EU demography a challenge for the future?

[Darsh]

"Pension timebomb ticks as EU population ages
By Zoë Casey
26.08.2008 / 18:00 CET
By 2065, almost one-third of the EU's population will be older than 65, according to a forecast published on 26 August by Eurostat, the Union's statistical office.
Although the study points to significant national variations throughout Europe, the overall vision is of a greyer, older Europe, with people living to a greater age while having fewer children.
Up until 2035, immigration will be sufficient to ensure that, despite a declining birth-rate, the overall EU population will rise. But thereafter, the population will decline as immigration will not be enough to counterbalance the low birth-rate.

Eurostat sees the EU’s total population for 27 states rising from the current 495,394,000, to 520,654,000, an increase of 2.1%, before dropping to 505,719,000 in 2060.

In more developed parts of the world, the fertility rate has to be on average 2.1 children per woman if the population is to be replaced by natural means without migration. But Eurostat’s scenario foresees a fertility rate of only 1.68 children per woman, far short of what is needed to maintain population levels without immigration.

The forecasts are supposed to help policymakers, particularly with the likely consequences for public finances.

Eurostat foresees that whereas today there are four persons of working age (which Eurostat takes to be between the age of 15 to 65), for every person aged 65 or older, by 2060 there will be just two people for every older person.

The forecast will increase pressure on policymakers to delay the official age of retirement, so prolonging working lives. Such calls have been a constant feature of the EU’s Lisbon Agenda for growth and jobs.

The study is constructed on the assumption of national variations being eliminated by 2150 (the convergence point), but does acknowledge that significant variations will persist for the moment.
Population growth rates will be as high as 67% in Cyprus, 54% in Ireland and 52% in Luxembourg. The population is also expected to increase in the UK, Sweden, France (excluding overseas territories), Belgium, Spain, Austria, Denmark, Portugal, Finland and the Netherlands.

But in the other 14 member states the population is expected to fall. The greatest falls will be in Bulgaria (-28%), Latvia by (-26%) and Lithuania (-25%). Population is also forecast to fall in Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Greece, Denmark, Hungary, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Malta and Estonia."
http://www.europeanvoice.com/article...ges/62047.aspx

[Probe]

Europe's only hope rests in Turkish immigrants. God help us. Allah help us.

[Heinz Guderian]

Europe's only hope rests in Turkish immigrants. God help us. Allah help us.

perhaps if whitey ed more? will this not save us from Teh Turk?

[Heathen Hammer]

perhaps if whitey ed more? will this not save us from Teh Turk?

Durex should save Europe by producing condoms with holes in them.

[molonthegreat]

We simply need to more problem solved.

[Heinz Guderian]

We simply need to more problem solved.

^what he said

[cenkiss]

We simply need to more problem solved.

I do not think europe has a ing problem because in europe must be first continent in ing.Because people in europe start ing at the age of 15.

[Probe]

I do not think europe has a ing problem because in europe must be first continent in ing.Because people in europe start ing at the age of 15.

Yeah? In America there are pregnant 10 year olds.

[Viking Prince]

This is natural if you want to be a developed economy with high value, high productivity jobs. It takes quite a bit of resources to raise our young. We are nuclear families that move to take advantage of employment opportunities. With less older generation support, later starts on families, higher standards of living -- a greying shift to the population is one of the natural results.

The EU has another set of features. One, recent mobility of population for employment. Two, recent membership in the club of states with much lower levels of economic developement. This has resulted in what will probably turn out to be short term shifts in population. Studies indicate that economic migration where there is ease of return tends to be short term. These populations tend to have higher reproductive rates, but this two will change as economic prospects and standards of living integrate into the EU model.

Religion is simply a scare factor. This will not fundamentally change the Frenchness of France or the Swissness of Switzerland. There is no indicate that Americans are not American if they are Catholic, Lutheran, Morman, Jewish, or Muslim. That is not to say such transitions will not bring about shortterm changes.

There will be changes in the social safety net. Retirement, subsidized by the government, will be later. Older workers will need to tackle the education required for new occuupations as economic and technologic changes occur since a 20 year career is differant from a 50 year career. There will be changes in disability with more of an emphasis on finding suitable work and less emphasis on getting a government check.

