Experimental evidence
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Measurement of excess heat
An infrared picture of hot spots on the cathode of a cold fusion cell. Presented by Szpak at ICCF10[10]The cold fusion researchers presenting their review document to the 2004 DoE panel on cold fusion said that the possibility of calorimetric errors has been carefully considered, studied, tested and ultimately rejected. They explained that, in 1989, Fleischmann and Pons used an open cell from which energy was lost in a variety of ways: the differential equation used to determine excess energy was awkward and subject to misunderstanding, and the method had an error of 1% or better. Recognizing these issues, SRI International and other research teams used a flow calorimeter around closed cells: the governing equations became trivial, and the method had an error of 0.5% or better. Over 50 experiments conducted by SRI International showed excess power well above the accuracy of measurement. Arata and Zhang observed excess heat power averaging 80 watts over 12 days. The researchers also said that the amount of energy reported in some of the experiments appeared to be too great compared to the small mass of the material in the cell for it to be stored by any chemical process. Their control experiments using light water never showed excess heat.[11] While Storms says that light water is an impurity that can kill the effect,[12] Miley and others have reported low energy nuclear reactions with light water.[13]
When asked about the evidence for power that cannot be attributed to an ordinary chemical or solid state source, the 2004 DoE panel was evenly split. Many of the reviewers noted that poor experiment design, documentation, background control and other similar issues hampered the understanding and interpretation of the results presented to the DoE panel. The reviewers who did not find the production of excess power convincing said that excess power in the short term is not the same as net energy production over the entire time of an experiment, that all possible chemical and solid state causes of excess heat had not been investigated and eliminated as an explanation, that the magnitude of the effect had not increased after over a decade of work, and that production over a period of time is a few percent of the external power applied and hence calibration and systematic effects could account for the purported effect.
Other purported evidence of heat generation not reviewed by the DoE included the detection of infrared hot spots (see picture in the lead section), the detection of mini-explosions by a piezoelectric substrate, and the observation of discrete sites exhibiting molten-like features that require substantial energy expenditure.[14][15]
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Nuclear products
A CR-39 detector showing possible nuclear activity in cold fusion experiments at SSC San Diego.[16]For a nuclear reaction to be proposed as the source of energy, it is necessary to show that the amount of energy is related to the amount of nuclear products. When asked about evidence of low energy nuclear reactions, twelve of the eighteen members of the 2004 DoE panel did not feel that there was any conclusive evidence, five found the evidence "somewhat convincing" and one was entirely convinced.
If the excess heat were generated by the hot fusion of two deuterium atoms, the most probable outcome, according to current theory, would be the generation of either tritium and a proton, or a 3He and a neutron. The level of protons, tritium, neutrons and 3He actually observed in the Fleischmann-Pons experiment had been higher than current theory predicted, but well below the level expected in view of the heat generated, implying that these reactions cannot explain it.
If the excess heat were generated by the hot fusion of two deuterium atoms into Helium, a reaction which is normally extremely rare, 4He and gamma rays would be generated. Miles et al. reported that 4He was indeed generated in quantities consistent with the excess heat, but no studies have shown levels of gamma rays consistent with the excess heat.[17] Current nuclear theory cannot explain these results. Researchers are puzzled that some experiments produced heat without 4He.[18] Critics note that great care must be used to prevent contamination by helium naturally present in atmospheric air.[19]
Although there appears to be evidence of anomalous transmutations and isotope shifts near the cathode surface in some experiments, cold fusion researchers generally consider that these anomalies are not the ash associated with the primary excess heat effect.[20]
In 2006, nuclear activity was demonstrated by the use of standard nuclear track detectors made of CR-39. Photographs show scarring of the plastic disks, consistent with high energy nuclear radiation. The intensity and pattern of the scarring appears to rule out anomalous sources such as background radiation as the cause.[2][21][22] A project has been set up to facilitate its independent replication.[23]
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Reproducibility of the result
The cold fusion researchers presenting their review document to the 2004 DoE panel on cold fusion said that the observation of excess heat has been reproduced, that it can be reproduced at will under the proper conditions, and that many of the reasons for failure to reproduce it have been discovered. Despite the assertions of these researchers, most reviewers stated that the effects are not repeatable.
In 1989, the DoE panel said: "Even a single short but valid cold fusion period would be revolutionary. As a result, it is difficult convincingly to resolve all cold fusion claims since, for example, any good experiment that fails to find cold fusion can be discounted as merely not working for unknown reasons."[24] While repeatability is critical for commercial applications, independent reproduction is the criterion used in the scientific method.
Cold fusion supporter Julian Schwinger said that it is not uncommon to have difficulty in reproducing a new phenomenon that involves ill-understood macroscopic control of a microscopic mechanism. As examples, he gave the onset of microchip studies, and the discovery of high-temperature superconductivity.[25]