Blue-ray was controlling 93% (92.53%) of the HD movie sales market as of last week. The reasons for this are more than one.
Recent events have contributed to a greater interest rise in B-R format and sales (in about 40%), this has contributed only in part for the current situation, however on the other hand, these recent market events have shifted interests more quickly than most had expected for HD-DVD movie sales have gone down 88% in a single week alone.
Will these numbers keep up, no one knows for now, and it's quite logical that HD-DVD sales will rise next week, however as warned by many analists, if the current sale numbers continues then the format conflict can be over more quickly than expected, in addition to those other recent market events.
Port Washington (NY) - Earlier this month, standalone Blu-ray players counted for 90% of the next-gen DVD hardware market, but analyst firm NPD says that consumers shouldn't read too much into that.
For the week ending January 12, Blu-ray players outsold HD DVD players by a margin of 9-to-1. That was just including standalone players, meaning the Playstation 3 is not skewing the results. The Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on was also not included.
However, "One week doesn't really mean a lot," said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis for NPD. That week in particular, there were numerous promotions for free Blu-ray players with the purchase of an HDTV. Big box retailers also discounted some players that week to their lowest advertised price to date.
"With promotions, it's very easy to manipulate a week's worth of sales," said Baker. "We cannot make judgments based on one week's worth of data."
In other words the number isn't a true reflection and you fell for it hook, line and sinker. Sorry I'm guessing your not the only one to.
Blu-Ray out sold HD-DVD 9-1 in the space of one week due to a reduction in price (it's to be expected look at Xbox 360 and PS3 sales when they were discounted last year) and doesn’t have 93% of the market as you claim.
I’ll be happy once one of these formats decides to bugger off for good but I know that won’t happen for at least another couple of years at the very least. Better yet I would love Terradisc which is to be launched immanently to sink both formats.
Last edited by Freddie; January 29, 2008 at 09:56 AM.
How I knew you would bring that up, apparently you don't like to know HD-DVD is going through a hard time recently (it's not Blue-ray that going great, it's HD-DVD that's going through some hard times).
And you can start off by removing the "misleading" word from your post and you can also remove the
In other words the number isn't a true reflection and you fell for it hook, line and sinker. Sorry I'm guessing your not the only one to.
, since apparently you don't even know the reason for this sudden sales shift, not to mention you entire post doesn't even cover any of my supposed flaws and adds on detail that doesn't contradict anything I've posted previously.
First of all, I said "HD video sales market", secondly, by saying that I am obviously excluding the PS3 players and add-on 360 players.
Third, I never said "total market shares", where did I say that.
Fourth, I said "this week", not an average monthly or Q average statistic.
If you don't like how things are going then there's no need to rub it on other people's face with inaccuracies.
And yes, all of the major journalist centers do agree with the notion that these recent sale numbers can reflect a rough short future for HD-DVD, it's not one source (which apparently says both the obvious and a partially irrevelant point of view) that changes this. This has a snowball effect, which in turn these very sales numbers are already a consequence of the initial snowball effect, and notice carefully that it wasn't B-R exponential increase but HD-DVD exponential decrease, something that some consider the first signs of investement unwillingness (investement in the broad sence), and expect to see other abrupt market events and rumours to quickly take place.
And one last logical statement. If you think that this week's statistics aren't going to be partially reflected during the following weeks then you're extremely wrong, this week can provide an estimate for future weeks (their sales this week are as of now aprox 65%-70%).
I have read that source you presented. They are one of the few sources which are discrediting (in another article) the short term future effects of these sales numbers shakes (sales numbers not in the sence of increase but in the sence decreasing numbers), but of course, you had to bring it in an attempt to disprove my argument.
And by the way, NPD has officially said that HD-DVD sales did go down, those were the main reasons of B-R sudden market increase, it was not a "miraculous" nor the meere B-R price decrease (without counting the console section), nor a supremacy of B-R, it was a decrease of HD-DVD sales, as reflected in my original post.
Regardless, the better metric for the success of a packaged media format is media sales and with two weeks at about 84 percent and almost no decent red titles in sight, we'd be surprised if Blu victory in that court didn't continue.
If you want to come up with something to contradic, then please don't gather detail that's irrelevant when in correlation with what I've previously posted (which was what your entire argument focussed about), also, read my posts and sources, because if you're criticising me (or taking advantage) of what you're read in the title of the thread, then it's obvious I can't write an entire paragraph in the tittle line, since my original post was both neutral and correct acccording to what NPD has said so far.
