World War 3, viable?

[Exarch]

how realistic do you guys reckon a third world war on a similar scale as ww2 would be in the near future?
and under which circumstances? eg iran going nucler, pakistan going reaaally extreme, china and US...
or would the third world war be economic? seeing 'casualties' such as foreign takeovers and ensuing trade wars?
or would it be an industrial 'space race' war?

Discuss

[PointOfViewGun]

It's not that hard to start one. You just need someone to do something stupid and others to follow it.

[CtrlAltDe1337]

Launch a few nukes and you've got WW3 in a heatbeat.

[Kiljan Arslan]

If you mean drawn out with mass forces and bombing campaigns? Not really unfortonatley (well from my POV) SDI has still shown that its got alot of problems , and until SDI is developed don't be expecting to see anything approaching a conventional war for another 20 years at least.

[Twfan55]

Iran wont start it, maybe Russia will if the US gets them PO enough.

[Segestan]

100%....the financial crisis, islamic extremism , collapse of Asia , Israel on the brink these will bring a war like no other.

[Exarch]

100%....the financial crisis, islamic extremism , collapse of Asia , Israel on the brink these will bring a war like no other.

what do u mean by 'collapse of asia'?

[beranas]

World War 3 is bound to happen within the next 20-30 years for the following reasons:

1. The US economy is in a state of almost irreparable recession. The housing market has crashed in the southern states, has moved to California and soon could advance on the richer, northern metropolises. Combine that with over loaned mortgages to people who couldn't afford a 40-year lease and banks dropping out like flies and you lose a financial base on which to rebuild the economy.
Then you have to look at the job situation. A great deal of America's manufacturing and management positions are not held by Americans. Instead, workers and managers in India, China, Thailand, etc. are producing all of the necessities that the country uses. Now, it's all fine and good to have your goods produced for a criminally low price, but there needs to be money in the consumer's hands if you are even going to consider purchasing the item. So, the fact that the stores are full of electronics and food doesn't matter if the people have no jobs to pay for them.

2. Trade with the U.S. is starting to look less and less appealing to industrialized nations. As I said prior, economic recession is occurring on such a large scale that the Canadian dollar, which in 1996 was were 66 cents American, is on par. Not only that, but the Canadian government is actually being forced to devalue the dollar since the cost of American goods is cheaper than Canadian goods, which have been overpriced for close to 20 years. The European union, specifically Germany, is a far better market for trading goods with now that the Fall of the American dollar is so evident. China has 1 billion people who are starting to acquire money due to their manufacturing business and establishment of capital centers such as Shanghai and Hong Kong. India faces to same destiny. If the recession continues on the same path for the next 20-30 years, the global market will shift towards these two powerful markets: The Far East (China, Japan, India), and Europe.

3. War! Middle East! America! Israel! Need I say more?

Combine all those factors and you have a clusterf@$# of conflict between Europe, America, and China over oil reserves in the Middle East (ie. Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia), the rise of America as a military state, and aggressive actions by the U.S. in order to regain control of the shifting global market. I'm buying my bomb shelter already!

[Kiljan Arslan]

Of course it's America who starts it. HOw the hell is asia going to collapse?

[Caelius]

It'll probably start as a spat between Russia and China over Siberia or Outer Manchuria. Or as a brief exchange between India and Pakistan.

Either way, i'm putting most of my bets on the flashpoint being somewhere in Central or Eastern Asia. The brasshats at the Pentagon would probably be in agreement with me too, especially given the rediculous amounts of men, material, and firepower that's been re-allocated to that part of the world in the last 5 years.

Asia is definitely shaping to be the new geo-strategic stomping ground for the big kids on the block in the 21st Century.

[Chaigidel]

when we start really running out of resources that kind of war will come again.

[The Sixth Wizard]

There will not be a WW3. The worst that could happen is more Cold Wars over nuclear programs.

