Will China's emerging Middle Class bring about Democratic Reform?

[Farnan]

Do you believe that the rising of the Chinese middle class will bring about democratic reform in China?

I'm of the opinion it will. Middle class societies generally seem to prefer democracy to totalitarianism. Also the emerging middle class now have more time to spend not working, thus more time to read and get more educated, which greatly helps a society liberalise. I believe by the time China becomes a super power democratic reform will have come a long way, if it hasn't succeded by then. What is your opinion?

[Groenepuntmuts]

I think it certainly will, especially because of international pressure helping.
I'd like to a chinese opinion on this though, do we have chinese twc-members?

[Farnan]

A few of them, along with Chinese abroad that maintain contact with families in the PRC.

[bushbush]

possible. Middle-class leads to greater desire for power and representation, thus more internal pressure for political reforms. That happened in Taiwan and South Korea. It seems to be happening in China, though in a two-step ahead, one step backward style.

however, you can also cite the examples in Malaysia and Singapore where an authoritarian government, with a wise style of distributing benefits and patronage to a ruling class and also the use of a semi-democratic parliament (which can vent internal pressure), could indeed control a quite large middle-class.

there are a lot of x-factors in this. Personally, i am hopeful because the generation i grew up with, though quite nationalistic, is leaning towards democracy and is very frustrated by the corruption, inequality, injustice within the Chinese society right now. I think the real change could be when members of this generation became leaders in a few decades. China today is still ruled by people from the pre-reform era, like Hu and Wen, who were handpicked to be leaders 20-30 years ago. But what will happen when people who grow up in today's era (with the hatred of the current system as well as the knowledge of western political forms) become leaders, that would be interesting.

as far as a mass People-Power style revolt, I doubt it would happen unless China experiences a Great Depression or a war. Chinese culture values stability and endurance. It takes more than just political oppression for most of them to revolt, just like anywhere else in the world.

[Farnan]

as far as a mass People-Power style revolt, I doubt it would happen unless China experiences a Great Depression or a war. Chinese culture values stability and endurance. It takes more than just political oppression for most of them to revolt, just like anywhere else in the world.

I agree on that, I was talking about peaceful reforms like Britain more than a revolution like some nations.

[bushbush]

I agree on that, I was talking about peaceful reforms like Britain more than a revolution like some nations.

could be. I do see signs.

the one which went under the radar in the media for most part is the country-wide village level elections. The academic observers from the West were often quite surprised at the fact that they weren't rigged. But the campaign tactics do resemble the elections in the West in 19th century, i.e, candidate inviting the whole village for dinner...which is electoral bribe...

the other thing I notice is the greater freedom of media and speech. To put into perspective, 30 years ago, there was no free speech in either public or private sphere. THat means you would get thrown into jail for bashing the leader or the country or the revolution when you print it on newspaper, OR when you tell it to a friend or yell it on the street.

today, the restrictions on private sphere are largely gone. ing about government in private or even on the street isn't gonna get you in trouble. Public sphere is sitll restricted, but the range of topics which are allowed to be discussed have increased significantly. The reason is mostly the privatization of media firms. Editors who want to make money tend to push the boundries of censorship quite aggressively to attract attentions. Though a few of them every year gets fired or even jailed, most of them got away with it with borderline "anti-revolutionary" things. As time goes back, censorship is eroded more and more.

but as far as true institutional reforms, like country-wide elections or parliament with real power, that depends on the leadership and elites. Right now, both are still the people from the pre-reform era. They were born, raised and educated in that era. I wouldn't put much expectations on them to democratize China.

[Astaroth]

I don't think there will be a real revolt from within by the middle class etc.

what I hope instead is that China will have to face big recession or so, causing to instability and eventually making the country break up into several parts with a lot of chaos and all.

As a result, it might slowly become a democracy. As it is atm I don't think it will.

[bushbush]

what I hope instead is that China will have to face big recession or so, causing to instability and eventually making the country break up into several parts with a lot of chaos and all.

that sort of scenario will make China end up in an even worse dictatorship most likely, just like after the 1920-30s Chinese civil war, or the 1945-1949 Chinese civil war, not mentioning all the human sufferings such chaos would bring.

huge recessions or a big civil war would only smash all the existing political institutions, order and laws, creating room for a real nasty military strongman to step in and take over, just look at Africa.

[Astaroth]

You have a point, bushbush.

But I dunno, I probably prefer a China that is weakened severly for some decades and is still dictatorian than a strong, 1.5 billion people state that is not a democracy

[Miraj]

Thank you for the elaboration. That's all I was looking for. I agree.

[bushbush]

Thank you for the elaboration. That's all I was looking for. I agree.

size difference you think is a big problem? I wonder about that sometimes.

[Farnan]

size difference you think is a big problem? I wonder about that sometimes.

Perhaps China will become a Federal Democracy with Provincial and City governments like the US has state governments. This will seem to work better than a unitary democratic system for China.

