The collapse of the DPRK

[NakedBarbarian2]

What would happen? Would China and South Korea accept the inevitable flood of 20 million refugees? Would rogue elements of the DPRK military launch attacks?

[Dromikaites]

None of the above: the gang running North Korea now would be replaced by the second echelon who would turn overnight into democrats and businessmen. It has happened already in Eastern Europe.

[Panzerbear]

None of the above: the gang running North Korea now would be replaced by the second echelon who would turn overnight into democrats and businessmen. It has happened already in Eastern Europe.

QFT.

[danzig]

If it flat out collapsed I think you would be looking at a) a hell of alot of food aid b) slow reunification with south korea which of course would cost them billions to bring north korea out of the middle age.

[Exarch]

then you'd have a korean nation; united, and a nuclear power

[NakedBarbarian2]

then you'd have a korean nation; united, and a nuclear power

I think reunification would be a slow and painful process, especially given both China and South Korea would be in no hurry to accept 20million refugees.

With regards to nuclear weapons, i think if the south koreans wanted nuclear weapons they would probably start from scratch rather than pick up the pieces of a poor thirdworld country endevour.

I don't remember the source but the 'apparent' nuclear test device that was exploded a year back was only 1 tenth the power of the standard 'tactical' nuclear warheads employed by the U.S. (iirc the Japanese employed ground readers or richtographs to measure the power of the explosion) so it was a very small device. Probably very destructive but i don't think it would be the type of think that could level Seoul like hiroshima or anything.

[wilting]

Korean unification would be a lot more painful process than German unification was.

I can't see China accepting many refugees. Hell, that's the only reason they put up with the North. Its' a serious thorn in their sides, geopolitically speaking.

[Oswald von Wolkenstein]

Korean unification would be a lot more painful process than German unification was.

Yes, it's an entirely different situation. Germany wanted to be reunited. South Korea doesn't really seem to want that.

[Exarch]

somehow i doubt either china or the US will allow the reunification of both koreas, as it'll mean one of them will have to accede to the others' puppet.
my 2 cents.

[Farnan]

No they will allow a Korean re-unification. China will want South Korea to be its ally and will allow it. Remember there are many many historical ties between China and Korea.

[Eskali]

The DPRK will NEVER collapse it has been raped by the Japanese since/slightly before WW1 till WW2 then AFTER South Korea openly stated that they would destroy the North Koreans at any cost the North Koreans launched a Preemptive strike! Conrad Crane a military strategist wrote the American air force "had wrecked terrible destruction all across North Korea. Bomb damage assessment at the armistice revealed that eighteen of twenty-two major cities had been at least half obliterated."
If they can survive this and the break-up of the Soviet Union they can survive anything although they are going through tough times with droughts and floods.
Logic sense of the Korean war-Koreans invaded Korea

[NakedBarbarian2]

The DPRK will NEVER collapse it has been raped by the Japanese since/slightly before WW1 till WW2 then AFTER South Korea openly stated that they would destroy the North Koreans at any cost the North Koreans launched a Preemptive strike! Conrad Crane a military strategist wrote the American air force "had wrecked terrible destruction all across North Korea. Bomb damage assessment at the armistice revealed that eighteen of twenty-two major cities had been at least half obliterated."
If they can survive this and the break-up of the Soviet Union they can survive anything although they are going through tough times with droughts and floods.
Logic sense of the Korean war-Koreans invaded Korea

Ok well im sure that the North Koreans will get sick of having grass as their staple diet one day. Really there is no clear successor to Kim Jong Il his oldest son is a drunkard and his second son is a fop and apparently a paedophile to boot. As soon as Kim dies a general will make a stab at leadership then it will be all in. Whilst factions duke it out desperate civillians will try to make it over the DMZ some how.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

The DPRK will NEVER collapse it has been raped by the Japanese since/slightly before WW1 till WW2 then AFTER South Korea openly stated that they would destroy the North Koreans at any cost the North Koreans launched a Preemptive strike! Conrad Crane a military strategist wrote the American air force "had wrecked terrible destruction all across North Korea. Bomb damage assessment at the armistice revealed that eighteen of twenty-two major cities had been at least half obliterated."
If they can survive this and the break-up of the Soviet Union they can survive anything although they are going through tough times with droughts and floods.
Logic sense of the Korean war-Koreans invaded Korea

Are you Chinese, by any chance? I've heard many Chinese people try to suggest that North Korea had the moral high ground in that conflict. Or, perhaps, are you overly-sarcastic?

