The 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

**Mikelus Trento** · July 29, 2008, 10:10 AM

Since we are now under 100 days until the election, the candidates have been set, and the excitement is heating up, let's go ahead and start the prediction thread for this years election. Feel free to go back and edit your prediction as circumstances develop, and then whoever comes closest with the earliest dated post or edit wins the right to add a cool line to their sig...like mine.

Remember, this is for the ELECTORAL COLLEGE result, not the popular vote.

My prediction is......Obama 290, McCain 248

PLEASE folks...NO commentary, we have a thread for that already. Just the electoral college number prediction you want to make.

**Mithie** · July 29, 2008, 10:16 AM

Obama 60% McCain 39% Putin 1%

**Hotspur** · July 29, 2008, 12:52 PM

Obama: 272
McCain: 266

**Каие** · July 29, 2008, 04:41 PM

There's a stickied thread for everything US election.

**Mikelus Trento** · July 30, 2008, 08:31 AM

Originally Posted by ЯoMe kb8

There's a stickied thread for everything US election.

I am hoping this gets its own sticky, otherwise we will be scouring 10s of pages of posts the morning after trying to find the winner. And I also notice there are many posts with no numbers.

PLEASE folks, use this thread just for your prediction, and the main thread for discussions.

Whats your prediction anyways?

**Icefrisco** · July 29, 2008, 04:50 PM

Link to an interactive electoral map

Most realistic possiblity

McCain: 270; States gained from previous election: New Hampshire
Obama: 268; States gained from previous election: Iowa and Virginia

I think Obama may win the popular vote but will definitely lose the electoral vote. At the best he will get 268 electoral votes.

**Captain Blackadder** · July 29, 2008, 08:00 PM

Originally Posted by Icefrisco

Link to an interactive electoral map

Most realistic possiblity

McCain: 270; States gained from previous election: New Hampshire
Obama: 268; States gained from previous election: Iowa and Virginia

I think Obama may win the popular vote but will definitely lose the electoral vote. At the best he will get 268 electoral votes.

Well that seems a bit optimistic quite frankly personally I don't see McCain winning New Hampshire and Obama will make solid gains in places like New Mexico and across the North West. I think the map will be a lot closer to 2000 then 2004 where Kerry was white washed.

**Viking Prince** · July 30, 2008, 12:13 AM

Originally Posted by Captain Blackadder

Well that seems a bit optimistic quite frankly personally I don't see McCain winning New Hampshire and Obama will make solid gains in places like New Mexico and across the North West. I think the map will be a lot closer to 2000 then 2004 where Kerry was white washed.

New Hampshire can go to McCain. The national guard in Iraq issue is going away -- this can be big and not just in New Hampshire.

Bloomberg.com

At the peak, more than 95,000 Guard soldiers were in Iraq and 10,000 were in Afghanistan, said Major Randal Noller, a National Guard spokesman. Today, the force has fallen to 25,887 Guard troops in Iraq and 5,189 in Afghanistan -- the fewest since the march on Baghdad began in 2003.

Returning National Guard soldiers influence public perceptions of the war because most go directly back to civilian life, said Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

``Communities know when someone from the Guard is out, like a sheriff, a police officer or a doctor,'' Cordesman said. ``The whole community is likely to know it.''

Regarding the Kerry election -- he lost for many reasons but primarily becasue it was hard for traditional democrats to want to vote for him. Sen. Obama has some fence mending to do so it is really too early to tell.

The blue collar vote is important and not to be confused with the union vote. Unions are more focused on representing government workers today.

**Milos98** · July 30, 2008, 04:13 AM

Dont worry, McCain is going to win.

**alhoon** · November 05, 2008, 02:42 AM

Originally Posted by Icefrisco

Link to an interactive electoral map

I think Obama may win the popular vote but will definitely lose the electoral vote. At the best he will get 268 electoral votes.

Posted yesterday:

Originally Posted by Rebel Jeb

He has a chance. I'm tired of Osama fanboys thinking its over. Its not.

I guess this guy was disappointed that Obama won a landslide.

I was wrong when I said Obama would get just 300-310 electors.

**André Masséna** · July 29, 2008, 08:07 PM

McCain by 1.

That's all I'm hoping for at least.
Deleted quote from a censor bypass. Noble Savage

**jbersie** · July 29, 2008, 11:25 PM

This will be a close election. Whoever pisses off middle america least will win this one. And Vice presidential choice is crucial

**Viking Prince** · July 29, 2008, 11:36 PM

Originally Posted by jbersie

This will be a close election. Whoever pisses off middle america least will win this one. And Vice presidential choice is crucial

News media hype. I have never voted based on the VEEP. Be serious.

I suppose if one VEEP was serving time for murder and on death row -- this would convince me to vote for the other candidate. Really, both choices will be safe and will not matter.

**craziii** · September 04, 2008, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by Viking Prince

News media hype. I have never voted based on the VEEP. Be serious.

I suppose if one VEEP was serving time for murder and on death row -- this would convince me to vote for the other candidate. Really, both choices will be safe and will not matter.

wrong, vp for mccain is crucial, seeing how old he is, he might fall over and croak any time now. you know this is the truth, the older he is, the chances of that happening dramatically increases.

**Icefrisco** · July 29, 2008, 11:37 PM

Well that seems a bit optimistic quite frankly personally I don't see McCain winning New Hampshire and Obama will make solid gains in places like New Mexico and across the North West. I think the map will be a lot closer to 2000 then 2004 where Kerry was white washed.

New Hampshire has gone to the Republicans before and it is in a way McCain's "special state" since his victory there in 2000 launched him to political stardom. I don't think Obama will get New Mexico since there are still many blue collar Americans there and Obama's comments about blue collar workers probably killed his chances of getting the state. Obama might get Colorado but it isn't very urban. He probably will do well in Denver but if he doesn't win the surrounding suburbs and some rural areas he can't win the state. His chances of winning New Mexico and Colorado are slim.

**Daovonnaex** · July 30, 2008, 04:51 AM

Electoral vote
Obama: 303
McCain: 235

Popular vote
Obama: 52%
McCain: 47%
Other: 1%

**Panzerbear** · July 30, 2008, 08:43 AM

Obama by a small margin. however, we need to wait and see who they announce for VP candidate. this could be a major deal breaker for both of the presidential candidates.

**Mikelus Trento** · July 30, 2008, 08:55 AM

Originally Posted by .Czar

Obama by a small margin. however, we need to wait and see who they announce for VP candidate. this could be a major deal breaker for both of the presidential candidates.

Sigh, the very post after I asked fo no commentary and just the number prediction, and you have gone astray in both ways.

PLEASE.....no commentary.....just the numbers please. If you need to change your prediction before election day, just go back in and edit it, or wait until you feel you have a good prediction to make and post later. We still have 95+ days to go.

**Mikelus Trento** · September 04, 2008, 09:25 AM

Anyone else want to make their predictions now that the VPs have been selected and the conventions winding up?

I'll stick to my original prediction for now. And sure am anxious to hang another laurel on my sig.