Last edited by numerosdecimus; January 29, 2008 at 12:41 PM.
How I knew you would bring that up, apparently you don't like to know HD-DVD is going through a hard time recently (it's not Blue-ray that going great, it's HD-DVD that's going through some hard times).
How would you know I would bring this up? Because you know its the truth?
And you can start off by removing the "misleading"
:hmmm:.........no.
And one last logical statement. If you think that this week's statistics aren't going to be partially reflected during the following weeks then you're extremely wrong, this week can provide an estimate for future weeks (their sales this week are as of now aprox 65%-70%).
So your own statistics show a predict fall in the following week from about 90% to 65%. Ok, so what were the numbers the month prior to last? For all I know 65% could be the general trend. Stats are meaningless unless you have something to compare it to.
If you want to come up with something to contradic, then please don't gather detail that's irrelevant when in correlation with what I've previously posted (which was what your entire argument focussed about), also, read my posts and sources, because if you're criticising me (or taking advantage) of what you're read in the title of the thread, then it's obvious I can't write an entire paragraph in the tittle line, since my original post was both neutral and correct acccording to what NPD has said so far.
How can the material I posted not be relevant? They say the number is skewed because of the reason they gave. The 9-1 ratio is an oddity, a blip i.e. not a general sales trend, I haven't argued that Blu-Ray isn't winning I care that you implied that I did.
Frankly I find this a non story, and judging by the lack of activity in this thread I think you'll find a lot of other people feel the same way I do.
How would you know I would bring this up? Because you know its the truth?
The truth of what, that I brought up a source that says "HD-DVD sales have gone down 88%, being that the reason B-R has this week achieved a 93% sale share"?
Tt's not a matter that you are inventing things, it's a matter that your source is incorrect.
:hmmm:.........no.
Yes.
So your own statistics show a predict fall in the following week from about 90% to 65%. Ok, so what were the numbers the month prior to last? For all I know 65% could be the general trend. Stats are meaningless unless you have something to compare it to.
Prediction and estimates concerning a growing number from the B-R market share, which most analists agree with.
The numbers and events of last month lead in part (or better yet, contributed) to this decrease of HD-DVD sales this week, I ask you what you think is reason behind a sudden decrease of HD-DVD sales this week (especially after Warner declarations), certainly it's not meere coincidence, would it be then it's extremely unlikely. I ask you also if the recent market events should be ignored as to reach the almost obvious estimate that these recent market events alone have contributed to a much greater risk of future return of investement when dealing with HD-DVD, the very same reason why HD-DVD shares have decreased abruptly this last week and this will still be felt in future.
By the way, B-R numbers during the end 2007/christmas were around in the high 50%-almost 60%, now they are between 65%-70% this next, and you don't think last week has made it's effect in this week and possibly weeks to come? There's been a "solid" increase in B-R market share from 7% to 10% before last week and this week, and you think it's neglectible?
How can the material I posted not be relevant? They say the number is skewed because of the reason they gave. The 9-1 ratio is an oddity, a blip i.e. not a general sales trend, I haven't argued that Blu-Ray isn't winning I care that you implied that I did.
It is irrelevant because it has nothing to do, nor against what I mentioned concerning the HD video sales market, nor goes against the reason I mention of why B-R sales reached 93% this week, nor does anything that I wrote in my original argument goes again what you source says.
Secondly, you source says B-R reached a 9 to 1 proportionality but it says it's due to price decreases and promotions, this has already been pointed out to have been inaccurate, because the main reason behind it was a an exponential decrease in HD-DVD sales, which came from recent market events. This event was not a coincidence nor a meere improbability but a consequence of recent market events, something expected (but not this much to be honest, but what happened, happened), note that this decrease occured a week after Warner's declarations. If you believe this doesn't have an effects in customer views, much less in overhaul market view, then you're extremely wrong. What happened this last week was a reaction to recent market events, and, like I had mentioned in my original post and I quote, "and it's quite logical that HD-DVD sales will rise next week" clearly reflects that such a sharp decrease will most likely only remain this week, albeit of two things:
1: This decrease is a reaction to recent market events, and was expect to a certain degree, it is an obvious sign that the HD-DVD is facing serious problems concerning the prospects of long term investement in their format.