What I fear is a growing China beating the US in the said Cold War and their heavy-handed dealings with dissent. I don't want the US as the world's superpower, but I want China even less.

Not to mention global warming making the crap hit the fan. That prospect's scarier than WW3 for me.

[Sebdeas]

Well nobody wants to start a big war with nukes still being viable. So when the US finish their rocket shield and it's actually working, other countries are going to copy it. With nukes out of the way WW3 can start a lot easier.

[Sphere]

The Global Economy inhibits any motivations for war by the major world powers. This economic interdependency restricts the key steps that lead up to war. The EU may complain about Russia, but they still must buy its oil. Likewise, China might not like US foriegn policy, but they need the billions in export sales to the US. Even Irans economy would collapse if it were to stop selling oil to the west.


There are no political issues that could outweigh trillions of dollars in trade.

[bushbush]

i doubt it....supers powers today are so darn dependent on one another economically that they DARE NOT to declare war....just think China trying to fight US or EU...isn't that economical suicide? Unless Chinese leaders are Kim Jong-ilish...they probably won't do that.

[ivan_the_terrible]

The Global Economy inhibits any motivations for war by the major world powers. This economic interdependency restricts the key steps that lead up to war. The EU may complain about Russia, but they still must buy its oil. Likewise, China might not like US foriegn policy, but they need the billions in export sales to the US. Even Irans economy would collapse if it were to stop selling oil to the west.


There are no political issues that could outweigh trillions of dollars in trade.

Excellent summary! Could not agree more!

[Gelgoog]

only major war i could see happening is if some nutso country like iran tries to invade israel and garners support from other middle east countries creating a regional war in which a major power say china backs the invaders and US steps in sending troops into israel. A counter attack is launched by israel into these nations followed by the US invading iran. Then the whole middle east turns into one big storm and the rest of the world is drawn into the whole thing. unlikely but you never know.

[humvee2800]

1. The US economy is in a state of almost irreparable recession. The housing market has crashed in the southern states, has moved to California and soon could advance on the richer, northern metropolises. Combine that with over loaned mortgages to people who couldn't afford a 40-year lease and banks dropping out like flies and you lose a financial base on which to rebuild the economy.
Then you have to look at the job situation. A great deal of America's manufacturing and management positions are not held by Americans. Instead, workers and managers in India, China, Thailand, etc. are producing all of the necessities that the country uses. Now, it's all fine and good to have your goods produced for a criminally low price, but there needs to be money in the consumer's hands if you are even going to consider purchasing the item. So, the fact that the stores are full of electronics and food doesn't matter if the people have no jobs to pay for them.

Many manufacturing jobs still exist in north america, primarily higher level manufacturing as well as agriculture and resources. The Idea that the coming recession is irreperable is silly.



2

. Trade with the U.S. is starting to look less and less appealing to industrialized nations. As I said prior, economic recession is occurring on such a large scale that the Canadian dollar, which in 1996 was were 66 cents American, is on par. Not only that, but the Canadian government is actually being forced to devalue the dollar since the cost of American goods is cheaper than Canadian goods, which have been overpriced for close to 20 years. The European union, specifically Germany, is a far better market for trading goods with now that the Fall of the American dollar is so evident. China has 1 billion people who are starting to acquire money due to their manufacturing business and establishment of capital centers such as Shanghai and Hong Kong. India faces to same destiny. If the recession continues on the same path for the next 20-30 years, the global market will shift towards these two powerful markets: The Far East (China, Japan, India), and Europe.

Except the devalued dollar is increasing, Also Canada need not worry as America still needs and wishes for our natural resources, which if properly managed are renewable.

3. War! Middle East! America! Israel! Need I say more?

Combine all those factors and you have a clusterf@$# of conflict between Europe, America, and China over oil reserves in the Middle East (ie. Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia), the rise of America as a military state, and aggressive actions by the U.S. in order to regain control of the shifting global market. I'm buying my bomb shelter already!

