Do you have faith in America?

[CK23]

This is mostly meant for Americans, I mean at the rate were going with the world, do you believe that America can survive?

I'm pro-America all the way but at this point it's starting to worry even me. I see it as were the Next Roman Empire/Roman Republic.

[gaius valerius]

All hegemons are meant to go down once in history. In this aspect I look at it from structuralist theories, mainly in the tradition of Wallerstein, Arrighi and Gramsci. The USA has been the undisputed hegemon since 1945, but its first phase of hegemony, the so-called 'material phase' in which they virtually monopolise production. From the 1970's onwards, after they sorta 'betrayed' the western world by suddenly and unilaterally ending the classic Bretton Woods system, they had lost their material advantage. From then on the hegemon goes into a decline, or stagnation, depends how you want to interpret it. Other players like Germany and Japan catch up in terms of production. The USA is no longer economically dominant, but rather has to share this position with many new players. They now enter the 'financial phase', in which they retain their dominance through the financial importance they gained in the previous phase. Today the USA is still in this phase.

Whether or not the USA has been a unilateral power since the 1991 or that the post-commie period has always been multilateral is open to debate. Personally I think the latter is more correct. The USA has never regained its unilateral dominance like they had it in 1945. What they do retain is there military power.

Economically the USA will decline in the near future. Americans are living above their standards, as the recent financial crisis in the US has shown us. But don't worry, you're to big of a nation to completely disappear out of the picture. Military you'll stay the strongest player for quite some decades, but economically and politically you'll have to accept you'll be a lesser god.

[CK23]

^Hmm I see. I've always known in my right mind that one day our government is going to take a backseat. I've accepted that and I'm fine with that, but I mean...Having faith that we won't have another civil war or have another major attack on our soil. Thats what I mean in faith, faith in protection and spirit economy.

[Pontifex Maximus]

^Hmm I see. I've always known in my right mind that one day our government is going to take a backseat. I've accepted that and I'm fine with that, but I mean...Having faith that we won't have another civil war or have another major attack on our soil. Thats what I mean in faith, faith in protection and spirit economy.

The next 20 years is going to be decisive. If a democrat is elected that wants an immediate withdrawl from the Mid East, we're in trouble. If we stick our noses into something, we sure as hell better make sure we clean up before we leave.

[gaius valerius]

Honestly, I think you Americans have alrdy screwed up the Middle East big time and nothing you'll do in the coming decades will change your reputation - and that of most of the so-called 'West' as a whole - over there. Whether you stay or go, things are FUBAR-ed.

Clean up? To correct the stuff you've done wrong over there, you'd best just wipe out the entire Middle Eastern populace, at least then there will be nobody left to hold a grudge against you.

[William the Bastard]

Well, as far as I can see the only way for America to hold on to the reigns of power longer than it will, is for her people to go against something that they hold dear to themselves. They need to become imperialists.

The structure for such a transition is already there but what stops it happening is the American psychology of being the under dog. The US was formed by beating a superpower but now it is the superpower herself, she shrugs it off.

It would be ludicrous for me or anyone else to give a time line for how long the US hegemony will last but one thing is for sure in that no one knows how benevolent the future leading nations will be.

[Erik]

They now enter the 'financial phase', in which they retain their dominance through the financial importance they gained in the previous phase. Today the USA is still in this phase.

The financial phase only lasts as long as the money lasts.
And that's exactly America's problem: rather than lending out their money and living off the interests for another century or two (like most superpowers did before them) they did the exact opposite: borrowing money and spending it all.
And now the money has run out and with it has America's future as a global power.

[Gelgoog]

The financial phase only lasts as long as the money lasts.
And that's exactly America's problem: rather than lending out their money and living off the interests for another century or two (like most superpowers did before them) they did the exact opposite: borrowing money and spending it all.
And now the money has run out and with it has America's future as a global power.

lol sure. one thing about getting loans from other countries like china, is that we really arent forced to repay them. were making their money work for our economy, as they say in the business OTM( other peoples money). unlike a regular business loan, the chinese can't just call up and say we want our money, because that would crash the american economy and likewise destroy the chinese economy which depends so heavily on ours. remember all those wartime loans that the US dismissed via lend lease and the marshal plan? yea thats what were talking about.

