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    Default An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    BAGHDAD — The Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr on Sunday took a step toward ending six days of intense combat between his militia allies and Iraqi and American forces in Basra and Baghdad, saying in a statement that his followers would lay down their arms providing the Iraqi government met a series of demands.

    The substance of the nine-point statement, released by Mr. Sadr on Sunday afternoon, was hammered out in elaborate negotiations over the past few days with senior Iraqi officials, some of whom traveled to Iran to meet with Mr. Sadr, according to several officials involved in the negotiations.

    Just minutes after the statement was released, however, two mortar shells fired by militia fighters hit the presidential palace in Basra, which is an active government office complex but has been at least partly deserted since the violence started. And in Baghdad, the Green Zone continued to be a target for mortar and rocket attacks throughout the afternoon. Street clashes also persisted in Basra and other cities, according to witnesses.

    Iraqi forces, backed up by American war planes and ground troops, have been in a stalemate with Shiite militias affiliated with Mr. Sadr in Basra for the past six days, in a military operation that has stirred harsh criticism of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

    Mr. Maliki’s campaign to take back militia-controlled parts of the southern city has met with far more resistance than was expected from militia fighters, Iraq’s defense minister, Abdul Kadir al-Obeidi, conceded last week.

    Many Iraqi politicians say that Mr. Maliki’s political capital has been severely depleted by the campaign and that he is now in the curious position of having to turn to Mr. Sadr, a longtime rival and now his opponent in battle, for a solution to the crisis.

    In the statement, Mr. Sadr told militia members “to end all military actions in Basra and in all the provinces” and “to cooperate with the government to achieve security.”

    But he also made demands, including an amnesty for fighters in the Mahdi Army militia and the release of all imprisoned members of the Sadrist movement who have not been convicted of crimes. While the government has occasionally made small-scale releases of Sadrists, it has resisted earlier demands for more sweeping action.

    The move by Mr. Sadr stood in stark contrast to his actions in 2004, when he ordered his militia to fight to the death in the old city of Najaf, suggesting that Mr. Sadr’s political sophistication and skill at military strategizing has grown in the past few years.

    “With this statement, Sayyed Moktada al-Sadr proved that he is a good politician, working for the sake of Iraq,” said Mahmoud al-Mashadani, the speaker of the Iraqi Parliament and a senior Sunni politician.

    Ali al-Dabbagh, a spokesman for Mr. Maliki, appeared on the Iraqi television station Iraqia and said that the government welcomed the action and that Mr. Sadr’s gesture demonstrated his “concern for Iraq and Iraqis.” Still, it was not immediately clear which, if any, of the concessions the Iraqi government has agreed to.

    Mr. Sadr’s statement did not appear to have an immediate effect on the violence that has rippled throughout the country and paralyzed the capital over the last week.

    In the Sadr City neighborhood, there were reports that two American Stryker personnel carriers had been blown up by roadside bombs. A spokesman for the American military, Lt. Col. Steve Stover, would not confirm or deny the attacks, saying, “We don’t discuss damages to our vehicles as that provides information to the enemy on the effectiveness of their attacks.”

    But Mr. Stover did confirm that American helicopters had made airstrikes in two other neighborhoods, New Baghdad, just south of Sadr City, and Ghazaliya in eastern Baghdad, killing at least five people.
    Could this mean that Sadr actually wants peace, it could seem that way, or have his forces just suffered a massive bashing?
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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Doesn't matter unless the politicians can act on this....Sadr can keep up this song and dance all he wants as long as it creates a stable Iraq in the future. Militarily he may not have much power, but he has a vast amount of influence on the militias in the area. TBH, I think he plays both fields to maximize his power. As long as the US keeps itself as the primary power in Iraq and keep outside influences weak, he will play ball. Should we lose power in the region (i.e. withdraw troops), you will see a radically different side of Sadr, and it ain't good.
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  3. #3
    MathiasOfAthens's Avatar Comes Rei Militaris
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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Presidents Malaki and Bush need to capitalize on this and open negotiations with Al Sadr. The amount of influence he controls would be crucial to the creation of a stable Basra and possible southern Iraq.

    President Bush however I suspect would be adamently against negotiating with "enemies" and any transaction between the Iraqi government and Al Sadr prob won't happen.

    American freedom to own guns "An armed Citizen is a Free Citizen", Those with guns should be allowed to protect themselves. Al Sadr has said it as well when he announced the end of hostilities. "Those who fire on government forces are not of my group" not an exact quote.

