Saudi Arabia, regime change wanter?

[Heinz Guderian]

Two interesting artilces i recently read:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/40-258.aspx
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/saudi/

One is about the Saudis building a massive missile complex which has the charactersitics of a nuclear missile base. Also they have been negotiating the sale of Chinese ballistic missiles which could possibly reach europe.

The other was about the funding of Saddam's WMD program by the Saudis and as well as the Pakistani one (which also proliferated to Iran, LIbya and N Korea). Also, the possibility that Pakistan has "leased" a few nukes to the Saudis.

Both of these sources seem to be a bit pro-USA, but often reliable.

The Saudis regularly torture, imprison political dissendents (and torture them) and cut off people's heads for the darnest things (after torturing them probably).

They also provided 15 of the 19 hijackers for 911 and said (now i'm paraphrasing) "you kinda deserved it" after the attacks to the Americans (King Abdullah's speech in New York a few days after).

Is S Arabia the Elephant in The Room? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant_in_the_room)

Is intervention possible/required?

[Lawrence of Arabia]

While they control the largest amount of oil in the world? Hmm, don't think so.

Orchestrating a coup would be dangerous, and an armed revolt would be disastrous.

[Heinz Guderian]

While they control the largest amount of oil in the world? Hmm, don't think so.

Orchestrating a coup would be dangerous, and an armed revolt would be disastrous.

C'mon, it'd be a cake walk. Low flat desert lands, a top heavy regime, political subjugation of the population, provider of terrorists in Iraq, WMD proliferator. It can be argued "mad mullahs with nukes" could be a better reference to the House of Saud. They hate Israel.

I read that they are so scared of their own population that they only allow pilots who have strong family connections to the ruiling clan to fly. We would be greeted with flowers.

[danzig]

C'mon, it'd be a cake walk. Low flat desert lands, a top heavy regime, political subjugation of the population, provider of terrorists in Iraq, WMD proliferator. It can be argued "mad mullahs with nukes" could be a better reference to the House of Saud. They hate Israel.

I read that they are so scared of their own population that they only allow pilots who have strong family connections to the ruiling clan to fly. We would be greeted with flowers.

Uh given the religious zealots in Saudi Arabia overthrowing the royal family however reprehensible they maybe the would be successors would no doubt be FAR worse.

[Aetius]

Arabia is the goddam home of Islam, any Western intervention would throw the Muslim extremists into Jihad. Combined with oil, the House of Saad are untouchables.

[Heinz Guderian]

Uh given the religious zealots in Saudi Arabia overthrowing the royal family however reprehensible they maybe the would be successors would no doubt be FAR worse.

Not if we force them to democratise and write a constitution for them. Not all Saudis want an oppressive Islamist regime. They care more about job security (the biggest issue in S A today) than burning uncovered women (i think that job falls to the government right now).


Besides how much more oppressive can you get than the current guys?

[Tajir]

Uh given the religious zealots in Saudi Arabia overthrowing the royal family however reprehensible they maybe the would be successors would no doubt be FAR worse.

Exactly what I was thinking. US/Israeli interests in the middle east and quite possibly the entire Muslim world, would face a huge shift if the royal family was overthrown. Imagine the Iranian Revolution x 100,000 and you probably haven't even reached the level of change that would be coming in our direction.

Things are not so bad the way they are, as far as American interests are concerned, so its best not to tamper.

[danzig]

Exactly what I was thinking. US/Israeli interests in the middle east and quite possibly the entire Muslim world, would face a huge shift if the royal family was overthrown. Imagine the Iranian Revolution x 100,000 and you probably haven't even reached the level of change that would be coming in our direction.

Things are not so bad the way they are, as far as American interests are concerned, so its best not to tamper.

And even from a Saudi citizen pov its probably not as bad as it could be. Yeah the country isnt free and human rights are a joke but it isnt Afganistan like where people are being shot on soccer fields. The thing with the Saudis is even if we accept the royal family as a necessary cap on something worse...what happens when oil dries up and they no longer have the wealth to buy/bribe to keep their power? Unlike other middle eastern countries, UAE, Kuwait etc who have invested in things such as tourism, built up large foreign investment funds the Saudis have done relatively little in comparison especially given their oil production. Yeah they have done some but most of it is personally owned by members of royal family...aka if the crap hit the fan so to speak they are going to bail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soverei...n_wealth_funds

In comparison to Dhabi, Kuwait its virtually nothing, I mean hell Alaska has done more with its oil revenue for long term benfit of its citizens the Saudis have. So definitely worries me.

