unday Boston Globe Book Review Section (Cover Review on December 27, 1998)
"The machine of a new soul: Ray Kurzweil has a better record than most at foreseeing the digital future. His 1990 book, ''The Age of Intelligent Machines,'' anticipated with uncanny accuracy most of the key computer developments that unfolded during the '90s.
Kurzweil's credentials as computer guru are impeccable. He is inventor of the first commercially marketed speech-recognition system, the first computer music keyboard capable of accurately reproducing the sounds of real orchestra instruments, the first system that can recognize all forms of alphabetic characters, the first system for text-to-synthesized-speech, and other key developments in making machines behave more like us.
When his earlier book was published, Kurzweil's predictions seemed boldly futuristic, pushing the envelope of science fiction. But if anything, his prognostications were conservative...
In his new book, ''The Age of Spiritual Machines,'' Kurzweil now predicts that computers will pass the Turing test within 20 years, although the outcome of the test will for a time be controversial. Within 30 years he believes machines will claim to be conscious, and that these claims will be widely accepted. Further, he believes that late in the next century machines will far surpass human intelligence...
His predictions are based on a well-established trend and on a strategy for developing artificial intelligence... $1,000 worth of machine will achieve the computing power of the human brain by the year 2020, and exceed the computing power of all humans on the planet by 2060.
Kurzweil paints a tantalizing - and sometimes terrifying - portrait of a world where the line between humans and machines has become thoroughly blurred.
All of which challenges one of our most earnestly held beliefs, about the uniqueness and transcendence of the human soul.
Kurzweil's new book, like its predecessor, is a welcome challenge to beliefs we hold dear. Welcome, because we can shape the future only if we correctly anticipate where we are going. If we stumble into the future willy-nilly, guided only by economic forces, then the Age of Spiritual Machines is - in Kurzweil's view - inevitable, for better or worse.
And I happen to think that he is right." - Chet Raymo