Report: 'World at peak oil output'

[Siblesz]

Report: 'World at peak oil output'

LONDON, England (CNN) -- The world has reached the point of maximum oil output and production levels will halve by 2030 -- a situation that will eventually lead to war and disaster, a report claims.

The German-based Energy Watch Group released a report Tuesday saying the world's oil production peaked in 2006 and from now on will drop by around 3 percent a year. It says that by as early as 2030, the global availability of oil will be half of what it was at its peak.

"It's a very serious result," said Hans-Josef Fell, a German lawmaker from the environmentalist Green Party who commissioned the report. "I fear the world will come into a big economic crisis in the coming years."

The report warns that coal, uranium, and other key fossil fuels are also in declining supply. It predicts the fall in fossil fuel production will bring with it the threat of war, humanitarian disaster, and general social unrest.

But Leo Drollas, who leads oil and gas market analysis and forecasting at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, said there are plenty of supplies and no looming crisis. He said the report sounds like "scaremongering."

Drollas says production could still slow one day, but only because new reserves will be considered too difficult or expensive to extract.

"Oil could be left in the ground and we could move on to another fuel in the future, not because we're running out of oil but because, economically speaking, it is not worth extracting the oil," Drollas said.

The debate comes as oil prices have hovered at record level. Wednesday morning, NYMEX crude was listed at $84.96 a barrel; oil prices topped $90 a barrel last week.

Analysts do agree, however, that oil prices could continue to rise, especially if there is further instability in the Middle East.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS...ef=mpstoryview


It's sad how little reported or understood it is that peak oil is indeed a veritable threat to the infrastructure of nations around the world. I think we're beginning the transition. It's only a matter of time before the media aknowledges the fact, and the sooner it does, the faster we'll be able to reform. But if we delude ourselves that it's not coming, we're not going to be prepared. People denied for decades that global warming is real, but here we are... the planet's heat up and the oceans are rising.

There's been very little collaboration and reform to cut energy consumption within and between nations until very recently. But some governments are reacting. Australia's government quite recently recognized the fact, and so did New Zealand. The both are passing energy bills. Countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are all on a concensus to drop energy consumption. Hu Jintao, in the 17th National Congress, pledged to cut consumption and the government has begun a fast reform for renewables and conservation. Let's see if Japan and China can adjust, and more importantly, let's see if the World can adjust.

[JP226]

There's been very little collaboration and reform to cut energy consumption within and between nations until very recently. But some governments are reacting. Australia's government quite recently recognized the fact, and so did New Zealand. The both are passing energy bills. Countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are all on a concensus to drop energy consumption. Hu Jintao, in the 17th National Congress, pledged to cut consumption and the government has begun a fast reform for renewables and conservation. Let's see if Japan and China can adjust, and more importantly, let's see if the World can adjust.

Thank god, the governments are going to save the day...

[Shaun]

Thank god, the governments are going to save the day...

Better than on one saving the day, now ...

[Kiki52]

What about the USA, Britain, and Israel?

I don't think the USA will make it though because this is the land of puritanism and the frontier. America will never go down the route of enviornmentalism because that is against what America is all about. That's what makes it hard. Maybe the Hopi prophecies might come true, but I don't think simply stopping oil usage will do us good. We need a change is spirit, but that won't happen most likely as we will try to bring our own Biblical apocalypse.

[Siblesz]

What about the USA, Britain, and Israel?

I don't think the USA will make it though because this is the land of puritanism and the frontier. America will never go down the route of enviornmentalism because that is against what America is all about. That's what makes it hard. Maybe the Hopi prophecies might come true, but I don't think simply stopping oil usage will do us good. We need a change is spirit, but that won't happen most likely as we will try to bring our own Biblical apocalypse.

America will reform when it suffers.

[danzig]

What about the USA, Britain, and Israel?

I don't think the USA will make it though because this is the land of puritanism and the frontier. America will never go down the route of enviornmentalism because that is against what America is all about. That's what makes it hard. Maybe the Hopi prophecies might come true, but I don't think simply stopping oil usage will do us good. We need a change is spirit, but that won't happen most likely as we will try to bring our own Biblical apocalypse.

What the hell nonsense is this? The US will adapt because it will HAVE to adapt the question is when and whether it will be in time to make it a smooth transition from one energy to the other or not. Sorry but it is dillusional to think Americans have some biblical apocalypse fetish going on....really wish people would stop with this constant nonsense that somehow Americans are drastically different then any other people on the planet.

[Siblesz]

What the hell nonsense is this? The US will adapt because it will HAVE to adapt the question is when and whether it will be in time to make it a smooth transition from one energy to the other or not. Sorry but it is dillusional to think Americans have some biblical apocalypse fetish going on....really wish people would stop with this constant nonsense that somehow Americans are drastically different then any other people on the planet.

They're not... other countries don't want to reform as well. But America, consuming 1/4th of the world's energy, is the main guy that needs reform.

[danzig]

They're not... other countries don't want to reform as well. But America, consuming 1/4th of the world's energy, is the main guy that needs reform.

No denying that, its common sense we use more hence we are more vulnerable. China however is at huge risk given where its at on the economic scale and its need to keep growing.

[Duke_of_Bavaria]

What about the USA, Britain, and Israel?

USA.. ok big oil consumers.
Britain... Same

Israel... I hope you were being sarcastic (thinking about the recent topics in the mudpit). Israel matters as much as Sweden, in other words it doesn't matter at all. Too small, too few people.

[JP226]

better than on one saving the day? Is this english your speaking? Better then on one person saving the day or maybe company? One government? And what does one have to do with anything?