[Каие]

We would be greeted with flowers.

Hmmm...where have i heard that before...March 2003...Washington.....oh yeah i remember.

[wilting]

One would think any Saudi nuclear deterrant would be in response to growing Iranian influence and similar Iranian moves.

Although its probably a prudent move in the context of dwindling oil reserves to hold off resource driven aggression.

I wouldn't worry too much about one or two missiles being able to reach Europe, both for political reasons and because of missile defence.

[Big War Bird]

People and complain about the Saudi Royal family, but they fail to understand that they are nicest people in that country.

[danzig]

People and complain about the Saudi Royal family, but they fail to understand that they are nicest people in that country.

Exactly, think of them as a big old ugly lock on a gate keeping worse things out (or in).

Not if we force them to democratise and write a constitution for them. Not all Saudis want an oppressive Islamist regime. They care more about job security (the biggest issue in S A today) than burning uncovered women (i think that job falls to the government right now).

I dont know if you are being humorous here or not. Saudis are the mack daddy, the big wolf of Islamic extremism. Doesnt even matter if its not all of them the fact is there are more Saudis who live for this stuff then pretty much any other country. Something like Saudi Arabia would make Iraq and even Iran COMBINED look like say oh Panama. Yeah waltz on into the country that is home to Mecca and Media then watch what happens. You'd have muslims blowing themselves up at a rate that "heaven" will have cut back on 72 virgins to 1 or 2 just to keep up with demand.

[Heinz Guderian]

. Something like Saudi Arabia would make Iraq and even Iran COMBINED look like say oh Panama. Yeah waltz on into the country that is home to Mecca and Media then watch what happens. You'd have muslims blowing themselves up at a rate that "heaven" will have cut back on 72 virgins to 1 or 2 just to keep up with demand.

yeah you're right. it was such a great idea at the time...

[Kiljan Arslan]

Really? Nicest peolpe who approve of the Religious police who beat women?

[Lawrence of Arabia]

I can see it now. Saudi citizens greeting the United States Marine Corps with flowers and dates as their Humvees rule into Mecca and Medina.

The rest of the Sunni world not too concerned that non-Muslims are forcibly entering the two holiest cities in Islam where non-Muslims were never allowed to enter beforehand.

The Middle East would be up in flames, likely due to them setting the oil wells on fire.

You think Iraq was/is bad? Try Saudi Arabia. A lot of the people there hate the United States of America and we are allies!

[Heinz Guderian]

I can see it now. Saudi citizens greeting the United States Marine Corps with flowers and dates as their Humvees rule into Mecca and Medina.

The rest of the Sunni world not too concerned that non-Muslims are forcibly entering the two holiest cities in Islam where non-Muslims were never allowed to enter beforehand.

The Middle East would be up in flames, likely due to them setting the oil wells on fire.

You think Iraq was/is bad? Try Saudi Arabia. A lot of the people there hate the United States of America and we are allies!

Ok. you convinced me. bad idea.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Ok. you convinced me. bad idea.

It's a necessary deal with the devil, really. We simply can not afford to piss off another country in the Middle East, especially an ally with a lot of oil.

Maybe if Iran and Iraq were super friendly. But, even then, we'd have to enlist Jordanians or Muslim officers to seize and overlook Mecca and Medina.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

To be fair danzig, people (specifically women) used to be shot on soccer fields in Afghanistan.

That was another product of Saudi ideology. Damn Wahabbi and Salafi movements.

[Kiljan Arslan]

Hmm maybe let the place go down and then let china try to go in there.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Hmm maybe let the place go down and then let china try to go in there.

Lol...China might have enough manpower to absorb all the suicide bombers in the Middle East.

They'd probably even leave Saudi Arabia "holier" from the shrapnel.