These challanges are not limited to Europe -- look to Japan and China for differant, but similar changes. End result, we will adapt and prosper.

[Darsh]

These challanges are not limited to Europe -- look to Japan and China for differant, but similar changes. End result, we will adapt and prosper.

It's right but USA don't have this problem, perhaps we should have a more flexible politics of immigration?

[StarDreamer]

It's right but USA don't have this problem, perhaps we should have a more flexible politics of emmigration?

Flexible politics of emigration? As in flexible politics of people leaving the country? Or did you mean immigration?

[Darsh]

Flexible politics of emigration? As in flexible politics of people leaving the country? Or did you mean immigration?

Yes, it was an error.

[motiv-8]

It's right but USA don't have this problem

Wha? Yes it does. Why do you think Social Security is becoming such a huge issue?

[danzig]

Wha? Yes it does. Why do you think Social Security is becoming such a huge issue?

Yes but social security isnt becoming an issue because of an aging population but because of reckless spending. Look at it this way, the average age of American is a rather young 31.7 compared to Germany (if I recall correctly) is 40. This particular program is one that we Americans dont share, we still hump alot and combine that with immigration and from pure population standpoint our problems arent/wont be rooted in that. That said these things change quite a bit and predicting so far into the future who knows how things will eventually end up.

[Tiwaz]

It's right but USA don't have this problem, perhaps we should have a more flexible politics of immigration?

They do.

Ethnic gangs in major cities etc etc.

Also, we have to remember that USA is young society without established unified cultural heritage.

It is very divided society. Lots of cracks to fall into.

Europe is not, our societies are centuries old in the least. They have been polished to uniform situation.

Multicultural system just does not work here. (for reference, France with riots, Netherlands murder cases, white flight in UK, rape statistics of Nordic countries)

Europe can't look at anyone else for example, we must make our own way. Because our situation is unique.

If we try to adopt US method, we weaken our societies.

[Каие]

OMG again with the useless population forecasts, none ever have been proved right. Te=hey been doing these for 50 years, and none are right. What happened to 80m by 2000 in the UK? Colonies on the moon?

[Heinz Guderian]

What happened to 80m by 2000 in the UK? Colonies on the moon?

where tf are my flying cars? huh? everyone said we'd have flying cars by now. well where tf are they? All we got is more old people, more traffic and a distinct lack of flying cars. You know how i got home from work to today? I drove home using a road cos my car doesnt ing fly yet.

edit: i hate you.

[Elrond]

These predictions are sensible and are based on the demographic changes in the last few decades.

The fact is that Europeans (and other peoples in the world) are having less kids and are living longer. For instance my parents are two or three years off retirement but three of my grandparents are still alive (and its not from becoming early parents - my dad was 36 when I was born). If you combine having less kids with a much longer life expectancy the natural result is a aging population.

The end result is that the retirement age will have to go up - the life expectancy of someone born since 2000 is over 90 so it makes sense that they wont be able to retire until 70.

On the plus side Germany's population is dropping whilst the UKs is rising thus meaning the UK will be the most populous nation in the EU by mid way through this century (unless turkey joins).

[phowa]

where tf are my flying cars? huh? everyone said we'd have flying cars by now. well where tf are they? All we got is more old people, more traffic and a distinct lack of flying cars. You know how i got home from work to today? I drove home using a road cos my car doesnt ing fly yet.

edit: i hate you.

Dont worry this one does

[Каие]

where tf are my flying cars? huh? everyone said we'd have flying cars by now. well where tf are they? All we got is more old people, more traffic and a distinct lack of flying cars. You know how i got home from work to today? I drove home using a road cos my car doesnt ing fly yet.

edit: i hate you.

Also in the 60's they said we'd all have robot maids by 2000. So there could have been a bot doing your washing, cleaning your flat and cooking your food. But noo.... damn Liberals!

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I have the solution we must began coital relations with the asian and black community...contaminate the pure blood. Europe must be brown. Mankind started off black 200,000 years ago, and we shall return so.

"From black thou was, and to black thou shall return".

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

To any anal fools, that was satire