2: This decrease, although only being abrupt for this week, will inevitably affect market shares after it. The events occured during this week can be seen by many in the industry as further signs of weakness from the HD-DVD, as if the current absolute market share of B-R isn't discouraging enough for HD-DVD, any other market events such as this are completely expected reactions. The decrease was for the most part this week because it was a decreaes from HD-DVD, not an increase from B-R, had it been the former then the probabilities of seeing a great and more stable sales rise this week and the next weeks would have been much more likely.
Frankly I find this a non story, and judging by the lack of activity in this thread I think you'll find a lot of other people feel the same way I do.
Fine, ignore a solid market rise of aproximately 7% in just two weeks (7% in two weeks is alot concerning movie sales, without counting amazon), we'll then see the results this has in the end, not to mention this only helps in creating a greater snowball effect, and as a consequence of the already existing snowball effect that has mainly began since Q4 2007.
Last edited by numerosdecimus; January 29, 2008 at 04:07 PM.
How I knew you would bring that up, apparently you don't like to know HD-DVD is going through a hard time recently (it's not Blue-ray that going great, it's HD-DVD that's going through some hard times).
You're using one week worth of sales to comment on a multi-billion dollar industry. HD-DVD might be going through a hard time, but that doesn't change the fact that you think it's acceptable to justify speculation on the matter with one week's sales.
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
And you can start off by removing the "misleading" word from your post and you can also remove the , since apparently you don't even know the reason for this sudden sales shift, not to mention you entire post doesn't even cover any of my supposed flaws and adds on detail that doesn't contradict anything I've posted previously.
Don't be so bloody belligerent. He's right, you are very clearly misleading people with your original post. You did not, for example, inform us on the myriad of constraints and technicalities that you're falling back on now. Nor did you make us aware of the various promotions that are on.
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
First of all, I said "HD video sales market", secondly, by saying that I am obviously excluding the PS3 players and add-on 360 players.
"DVD sales market" as opposed to "DVD player sales market".
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
Third, I never said "total market shares", where did I say that.
It was implied. 93% of the market, you said.
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
Fourth, I said "this week", not an average monthly or Q average statistic.
No, you didn't.
Originally Posted by You
Blue-ray is now controlling 93% (92.53%) of the HD movie sales market
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
If you don't like how things are going then there's no need to rub it on other people's face with inaccuracies.
Stop getting your knickers in a twist and explain the inaccuracies that you're on about. As far as I can see, all you've done is introduce lots of "Well, what I meant was...", which is the same as "Well, my original post was wrong. A more correct post would be...".
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
And yes, all of the major journalist centers do agree with the notion that these recent sale numbers can reflect a rough short future for HD-DVD, it's not one source (which apparently says both the obvious and an untruthfull point of view) that changes this. This has a snowball effect, which in turn these very sales numbers are already a consequence of the initial snowball effect, and notice carefully that it wasn't B-R exponential increase but HD-DVD exponential decrease, something that some consider the first signs of investement unwillingness (investement in the broad sence), and expect to see other abrupt market events and rumours to quickly take place.
Big-time investment houses haven't played their hand yet. If, as you say, the stock exchanges are shaky, it's almost certainly speculators and nobodies that are trying to make a quick buck. They're not stupid; they didn't chuck away a multi-billion dollar market in a week because Blu-Ray sold more DVD players than they did.
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
And one last logical statement. If you think that this week's statistics aren't going to be partially reflected during the following weeks then you're extremely wrong, this week can provide an estimate for future weeks (their sales this week are as of now aprox 65%-70%).
Nobody said that. There's a difference between being logical and being correct.
P1: Blu-ray sold n players this week. P2: Blu-ray will keep up this trend for the coming weeks. P3: HD-DVD will have no impact on Blu-ray sales C1: Blu-ray will keep up the trend and sell f(n) players over the coming weeks.
I'll give you three guesses as to which premises are wrong or incomplete.
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
I have read that source you presented. They are one of the few sources which are discrediting the short term future effects of these sales numbers shakes (sales numbers not in the sence of increase but in the sence decreasing numbers), but of course, you had to bring it in an attempt to disprove my argument.
This is an appeal to authority as far as your blind faith in the Media goes; you're not refuting any of his claims. You're defaulting to "Well, the media is the media they must be right".
Argumentum ad populum, because you're saying: "Well, everyone else believes it, you should do."
Finally, ignoratio elenchi, because whatever it is that you think you're proving, it sure as hell isn't that Blu-ray owns 93% of the HD movie market.
