If china allows elections, will the CCP win the elections?

[ray243]

Let's assume that in the near future, the PRC decides to allow general election in china, and allow other political parties to run the election, like the KMT and etc.


Will the opposition be able to take over as the new government, or will the majority of the people still vote for the CCP?

[Daneboy]

I think they will. They would control the medias, and election would only be a formality.

[Count Froody]

It's a vast difference between 'allowing' an election and actually allowing an election...

[ray243]

It's a vast difference between 'allowing' an election and actually allowing an election...

Let's say they REALLY allow elections...

And about media...well isn't FOX news basically known as a republicians media?

[Mongooose]

Really depends how democratic the election is. If its like a Zimbabwean election then yes, the communists would be re-elected.

[ray243]

Really depends how democratic the election is. If its like a Zimbabwean election then yes, the communists would be re-elected.

If it is fully democratic election, like how open the election is in USA and british?

The thing is, just because the current government may not be liked by the foreigners...does not mean they will not be popular among their own people.

If they open up china for election, there isn't anything left for the chinese to be unhappy about their government in general.

After all, the people may see the CCP as one of the party that can manage china well....

And in general, the people do not really hate the CCP too much...I can see the oppositon gaining seats in some areas, but in general, the CCP will still mange to get the popular vote I think.

[Erik]

I
The thing is, just because the current government may not be liked by the foreigners...does not mean they will not be popular among their own people.

Exactly.
Most Chinese seem pretty content with their government, especially now that China is doing so well economically.

It's also a big question what the opposition would be like, I don't expect much better from them (probably only a few hard line communists and some ultra nationalist).
Truly democratic parties need time to develop, at least a couple of decades.

and btw: don't they already have local elections?

[Pontifex Maximus]

Will the current regime be willing to relinquish power?

I doubt it.

GIven China's history, it takes years for a transition to take place and it usually involves a bloody revolution. It's the dynastic cycle.

Not that the communist party resembles a dynasty, but that's really all I have to go off of.

China is accustomed to absolute rulers, and I really don't think it will be easy for them to give up power, and that's assuming the "elections" aren't rigged. It could all just be a facade.

It would be cool if it happened though I don't really care either way.

[ray243]

Will the current regime be willing to relinquish power?

I doubt it.

GIven China's history, it takes years for a transition to take place and it usually involves a bloody revolution. It's the dynastic cycle.

Not that the communist party resembles a dynasty, but that's really all I have to go off of.

China is accustomed to absolute rulers, and I really don't think it will be easy for them to give up power, and that's assuming the "elections" aren't rigged. It could all just be a facade.

It would be cool if it happened though I don't really care either way.

Depends who is in charge though...Premier Wen Jiaboa is known for his more moderate stand and having said that democracy is the eventual goal for china....

Just because people are used to certain system for centuries, does not mean they will not accept new ideas.

From your reasoning, democracy will not even exist in the first place, simply due to the fact that people have never experienced democracy before.

Now, given that areas with a chinese majority can accept a full democracy in taiwan even when it has been under military rule for so many years...it's too much to say any elections will be rigged.

After all, we all know how the western media loves any party that oppose a communist party even if the opposition are worse than the communist. The oppositon parties in Russia which isn't linked to the Communist at all is just a very nice example.

CommuNazis?


You better admit, they are. Because Limonov's NBP (National Bolshevik Party) is essentially a Nazi Party (the "bolshevik" aspect refers to the need to come to power via Violent Revolution, unlike the NSDAP) is the largest and most popular party amidst "Other Russia" members.

Even the communists have dissuaded from "Other Russia" because they are complete lunatics and anyone associating with them will lose sympathies of Russians real fast.

And here's the Ultra Nationalist Wing:

Banner of Imperial Russia.

The people in "Other Russia" include Limonov - the clown behind NBP (his party is mostly made of young student radicals) and Maria Gaigar, daughter of the architect of Russian "prihvatization" Yegor Gaigar, whose mere name, like that of Chubais, throws most Russians into a fit of rage.