Have fun in youre compound... nutcase

[The Last Spartan]

It only takes a trickle to turn into a flood.

Remember World War 2? It started as a bunch of nutcases taking their countries out of economic and social crises. Then boom! Germany annexes Austria, then another boom! we get a couple dead German soldiers on the Polish border, next thing you know half of Germany is rolling across Poland, then UK and France gets pissed off then all hell breaks loose!

And plus Seth is right, it just takes one really stupid thing to happen, and for others to follow. Remember Cuba? We came very close to World War 3 then. If you're looking for the most likely things to cause World War 3, read. Don't watch the news, cause they're only going to give you what they want you to see. In fact I think that the most likely thing to spark WW3 is either North Korea goes psycho or the Dome of the Rock is destroyed.

Why? Because there's enough Muslim psychos out there to start an invasion of Israel, then pretty much watch the dominos fall. Then come UN and US peace keepers, then NATO steps in, then the surrounding countries, and next thing you know half of the world is in the Arabian peninsula duking it out over an ancient building with extremely high cultural value.

Then again, that's only what I think is possible.

[Icefrisco]

Here are a few possibilities for the next world war:

1) Chinese expansion- The pollution crisis in China has reached a high point. Thousands of Chinese are dieing everday and the urban populations are becoming hostile. The only way to keep the angry masses happy is through military conquests. Either by invading North Korea(to create a true communist state), invading India(to settle old rivalries), or invading Taiwan(to create 1 China) China will piss of many other countries in the world and force other nations to create a coalition against it. China will have very few allies but its massive army and navy means it could fight on huge fronts across Eurasia and possibly the Pacific.

2) Egyptian civil war- With Egypt being divided between secularists and fundamentalists, a civil war breaks out. Libya and Syria send forces to help the fundamentalists while Saudi Arabia and Jordan send forces to help the secularists. As the situation in Egypt worsens other nations are gradually drawn into the conflict and after sometime the conflict turns into a global war.

3) German rivalry with Russia- Gradually as time goes by, Germany and Russia become more and more powerful then the other European countries. Both of them compete economically and gradually, the economic competition creates national hatreds. Eventually, something will spark a conflict(possibly a German claim on Kaliningrad or German requests for Russia to end its domination of Georgia and/or Belarus). The international community will be unable to stop a conflict between the two nations and gradually other countries join the belligerents which leads to a world war.

4) Assassination of wester leader visiting Kosovo- Though years after the loss of Kosovo, many Serbs are bitter towards the new country and especially the west who helped create it. Thinking Serbs no longer have contempt for the west, a western leader visits Kosovo to see how well the country is doing. He/she is killed by a Serb and NATO countries blaim Serbia and declare war on it. Being close allies with Serbia, Russia declares war on the western countries and a world war ensues.

5) New massacres of Chinese in Indonesia- A new wave of pogroms against Chinese in Indonesia caused by discontentment among the people causes thousands of Chinese to die. However, China wants to flex its muscles and orders the Indonesian government to stop the killings. However, the Indonesian government is unable to stop the massacres and China declares war. In order to get a better point to launch an invasion of Indonesia, China demands the ability to station troops in Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia. One of them refuses to allow Chinese troops and other nations from around the world rush to stop China's advance. Meanwhile, some nations ally with China and gradually, fighting across the globe ensues between China's allies and the anti-China forces.

Some of my scenarios for the next world war are not obvious. However, often the obvious reasons for war are never the actual catalysts for conflict. Most people expected World War 1 to occur because of the conflict over Morocco or the Great Game in central Asia. World War 2 was expected to occur because of Italy's invasion of Ethiopia or the Spanish Civil War. All of the reasons that people at the time thought would cause a world war never did.

Also, most of my scenarios are not meant to occur in the immediate future. Even the Kosovo scenario is expected to take place in about 5-15 years.

I think the most likely to occur is the assassination of a western leader in Kosovo.