[gaius valerius]

Well IMO the financial phase has pretty much run its course. The USA is by far no longer the sole dominant state in the world. Military yes, but economically they have to witness Europe (before you say something: the EU is good for most of the worlds export, I think it was about 19% or so) and China surpassing them. Their isn't a next hegemon in sight though. This is also an argument I found to be very interesting: certain political scholars (forgot the name of the school though) have argued that the USA is the current hegemon since there is nobody to replace them. As there is no contender to assert the position of undisputed leader, the USA drags on. However, this doesn't take away the fact they lack adquate power to be e real hegemon again.

[Erik]

lol sure. one thing about getting loans from other countries like china, is that we really arent forced to repay them. were making their money work for our economy, as they say in the business OTM( other peoples money). unlike a regular business loan, the chinese can't just call up and say we want our money, because that would crash the american economy and likewise destroy the chinese economy which depends so heavily on ours. remember all those wartime loans that the US dismissed via lend lease and the marshal plan? yea thats what were talking about.

I'm not talking about repaying the debt.
I'm talking about not being able to get new loans because you've simply reached your credit limit.

[Gelgoog]

I'm not talking about repaying the debt.
I'm talking about not being able to get new loans because you've simply reached your credit limit.

there again they will give out loans because its in their interest to keep up trade

[Gwendylyn]

Faith is not going to do anything to prevent "another major attack on our soil" or "another civil war". I could as easily say that I have faith that we will find a cure for cancer and that rainbows will drop skittles, but wishing won't make something any event more viable than the next.

Now, if you are asking if we think any of those events will happen, then it's an entirely different thing.

[Gelgoog]

when oil runs out in the rest of the world, you'll all be singing a different tune to a nation sitting on 250 years of coal and the majority of the worlds food supply

[gaius valerius]

The latter is quite relative I suppose. Once oil runs dry, the USA won't be able to use its magnificent army one bit

[Gelgoog]

The latter is quite relative I suppose. Once oil runs dry, the USA won't be able to use its magnificent army one bit

uh coal= oil

[MyNameIsGreat]

People are so obsessed with America collapsing. I guess human nature just loves to see great things fall. Apparently an economic depression and a "tough" (a laughable term when put into perspective) war spell doom for a country.

[gaius valerius]

Depends. If by fall you mean utter collapse you're dearly mistaken our point. I think we're implying that the USA should start to realise its real place in global perspective. Right now they might still be going on about their business like a global policemen, but it is increasingly hard for them to keep that up. The future in that aspect won't bring them solace.

[gambit]

America wont turn into the next Roman Empire because there isn't hordes of unwashed barbarians in Canada waiting to invade...at least I hope not. And on the other side we got a fence .

America won't fall anytime soon. At most I think we'd just slip from the scene and all the interesting stuff would happen in Europe. Big powers over there wouldn't bother to come over to America to start any ****. After all, would you cross the street when you could just beat up the guy next door?

[Ma'ahes]

I'm not worried at all about America's future...at least, not compared to the rest of the world. I mean, peak oil and global warming affects the entire planet, so that's not much of a benchmark. However, I see light at the end of the credit crunch tunnel.

First off, it isn't nearly as bad as what Japan has had. As long as the Fed keeps its wits about it and doesn't raise the rate drop the rate, raise the rate, ad infinitum over the next few months then we're fine. The US economy is very stable, and has some of the best financial institutions around. Plus, if anyone was watching the hedge funds in the lead-up to the credit crunch (I'm talking months to a year), they were under-performing and spreading themselves out too thin. It was inevitable.

Now for the US economy. I get some solace in understanding that the euro and pound are unnaturally high compared to the dollar. Oh well...that only stymies the European continent and straps the rich European countries with the bill for paying their neighbor's debt (i.e., see Germany taking industries away from Spain). US exports are rising quick, and the steel industry is booming thanks to China's fast growth and hunger for infrastructure. Plus, the biofuel craze will, for better or for worse, roll in larger profits for the heartland of the US. And to top it all off, we do have some of the best colleges and universities in the world--I have no doubt we can solve the problems that plague both our country and the world.

Am I optimistic? You can say that, but I'm also being realistic. America doesn't face hordes of barbarians waiting to collapse America--quite the contrary. People are flooding to the United States to share in the dream, or at least the hopes of a decent job and cash. We have been hit hard over the last decade, but this is but a drop in the bucket compared to what America has been tested with before. And to those who somehow want the US to fall from grace, know this: you'll sink too.

Damn, that was gratifying.

[Каие]

This is mostly meant for Americans, I mean at the rate were going with the world, do you believe that America can survive?

I'm pro-America all the way but at this point it's starting to worry even me. I see it as were the Next Roman Empire/Roman Republic.

I see it like the French Empire, the coalition of the brave will bring you down.