But of course whenever Russia comes into view, those clowns are champions of "FREEDOM" in Russian media.

Somehow, simple commies, say, from KPRF, for example who run HUNDREDS of opposition Rallies in Russia YEARLY, are not faved by the West ( hahaha), but those kooks are.

http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtop...2197&highlight=

Just a few insight on what kinds of opposition party russia has...

If we see this kind of politicial parties in china, I would say that the current CCP can more or less win a election easily.



And I can see a reason why the CCP will be willingly to grant a free and 'real' (if there is such thing as a real democracy)...if the CCP won without any foul play and etc, they can effectivly secure a real mandate of heaven in a sense, without a need for violence and legitmise their role as the leaders of china.


But as all know, western media will continue to 'distort' facts just to paint the CCP in a negative light, even when they have been elected through popular vote...


Mainly thanks to the 'brainwashing' that caused western media to thinks that a communist in name party is worse than a facist party...western media needs to shake out of their cold war mentality....

[Pontifex Maximus]

I agree with what you have said, and I think it's good China is moving (very very slowly) towards democracy, but just because the current guy in power is moderate doesn't mean the next guy will. China's stance could change with new leadership very quickly.

I didn't mean to sound like democracy could never exist in China, but I doubt it will be a peaceful transition unless the government is supporting it.

[Emperor Taizu]

I can assure you all that China WILL switch to democracy within the next 50-60 years. The government needs time to lay out a plan, because they know what happened to Russia. Russia was stupid enough to switch to democracy in ONE night. Guess what happened later? Ten years of extreme poverty. People lost their homes and jobs and were forced to sleep on the streets with low rations. Yes, China WILL have a peaceful transition once the government lay out a nice plan for the conversion.

[ray243]

I can assure you all that China WILL switch to democracy within the next 50-60 years. The government needs time to lay out a plan, because they know what happened to Russia. Russia was stupid enough to switch to democracy in ONE night. Guess what happened later? Ten years of extreme poverty. People lost their homes and jobs and were forced to sleep on the streets with low rations. Yes, China WILL have a peaceful transition once the government lay out a nice plan for the conversion.

Ah yes, that's what the west would love right? Romantic view of a sudden uprising and the sudden announcement of a free general election taking place, nevermind the potential damage it can cause.

[Scar Face]

Ah yes, that's what the west would love right? Romantic view of a sudden uprising and the sudden announcement of a free general election taking place, nevermind the potential damage it can cause.

You didn't read his post, did you?

[bushbush]

no.

Honestly speaking, most people around me hate CCP.

1. peasants hate CCP. The Hukou system bounded them like serfs to the rural region for 50 years. They suffered through numerous disasters thanks to the collectivization of CCP policy.

2. city ppl hate CCP. The failure of command economy produced huge number of crappy State-owned enterprises that are falling apart as we speak. Hundreds of millions of people lost their jobs with minimal social security. Often, they are in their 40s.

3. CCP's corruption is intolerable, even among Chinese, whose past government were all more or less corrupt.

4. People still remember Tiananmen. They don't mention it publically doesn't mean they don't remember it. It was on live TV in China in 1989.

edit:

THough CCP controls the public sphere of influence, within the private sphere, they don't control . People know what's going on with China. That's why there were over 70,000 large scale protests in China last year along, and still increasing.

[ray243]

I agree with what you have said, and I think it's good China is moving (very very slowly) towards democracy, but just because the current guy in power is moderate doesn't mean the next guy will. China's stance could change with new leadership very quickly.

I didn't mean to sound like democracy could never exist in China, but I doubt it will be a peaceful transition unless the government is supporting it.

There a reason why I attack western media for their biased news reporting at times.

I don't want people to become anti-west for the sake of anti-west. And moreover, if anyone really wants to see a peaceful transistion into a democratic country, the western media needs to ensure they do not stroke the nationalism of the chinese.

Bear in mind that the next generation of leaders will be educated in the west, and thus be exposed to new ideas and etc. The west needs to ensure that the ideals of democracy will be accepted by the people studying there.