    I recommend that an election should take place, a free and fair election in which the citizens of Basra should decide on the future political and military responsibilities Al Sadr should hold. Maybe allow him to run for governor or mayor. Allow him organize the south, hes not a blood thirsty warlord. I don't know how religious he would be and whether he would initiate Sharia Law or keep the region secular, but when one man presents himself as leader and he is obviously has a large backing of the population it would be wise to deal with him politically in the public not militarily.

    Remember that although he may have lost a lot of men, he has also gained far more respect from the general civilian population. He is not blowing up kids and civilians. By sending the Army into Basra to take Sadr guns Maliki has made himself appear as the bad guy.

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    Lawrence of Arabia's Avatar Citizen
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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by MathiasOfAthens View Post
    Presidents Malaki and Bush need to capitalize on this and open negotiations with Al Sadr. The amount of influence he controls would be crucial to the creation of a stable Basra and possible southern Iraq.
    Technically, Nouri al-Maliki isn't the president. He is actually the prime minister. Talabani is the president.

    President Bush however I suspect would be adamently against negotiating with "enemies" and any transaction between the Iraqi government and Al Sadr prob won't happen.
    Bush doesn't control Iraq's policies. Besides, our government is against negotiating with terrorists -- not enemy militants.

    American freedom to own guns "An armed Citizen is a Free Citizen", Those with guns should be allowed to protect themselves. Al Sadr has said it as well when he announced the end of hostilities. "Those who fire on government forces are not of my group" not an exact quote.
    Well, I'm sure the American government would crack down on guns in areas where they are being used to commit sectarian or ethnic violence.

    I recommend that an election should take place, a free and fair election in which the citizens of Basra should decide on the future political and military responsibilities Al Sadr should hold. Maybe allow him to run for governor or mayor. Allow him organize the south, hes not a blood thirsty warlord. I don't know how religious he would be and whether he would initiate Sharia Law or keep the region secular, but when one man presents himself as leader and he is obviously has a large backing of the population it would be wise to deal with him politically in the public not militarily.
    There is already going to be an election by the end of the fall (or maybe winter).

    Remember that although he may have lost a lot of men, he has also gained far more respect from the general civilian population. He is not blowing up kids and civilians. By sending the Army into Basra to take Sadr guns Maliki has made himself appear as the bad guy.

    al-Sadr, if anything, has lost power over the last year. Some of his "followers" don't even listen to his orders.
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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Could this mean that Sadr actually wants peace, it could seem that way, or have his forces just suffered a massive bashing?
    Massive bashing.

    The US Military beat the living daylights out of the Mahdi militia while fighting Najaf in 2004 and Al Sadr made the same calls for a ceasefire then aswell.

    Quote Originally Posted by MathiasOfAthens
    Remember that although he may have lost a lot of men, he has also gained far more respect from the general civilian population.
    Actually he has, both within the general population and within the larger political strata too.

    By sending the Army into Basra to take Sadr guns Maliki has made himself appear as the bad guy.
    Iraqi public opinion seems to disagree.

    And if that doesn't convince you, then forgive me when I say that pictures speak a thousand words:

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caelius View Post
    Massive bashing.

    The US Military beat the living daylights out of the Mahdi militia while fighting Najaf in 2004 and Al Sadr made the same calls for a ceasefire then aswell.
    This is 2008. The Government demanded the handing of weapons and de-mobilization of Sadr's forces. Nothing of the sort happened.

    Operation Knights Charge, a drive to impose law and order in Basra, saw Iraqi troops beaten back at Mahdi army checkpoints and ambush positions in at least five districts of the city. The government was forced to call on US and British military help.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...0/wsadr130.xml

    The Iraq military must be ready then...


    Quote Originally Posted by Caelius View Post
    Iraqi public opinion seems to disagree.

    And if that doesn't convince you, then forgive me when I say that pictures speak a thousand words:
    And the proof is a photo? A photo that is equated to "Iraqi Public Opinion"???

    Meh...have another one...

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by Garbarsardar
    This is 2008. The Government demanded the handing of weapons and de-mobilization of Sadr's forces. Nothing of the sort happened.
    I was simply using the allusion to buttress my point. I know very well that the militia never handed over their weapons. It doesn't change the fact that they've taken losses so heavy to this point that Sadr is now pressing for a ceasfire.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...0/wsadr130.xml

    The Iraq military must be ready then...
    You can't expect the Iraqi Military's first large scale operation independent of Coalition leadership to run entirely smooth do you?

    And the proof is a photo? A photo that is equated to "Iraqi Public Opinion"???