[Exarch]

Perhaps China will become a Federal Democracy with Provincial and City governments like the US has state governments. This will seem to work better than a unitary democratic system for China.

i can see that happening
both countries are about the same size

[Lord Consul]

Perhaps China will become a Federal Democracy with Provincial and City governments like the US has state governments. This will seem to work better than a unitary democratic system for China.

I doubt it, Farnan, to be honest. The Middle Kingdom has a very old and strong tradition of unitary imperial authority. If China ever becomes a democratic republic, I bet it will be a unitary republic with some form of devolved regional authority given to the provinces and municipalities.

Most Federal Republics emerge in nations with a history of political fragmentation (the thirteen colonies, Brazil, Germany, etc.).

[Exarch]

I doubt it, Farnan, to be honest. The Middle Kingdom has a very old and strong tradition of unitary imperial authority. If China ever becomes a democratic republic, I bet it will be a unitary republic with some form of devolved regional authority given to the provinces and municipalities.

Most Federal Republics emerge in nations with a history of political fragmentation (the thirteen colonies, Brazil, Germany, etc.).

even the middle kingdom governed via prefecture where governors had qutie a fair degree of autonomy.
it's less so in today's china i reckon

[bushbush]

I doubt it, Farnan, to be honest. The Middle Kingdom has a very old and strong tradition of unitary imperial authority. If China ever becomes a democratic republic, I bet it will be a unitary republic with some form of devolved regional authority given to the provinces and municipalities.

Most Federal Republics emerge in nations with a history of political fragmentation (the thirteen colonies, Brazil, Germany, etc.).

you know wut's funny? Chinese politics is actually very decentralized, compared to many other nations.

Back in the old days, due to the distance of the emperor, the local government has quite a lot of power in terms of administration. They also had control over regional economic zone because China was a vast nation and it was separated into a few dozen relatively isolated economic regions (mostly due to geographical barriers).

even after 1949, compare to say USSR, Chinese socialist economy was quite decentarlized, a lot of planning was done at the provincial level, in contrast to the SOviet central planners. Once the reforms began, more power were delegated to local authority to create incentives for them to increase revenues and public investment.

in terms of politics, the term "warlords", zhuhou, is still widely used in Chinese politics to represent the force of regional political powers. In the past decade or two, Shanghai gang was the pre-dominant zhuhou power in the central government. But today, after the retirement of Jiang, Hu didn't have the power to suppress other local forces, so he had to share quite a bit power with representatives from other regional forces.

all in all, i would say chinese would be quite comfortable with a federalism style government. And dont be suprised if you see a very fierce competition for power between central and local authority. The Chinese saying goes, "the local snake isn't scared of the dragon from heaven".

[Farnan]

How about Austria? That used to be a unitary body but they became a Federal nation. But you may be right, though I think a Federal style government will allow better rule for the nation.

[JP226]

the issue with chinese growth is that it's population as much as it is a help it's also a hindrance. Equilibrium growth is naturally defined by things like labor, capital today and some z factor ie things like oil or grain or what have you. On the other end of the specturm, growth is governed by people, depreciation and the ability to supply capital equipment tomorrow. When those two equal, an economy has peaked.

Ultimately growth is governed by how much the rest of the world can supply. To get the equipment necessary to bring the majority of china's population into the modern world, you need vast/ immense levels of wealth and capital and it's possible that the extra capital does not exist. There are maybe 800 million developed world citizens. There are 1.3 billion chinese. And given those numbers the world is clearly maxed in resources and tech, it always is. To bring the average chinese into the developed world you'd need a massive influx of tech or a lifestyle down grading of american and euro populations. If you took the wealth of the EU and the US and applied it to the chinese population, the average productivity is under 20K USD to say 30 and 40 for europeans and americans.

I think honestly the most likely scenario for the future is that we won't see for sometime a world as equally developed as what we have in the west. The real future of say a super power, IF china is to become one, is that of an almost "third world" power. Where the average chinese is poor but when combined with all chinese the wealth and power is relevent on the world stage, if not the leader.

[bushbush]

^^^

good post JP. But I honestly think technology can break through the constraint in capital and other resources to rise the standard of living for the Chinese.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exogenous_growth_model

one real example i ve seen is rice production.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuan_Longping

"At present, as much as 60 percent of China's total rice grow Yuan Longping’s hybrid rice species. More rice so produced is enough to feed 60 million people. Worldwide, 20% of rice comes from the rice species created by hybrid rice following his methodology."

Unless their is a major uprising id say no since they have always had mobs of thousands of protesters outside the palace and they just beat them back and the day goes on like any other.

it doesn't work like that anymore. And it won't help much. Chaos is more likely to bring another dictator then a democracy.

[king spartacus]

Unless their is a major uprising id say no since they have always had mobs of thousands of protesters outside the palace and they just beat them back and the day goes on like any other.