Take the counter-protest as a example...while some people dislike the chinese protest, they needs to understand that most of the chinese students are exercising their rights in free speech for the first time.


If people don't attack on the national pride of the chinese too much, the next generation of leaders will actually grow up to accept democracy.

Everytime the western media critise the chinese for being anti-democratic or being a bad place to live in, they are basically destroying any chance of china being a democratic country.

Which is why the western media needs to be careful in reporting news in regards to china, if the western media is truly concerned about spreading democracy there, they can't afford to sent the wrong message to the liberals in china...the younger generation who is still studying in US, franch, UK and etc.


There are several case where a communist country can start a peaceful transistion to democracy. But it's up to the west to educate the younger chinese generation about democracy, so when they take over the leadership role, it will not be a violent one.

[communist]

i personally dont agree with china switching to democracy anytime soon. for one, our free enterprising needs to be restricted before certain elites gain too much power in lobbying politics and control certain parts of the country like lebanon. second of all, i dont fancy china becoming anything like what england is like now. way too politically correct with murderers and rapists staying behind bars for only 5 years. currently china can counter this with an ironfist. this is not to mention all the other benefits we have from our current system which i am happy with. i personally dont see democracy right for china just yet, and i would hope to find a better system than democracy which to convert to perhaps. democracy has its ups and downs, but people usually forget about the down side.

[Trax]

Russia was stupid enough to switch to democracy in ONE night. Guess what happened later? Ten years of extreme poverty.

It had nothing to do with democracy (and Russia or SU didn't switch in one night either), it was the agressive (and poorly conducted) restructuring of the economy, something that China has already finished doing in large part (not without some unpleasant results in old industrial regions).

[bushbush]

It had nothing to do with democracy (and Russia or SU didn't switch in one night either), it was the agressive (and poorly conducted) restructuring of the economy, something that China has already finished doing in large part (not without some unpleasant results in old industrial regions).

I agree with you on this one. There are two schools of thoughts on that:

1. The way they restructured the economy was too rapid and extreme. They dismantled the entire economic instituion before they could set up a new one.

In China, the state set up a dual-track system, promoting the new free market while at the same time, dismantling the old system step by step to prevent mass unemployment and rise of prices.

2. another school thinks it's more or less China's existing advantage in manpower and cheap labor enabled China to have a less painful route to reform.

In USSR, the state was already heavily urbanized and industralized. The price of labor is already high. Thus the reform being painful.

China is still an agricultural economy mostly in the 80s. Thus, once they invite foreign investment in, they have an advantage in cheap labor.


conclusion: both schools believe the degree of pain for reform in these countries probably had little to do with political reform. Diference approach in economic reforms and difference economic reality had different outcomes.

[Senno]

I agree with you on this one. There are two schools of thoughts on that:

1. The way they restructured the economy was too rapid and extreme. They dismantled the entire economic instituion before they could set up a new one.

In China, the state set up a dual-track system, promoting the new free market while at the same time, dismantling the old system step by step to prevent mass unemployment and rise of prices.

2. another school thinks it's more or less China's existing advantage in manpower and cheap labor enabled China to have a less painful route to reform.

In USSR, the state was already heavily urbanized and industralized. The price of labor is already high. Thus the reform being painful.

China is still an agricultural economy mostly in the 80s. Thus, once they invite foreign investment in, they have an advantage in cheap labor.


conclusion: both schools believe the degree of pain for reform in these countries probably had little to do with political reform. Diference approach in economic reforms and difference economic reality had different outcomes.

The Three Gorges project is a big part of the industrialization in China I suppose.

And with the rising use of coal, does China have any clean coal technology like we are working on?

[bushbush]

The Three Gorges project is a big part of the industrialization in China I suppose.

And with the rising use of coal, does China have any clean coal technology like we are working on?

not that I know of to be honest, cuz my province is THE biggest producer of coal, Shanxi. And as far as i know, China's way of using coal to produce energy is still extremely primitive and inefficient and polluting.

need to learn from US on that. also nuclear power. That will take a lot of time. But hopefully in the future.