And yes, I know I've probably committed ****tonnes of fallacies here, but I'm not denying it.
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
And by the way, NPD has officially said that HD-DVD sales did go down, those were the main reasons of B-R sudden market increase, it was not a "miraculous" nor the meere B-R price decrease (without counting the console section), nor a supremacy of B-R, it was a decrease of HD-DVD sales, as reflected in my original post.
Can you produce a coherent cross price elasticity of demand graph or something to back this up and actually articulate your idea?
Click the rest of the links and you'll see that they're not nearly as fanatical and sensationalist as you are. In fact, they get to a much more rational and intelligent conclusion.
Last edited by Erich von Manstein; January 29, 2008 at 07:15 PM.
You're using one week worth of sales to comment on a multi-billion dollar industry. HD-DVD might be going through a hard time, but that doesn't change the fact that you think it's acceptable to justify speculation on the matter with one week's sales.
He's right, you are very clearly misleading people with your original post. You did not, for example, inform us on the myriad of constraints and technicalities that you're falling back on now. Nor did you make us aware of the various promotions that are on.
"DVD sales market" as opposed to "DVD player sales market".
It was implied. 93% of the market, you said.
No, you didn't.
Explain the inaccuracies that you're on about. As far as I can see, all you've done is introduce lots of "Well, what I meant was...", which is the same as "Well, my original post was wrong. A more correct post would be...".
Have you taken Economics 101?
Big-time investment houses haven't played their hand yet. If, as you say, the stock exchanges are shaky, it's almost certainly speculators and nobodies that are trying to make a quick buck. They're not stupid; they didn't chuck away a multi-billion dollar market in a week because Blu-Ray sold more DVD players than they did.
Nobody said that. There's a difference between being logical and being correct.
P1: Blu-ray sold n players this week. P2: Blu-ray will keep up this trend for the coming weeks. P3: HD-DVD will have no impact on Blu-ray sales C1: Blu-ray will keep up the trend and sell f(n) players over the coming weeks.
I'll give you three guesses as to which premises are wrong or incomplete.
This is an appeal to authority as far as your blind faith in the Media goes; you're not refuting any of his claims. You're defaulting to "Well, the media is the media they must be right".
Argumentum ad populum, because you're saying: "Well, everyone else believes it, you should do."
Finally, ignoratio elenchi, because whatever it is that you think you're proving, it sure as hell isn't that Blu-ray owns 93% of the HD movie market.
And yes, I know I've probably committed ****tonnes of fallacies here, but I'm not denying it.
Can you produce a coherent cross price elasticity of demand graph or something to back this up and actually articulate your idea?
Click the rest of the links and you'll see that they're not nearly as fanatical and sensationalist as you are. In fact, they get to a much more rational and intelligent conclusion.
I only have one advice for you: Read my original post and actually come up with something to conterargue it instead of blindly attacking any logic you can find in my posts for your's certainly hasn't brought anything that supports your view.
Just like I have said to Freddie, I suggest you carefully read my post, there's nothing on it that contradicts my sources. If you don't like what you read, tought luck then.
"DVD sales market" as opposed to "DVD player sales market".
Note carefully on what I wrote:
Blue-ray was controlling 93% (92.53%) of the HD movie sales market as of last week. The reasons for this are more than one.
And
Will these numbers keep up, no one knows for now, and it's quite logical that HD-DVD sales will rise next week
I don't like you. You're unnecessary hostile, disrespectful and downright rude.
Oh pity me.
One thing I find amusing is that you restart your logics by completely ignoring any statements and evidences that I have showed previously, such as:
Don't be so bloody belligerent. He's right, you are very clearly misleading people with your original post. You did not, for example, inform us on the myriad of constraints and technicalities that you're falling back on now. Nor did you make us aware of the various promotions that are on.
To which I initially responded:
Recent events have contributed to a greater interest rise in B-R format and sales (in about 40%), this has contributed only in part for the current situation, however on the other hand, these recent market events have shifted interests more quickly than most had expected for HD-DVD movie sales have gone down 88% in a single week alone.
This post of course refers to the week in which HD-DVD sales were down by 88% which was the major factor in creating this gap, and not B-R, as opposed by Freddies statements of that the main issues here were promotions, price reductions, etc, etc (the factors he has mentioned aren't enough to create such a quick and large gap).