    Meh...have another one...
    Who said anything about proof?

    I was stating that a picture speaks a thousand words.

    What do you think the odds are that those people with the Sadr sign are not either in Sadr City or Basra?

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caelius View Post
    I was simply using the allusion to buttress my point. I know very well that the militia never handed over their weapons. It doesn't change the fact that they've taken losses so heavy to this point that Sadr is now pressing for a ceasfire.
    Or that Sadr simply does not need to push his point further at the moment.



    Quote Originally Posted by Caelius View Post
    You can't expect the Iraqi Military's first large scale operation independent of Coalition leadership to run entirely smooth do you?
    Beaten= not entirely smooth

    I will add that to the Great Dictionary of Sun Ray Cure speech:

    Last throes= three more years (at least) of fighting.
    6 weeks, maybe 6 months=5 years
    WMD=nothing
    Not a civil war=civil war
    Beaten= not entirely smooth

    It fits!



    Quote Originally Posted by Caelius View Post
    Who said anything about proof?

    I was stating that a picture speaks a thousand words.


    Ah, but which thousand words exactly?

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by Garbarsardar View Post


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...0/wsadr130.xml

    The Iraq military must be ready then...



    Wants the deal are Iraqis being trained poorly or are they natural poor soldiers, then again the militants are Iraqis so .....
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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Caelius I should have rephrased that actually I should have said Public opinion in Basra increased toward Al Sadr. I did not mean of the whole country, that would suggest there was a sense of nationalism through the country.
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    Last edited by MathiasOfAthens; May 11, 2011 at 12:41 AM.

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by MathiasOfAthens View Post
    Caelius I should have rephrased that actually I should have said Public opinion in Basra increased toward Al Sadr. I did not mean of the whole country, that would suggest there was a sense of nationalism through the country.
    There is Iraqi Nationalism, very few Iraqis want to not be Iraqi...
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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by Farnan View Post
    There is Iraqi Nationalism, very few Iraqis want to not be Iraqi...

    So your saying that the Iraqis are united based on the fact that they don't want to be united.
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    Last edited by MathiasOfAthens; May 11, 2011 at 12:41 AM.

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    @Lawrence My mistake with the PM, but with Bush he does have control over US forces and there wouldn't be Peace if Bush for some unknown reason decided to commit forces against Al Sadr.
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    Last edited by MathiasOfAthens; May 11, 2011 at 12:41 AM.

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    @Caelius If I would to say that the Republic Guard could have run this op smoothly I would sound like an and arrogant so I won't.
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    Last edited by MathiasOfAthens; May 11, 2011 at 12:41 AM.

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    An army of sheep led by a wolf is stronger than an army of wolves led by a sheep. Perhaps its the leadership, then again isn't it always about the leadership in wars.
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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by MathiasOfAthens
    @Caelius If I would to say that the Republic Guard could have run this op smoothly I would sound like an and arrogant so I won't.


    Is that a rhetorical question?

    The Republican Guard were quite good at running these types of operations.

    Quote Originally Posted by Garbarsardar
    Or that Sadr simply does not need to push his point further at the moment.
    What point would that be?

    The point where he's lost public support? The point where some factions within his organizational powerbase no longer follow his orders? The point where his political influence is so decreased that many oft eh other Iraqi political parties will freely walk out on his own and throw their support to Maliki?

    Need me to go further?

    Beaten= not entirely smooth
    .....

    Do you even know how Operation Knight's Charge has progressed over the last 6 days?

    Seriously. What Iraqi units have been involved? What was their battleplan? How has it worked out? Indulge me.

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    @Caius Actually I kinda wanted to point out that if we didn't disband the Rep guard we prob wouldn't be so deep in a pile of Sh9t that were in now.
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    Last edited by MathiasOfAthens; May 11, 2011 at 12:42 AM.

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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Do you even know how Operation Knight's Charge has progressed over the last 6 days?

    Seriously. What Iraqi units have been involved? What was their battleplan? How has it worked out? Indulge me.
    Answer: It hasn't.
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    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Actually he doesn;t want to be killed or arrested as he wants to be in the Cabinet or get into Politics, int he Middle East the best way to do that is a) Have the backing of the west or b) have the backing of a massive army

  20. #20

    Default Re: An end to the fighting in Iraq?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sushiman View Post
    Could this mean that Sadr actually wants peace, it could seem that way, or have his forces just suffered a massive bashing?
    That's one way to see it.

    Another way would be that he has concluded this is not the right time to unleash his followers.

    Another would be that Iran has told him to stand down.
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