[Shaun]

It was a typo, JP. I meant "no-one". It would not have been too hard for you to realise what I meant, surely, JP.

[Siblesz]

It was a typo, JP. I meant "no-one". It would not have been too hard for you to realise what I meant, surely, JP.

Had a hard time understanding myself.

No denying that, its common sense we use more hence we are more vulnerable. China however is at huge risk given where its at on the economic scale and its need to keep growing.

Indeed. China is very, very vulnerable.

[Perkele]

Yeah, right. These warnings have gone on for decades now, what they ALWAYS forgot that we haven't even found all the oil there supposedly is. Nor are we using all the oil we have found.

It's just BS.

[Siblesz]

Yeah, right. These warnings have gone on for decades now, what they ALWAYS forgot that we haven't even found all the oil there supposedly is. Nor are we using all the oil we have found.

It's just BS.

You don't know much about the subject. It's not a conspiracy. The threat is very real, geologists all over the world recognize the fact, and politicians around the world are beginning to recognize the fact. Even former energy secretaries of the U.S., Dick Cheney, and ex-oil company chiefs all admit the fact privately. Like Cheney's warning went in 1999,

“From the standpoint of the oil industry obviously - and I'll talk a little later on about gas - for over a hundred years we as an industry have had to deal with the pesky problem that once you find oil and pump it out of the ground you've got to turn around and find more or go out of business. Producing oil is obviously a self-depleting activity. Every year you've got to find and develop reserves equal to your output just to stand still, just to stay even. This is as true for companies as well in the broader economic sense it is for the world. A new merged company like Exxon-Mobil will have to secure over a billion and a half barrels of new oil equivalent reserves every year just to replace existing production. It's like making one hundred per cent interest; discovering another major field of some five hundred million barrels equivalent every four months or finding two Hibernias a year. For the world as a whole, oil companies are expected to keep finding and developing enough oil to offset our seventy one million plus barrel a day of oil depletion, but also to meet new demand. By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from? Governments and the national oil companies are obviously in control of about ninety per cent of the assets. Oil remains fundamentally a government business. While many regions of the world offer greet oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious for greeter access there, progress continues to be slow. ( Bold by the auther)”

The more the world denies the reality, the less prepared we will be.

ALWAYS forgot that we haven't even found all the oil there supposedly is.

We didn't discover it all, but we discovered the vast majority of it. And the fields that are easy and cheap to tap to, are all peaking.

[Caelius]

M'eh, the only people I see losing out from this will be the Mid East and OPEC, we've already done the whole "Peak Oil doesn't spell Ze DOOM of the world!" song and dance for a while now.

[Siblesz]

M'eh, the only people I see losing out from this will be the Mid East and OPEC, we've already done the whole "Peak Oil doesn't spell Ze DOOM of the world!" song and dance for a while now.

Actually, the countries that will be the most affected will be those that are energy intensive and oil importers, which means America, Europe, India, Japan, Korea, Australia, and China. Oil export countries will be very, very prosperous, as long as they can sustain production and ensure stability. If there are military interventions to control supply lines, however, only God knows what will happen.

[Caelius]

Actually, the countries that will be the most affected will be those that are energy intensive and oil importers, which means America, Europe, India, Japan, Korea, Australia, and China. Oil export countries will be very, very prosperous, as long as they can sustain production and ensure stability. If there are military interventions to occupy supply lines, however, only God knows what will happen.

Uh...Peak Oil implies that the OPEC countires de facto won't be able to sustain production or stability, Sibs. As for the developed world, as i've already said, we've been over the subject of alternative energy sources.

Peak Oil, whenever it comes or if it's already been reached, will not spell some huge upheaval in global order. All the efforts that are made to exaggerate it as such are pretty much on par with the Y2K fiasco.

[danzig]

Actually, the countries that will be the most affected will be those that are energy intensive and oil importers, which means America, Europe, India, Japan, Korea, Australia, and China. Oil export countries will be very, very prosperous, as long as they can sustain production and ensure stability. If there are military interventions to control supply lines, however, only God knows what will happen.

No he has a point, the west and parts of asia do have the capability if it develops the will power to if not solve atleast lessen the impact this will have countries however who's entire economy counts on oil revenunes would be completely screwed. What would Saudis or Iranians do or even Venzuala basically the first to "run out" or atleast get hit by a sharp decline in production is royally screwed with the rest to follow. It is for the most part all they have so if that is gone their entire economy goes up in a puff of smoke. Our (the west, japan etc) economy going up in a cloud of smoke will be more of a result of our failure to do anything meaning it is basically in our hands something oil rich countries clearly do not possess the same luxury.

Russia still has a lot of energy resources, but it will peak (or has already peaked).

I think numbers from Russia need to be taken with some measure of care, the russians arent well known for being exactly honest in these matters besides I wouldnt want to be in Russia's shoes. A declining population sitting on a still decent amount of oil with China on one side and Europe on the other...hell forget the missile shield Id rearm if I was Russia just for that

[Wild Bill Kelso]

If this were not the case, the oil companies would not be scrapping the bottom of the hydrocarbon barrel as it were, by developing the oil sands in Norther Alberta. Unfortunatly our near sighted government here doesn't realise that the profits the government recieves from oil revenue now are far exceeded by the environmental damage wrought on my provinces northern forests. Standing at the edge of a 300-400ft deep pit that extends nearly 5 miles across is something to behold! And this is only the beginning of the development here in Alberta...

[Panzerbear]

pffft... who cares? there is more than enough oil in the world to last for another 200 years. I hope by then the technologies will be beyond anything that might require the stupid oil.