Once again your logic focusses solely on Freddie's statement and ignores mines. What a great way to counter argue, bravo, at this point you can claim you're right on everything since whatever I will post/have posted is going to be ignored.
Last edited by Erich von Manstein; January 29, 2008 at 07:13 PM.
Re: Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
What is true, is that HD-DVD only is supported by 40 % of the movie company's and it will not last. Bluray will win probably as things are now. Plus Bluray has more movies out on the market.
"And the Heavens Shall Tremble" Resistance is futile™
Re: Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
Originally Posted by Cyrus the Virus
What is true, is that HD-DVD only is supported by 40 % of the movie company's and it will not last. Bluray will win probably as things are now. Plus Bluray has more movies out on the market.
That B-R will win as the format of choice already is almost inevitable, it is something that at this stage is accepted by the great majority of analists.
By the way CtV, it's actually 25% to 30%, because with New Line Cinema and Warner's declaration of B-R exclusive titles, B-R now controls from 70% to 75% of the total share of the movie market (add that with Blockbusters choice of B-R).
Re: Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
That B-R will win as the format of choice already is almost inevitable, it is something that at this stage is accepted by the great majority of analists.
By the way CtV, it's actually 25% to 30%, because with New Line Cinema and Warner's declaration of B-R exclusive titles, B-R now controls from 70% to 75% of the total share of the movie market (add that with Blockbusters choice of B-R).
Right. Some company's have already switched side. Recently.
"And the Heavens Shall Tremble" Resistance is futile™
Re: Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
Dudes. We're talking about DVD sales here. Let's tone it down a bit, shall we?
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Re: Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
I agree with LordEdmundBlackadder, you didn't inform us about the various causes that were causing these odd results and since then you have tried to convince everyone (in vein) that’s all due to a decrease in HD-DVD sales. Misleading is the right word.
Last edited by Brian1980; February 10, 2010 at 03:35 AM.
Re: Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
Originally Posted by Brian1980
I agree with Freddie and LordEdmundBlackadder, you didn't inform us about the various causes that were causing these odd results and since then you have tried to convince everyone (in vein) that’s all due to a decrease in HD-DVD sales. Misleading is the right word.
My argument ever since the beginning was that it was a decrease in HD-DVD sales (which it was the main reason behind this sudden decrease). Had it never been that way then the number wouldn't have remotely changed that much the last week.
HD-DVD sales two weeks ago: 14,558
HD-DVD sales the last week: 1,758
Am I lying? READ my original argument. This shows it was a sudden decrase that changed those number the last week, the very same thing I've been saying ever since the beginning.
EngadgetHD says sales went from 15000 to aprox 22000 (rough number), however, it stresses once again that it wasn't this number the main factor that created this huge weekly gap between format movie player sales.
This accounts roughly for the 30%-40% rise I mentioned in my original article:
Recent events have contributed to a greater interest rise in B-R format and sales (in about 40%)
Re: Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
I don’t think your going to those specific numbers, I couldn’t. The point follows on though from Freddie’s post; for arguments sake lets say the entire HD player market has sold 100,000 players per week (made up of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD) for the last month. Before last week the split was about 6-4 in favour of Blu-Ray, however Sony drops the price and resellers offer discounts to boost sales causing the 9-1 split.
Now if what your saying is true then the market would have still sold roughly 100,000 units but 90,000 of those would have been Blu-Ray whilst only 10,000 are HD-DVD. Are Sony increasing the pie or just chewing up more of an already small pie?
Re: Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
Now if what your saying is true then the market would have still sold roughly 100,000 units but 90,000 of those would have been Blu-Ray whilst only 10,000 are HD-DVD.
Bingo, that's what I was explaining.
However, it was only last week.
This week, as expected, the number of HD-DVD movie player sales have risen to near the usual levels, 65%-70% B-R and 25%-30% HD-DVD.
But take note that even after this temporary sales decrease and the expected recovery from HD-DVD, the sales numbers this week (we'll wait to see the numbers next week) do show a slight increase of B-R when in comparison with the total cake.
It's that such a sharp and abrupt decrease, will have it's effects on future weeks.
Are Sony increasing the pie or just chewing up more of an already small pie?
More or less both, but, for the great part it's mostly the "chewing up more of an already small pie".
Last edited by numerosdecimus; January 30, 2008 at 10:32 AM.
Blue-ray owns 93% of the HD movie sales market.
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Originally Posted by numerosdecimus
