. In principle, and Russia itself is not particularly burning desire to recognize the two self-declared republic. These steps can be described rather reactionary. Thus, Russia is trying to respond to the Western draft, creating a new state in the Balkans - Kosovo. In addition, the actions of Georgia forced Russia to act in this manner.
Regarding the desire for removal Saakashvili, then I think that Russia will achieve little with his departure. Today, the situation in Georgia is that Saakashvili can be substituted by a pro-Western leader. But in this case, the new leader of Georgia will conduct a more prudent and balanced policy that will not give Russia the possibility to fully develop its own policies in the region. It should be noted that at the moment finding Saakashvili in power allows Russia to show more decisive action in relation to that country.
The U.S. and Western countries
The U.S., as the main force that helped Saakashvili came to power, forced to respond to the invasion of Russia in Georgia is precisely because, proclaimed itself the slogan of support for democracy throughout the world. The interests of the west in the South Caucasus region limited to the preservation of a peaceful situation, with a view to possible implementation of transport and energy projects. It should be noted that Russia during the incursion into Georgia, not damaged transport infrastructure like Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gaz pipeline. Although information on the destruction of pipelines appeared from time to time as it was not consistent with reality. These projects at the moment are in direct interest o the Western countries, and for this reason Russia is not intended to eliminate the infrastructure that does not directly face the dissatisfaction of the West.
The situation is very interesting, because at first the U.S. did not approve of possible actions of Georgia to restore its territorial integrity. The U.S. had no desire to engage directly in conflict with Russia because of the national interests of Georgia. However, the current situation could even positively affect the achievement of its own national interests and current U.S. regime. It is noteworthy that immediately after the invasion of Russia in Georgia, USA, immediately signed a contract with Poland to host the antimissile station installation, which Russia negatively reacted. In addition, the U.S. and its allies in NATO managed to agree on Georgia, which rarely happened in recent times within the alliance. Finally, the presidential candidate of the Republican Party McCain was able to match voices with another candidate from the Democratic Party Obama. It was clear his remarks addressed to Russia related to the situation in Georgia gave him the opportunity to reduce the gap in eight per cent of the votes that had existed before the events in Georgia. Paradox situation that possible developments in Georgia will help preserve the Republican seat in the White House.
In addition to the U.S., particularly during the escalation of the conflict distinguished France actively acted. It was President Sarkozy acted as a mediator between Russia and Georgia signed an agreement on a ceasefire. France, after coming to power, Sarkozy has increasingly been actively involved in international processes.
Without a doubt, this is its excellent relations with the United States. In this case the mediation role played by France was also indirectly expressed wishes and the United States itself.
The U.S. and Western countries have already taken position on the events in Georgia, unequivocally condemning Russia. The proposed steps are to tighten relations with that country. Proposed to suspend the process of joining Russia in a number of international organizations in which that country is applied. In addition, there is a proposal to exclude Russia membership in the G-8 and call for the withdrawal of the right of the Winter Olympic Games in 2014 in the Russian city of Sochi. Even if these proposals will not take effect, no doubt, for a long time, Russia will face a response, about the invasion of Georgia and Western countries will be able to use this situation to realize their own interests.
Turkey
Quite interesting was the reaction of Turkey. Country, which has broad political and economic interests in the South Caucasus region, no doubt could not remain on the sidelines of these processes. Prime Minister of Turkey Erdogan undertook a visit to Russia, and during a meeting with President of Russia Medvedev, suggested the establishment of a joint pact on collective security in the South Caucasus. Russia supported the Turkish proposal, and soon Erdogan committed visits to Georgia and Azerbaijan. Contacts on the proposal are expected with Armenia.
It is noteworthy that the proposal to establish a collective security pact, sounded on the part of Turkey is not in the first. Early such a proposal stood by former Turkish President Demirel. It is anticipated that the covenant will take place in three South Caucasus republics, Turkey, the EU, Russia, the U.S. and possibly Iran. However, both functions of the pact have never been agreed. The situation with the Erdogan`s offers is the same. It is not clear what would represent a pact. What kind of security will guarantee between Russia and Georgia, Armenia and Turkey, if these countries have mutual distrust each other? How will respond to this proposal Azerbaijan is to the possible cooperation in one covenant with Armenia, a country which has occupied 20% of its territory. In short, this pact does not have any specific principles or regulations and is the only form without a hint of its contents. In this case, support of Russia, this desire to buy themselves another ally in the world, which would be supported its actions in Georgia. Indeed, the only support for Cuba and Venezuela are clearly insufficient.
Motives Turkey can be explained that Turkey wants to protect its interests in the region and while not degrading relations with Russia.
Azerbaijan
From the outset of the conflict the country has expressed full support for Georgia in its desire to restoring territorial integrity. With their conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan could not do otherwise. Especially if successful, Georgia, Azerbaijan could also begin an operation to restore its territorial integrity. Today, Georgia is an alternative way out for Azerbaijan hydrocarbons to world markets. Events in Georgia adversely affected the interests of this country. Following the explosion in the Turkish section of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which occurred a few weeks ago, to stop pumping oil pipeline explosion and a railway bridge in Georgia, Azerbaijan, remained the only way to European markets through Russia. The specialists have already calculated that the possible loss of Azerbaijan have reached a billion dollars. BP is considering the possibility of reducing oil production.
As you can see, the situation in Georgia requires immediate clarification. Affected the interests of many parties and the conflict once again showed how fragile stability in the South Caucasus region and how important it is to save her. One thing is certain situation preserves the status quo in the region no longer the most effective measure. Now, more concrete measures to ensure security in the region.
Rovsen Ibrahimov, PhD. (JTW)
Great Article on Georgia-Russian War
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by .Czar