First off, North Korea didn't attack because he feared an imminent South Korean attack. Kim Il-Sung invaded because the Communist Party was soundly defeated in the 1950 elections in South Korea, and Syngman Rhee refused to re-do the elections.

When the North Koreans attacked, the South Koreans couldn't do much of anything to the Russian tanks. They had absolutely no armor or anti-tank weaponry. Even the underfunded American Army didn't have the necessary anti-tank weapons at the very beginning of the war. If you honestly believe South Korea was going to attack North Korea very soon, you must know nothing about the conflict.

The only reason North Korea exists as a state today is because they have thousands of pieces of artillery trained on Seoul, and they also possess nuclear technology.

[Eskali]

Are you Chinese, by any chance? I've heard many Chinese people try to suggest that North Korea had the moral high ground in that conflict. Or, perhaps, are you overly-sarcastic?

First off, North Korea didn't attack because he feared an imminent South Korean attack. Kim Il-Sung invaded because the Communist Party was soundly defeated in the 1950 elections in South Korea, and Syngman Rhee refused to re-do the elections.

When the North Koreans attacked, the South Koreans couldn't do much of anything to the Russian tanks. They had absolutely no armor or anti-tank weaponry. Even the underfunded American Army didn't have the necessary anti-tank weapons at the very beginning of the war. If you honestly believe South Korea was going to attack North Korea very soon, you must know nothing about the conflict.

The only reason North Korea exists as a state today is because they have thousands of pieces of artillery trained on Seoul, and they also possess nuclear technology.

Although North Korea is portrayed constantly as evil the American people will not stand for another illegal war especially if North Korea has the capability or thought to deploy nuclear weapons. Their artillery is obsolete with the development of precision guided munitions. I think that South Korea didn't have the ability to attack or destroy North Korea but they openly stated in press conferences that they would and the DPRK has always believed it's very survival is at stake.

Umm yes they did have better moral, the Allied forces had just been through another world war Americas army was making drastic cut backs and and the Cold war was emerging, only recently has morale reached a high.
North Korea's morale was high they had just achieved independence from Japanese slavery and they were fighting create a united Korea.
I am not Chinese, are you American?

[Mangalore]

What would happen? Would China and South Korea accept the inevitable flood of 20 million refugees? Would rogue elements of the DPRK military launch attacks?

The interesting question is china. In contrast to Russia with germany China wouldn't be busy with it's own crisis management so the question is how the US and China would reshape the spheres of influence there. The major reason for China to support North Korea seems to be:
a) korea is considered a traditional part of China's sphere of influence.
b) North Korea is a good road block to avoid a major US ally of the region to share borders with China so that US troops don't end up pointing guns at Chinese troops and vice versa.

Supposedly South Korea watched germany's reunification very closely and it had a very sobering effect on them because of the massive expenses germany had and continues to have due to a underdeveloped Eastern germany having merged with them. For Korea it would be much worse because East germany was one of the most productive communist countries of the Warsaw pact and germany one of the biggest economic powers barely capable to stem the money for such a task while the discrepancy between North and South Korea would be much worse.

I think the Southern politics mainly aim at maintaining peace and stability rather than aim for a reunion as quickly as possible.

As for rouge elements starting a fight. Theoretically possible the thing is that with the collapse of thei country they would be hardpressed to find soldiers to die for a lost cause. The very rumour of such useless sacrifice of lives led to the breakdown of military discipline. Even if North Korea is somehow much more fanatic the basic premises of a country's breakdown would mean they'd have their hands full with other stuff. A last ditch attack on anyone wouldn't affect any of the problems North Korea would have.

[humvee2800]

North korea is not a nuclear power, they have tested a single nuclear device which only have detonated, there nuke was about the size of a large bomb, hardly going to destroy south korea.

[Icefrisco]

It has happened already in Eastern Europe.

Yet, Eastern Europe has had minimal success(outside of Germany). Unemployment is very high.

[finneys13]

Slovenia is doing better than many old EU countries, Czechs are doing pretty well, the Slovaks and Balts are flying, albeit from a lowish base. It is not all bad news beyond the Iron Curtain.

[Axeman]

I try not to laugh at your posts Phonecian, I really do.

But if you think a weak nation like South Korea, at the time, would event CONTEMPLATE attacking a nation next to 2 ENEMY SUPERPOWERS you seem to lack common sense or be the apittamy of spoon-fed propoganda.

Are you North Korean? If so you are going to work in a labor camp for viewing filthy western lies on the internet....

[Eskali]

http://www1.korea-np.co.jp/pk/054th_...r/98080501.htm