Probability of success

[Amaris]

I'd like to annotate that the probability of success of assassinations and such things is definitively not correct.

I tried an assassination with a rate of 66 % and it failed 8 times in a row.
I also tried one with a rate of 30% and it failed 20 times ore more (I stopped counting) in a row (I saved the game before the attempt).

Therefore this probability rate can't be correct.
66% means that ~ 2/3 of all attempt are a success. Of course it is possible that the assassin fails 100 times in 100 attempts, but this is very improbable.
I study physics and you have also a lot to do with statistics there - therefore I know what I'm talking about.

The probability of failing 8 times in a row with a 66% success rate can be calculated and is 0,014 % !

Therefore 66% can't be correct.


Greetings,
Amaris


Sorry for mistakes in grammar and orthography - english isn't my native language.

[Taimee Rose]

You've got to move your assassin, if you try to kill a target, fail, reload and try again without ordering your assassin to move away from it's position it'll fail again and again and again. Move your assassin one tile forwards before trying to kill the target.

[Spurius]

Do you reload the savegame and retry, or use another assassin with the same percentage chance?

If the first, it could well be an anti-cheat measure, so you can reload until you see blue in the face. Must try this.

[Evolution]

same happens to me when i try to denounce witches and heretics. I just get Fed up in the end.

The big guy upstairs must like them

[Lost Crusader]

The seed that generates random number responsible for determining outcome of an attempt is also saved when you save the game. So you can try as long as you like, the outcome will always be the same.

But I think you can reset the seed by performing action with some other agent, but I'm not certain about it.

[Amaris]

The seed that generates random number responsible for determining outcome of an attempt is also saved when you save the game. So you can try as long as you like, the outcome will always be the same.

I see....but then the number 66% isn't really a rate of probability - at least not in a mathematical sense (like when you roll a dice).
I thought it was and therefore is seems that this was a misunderstanding between Creative Assembly and me

Move your assassin one tile forwards before trying to kill the target.

Okay, I'll try that.
I simply reloaded again and again. I tried two assasins with different rates (66% and a lower one). Both failed in every attempt.
But when it's true what Lost Crusader has said, than that's no more a mystery.

[Lost Crusader]

I see....but then the number 66% isn't really a rate of probability - at least not in a mathematical sense (like when you roll a dice).

Yes, it is. Rate of success determines the outcome, but there's always some randomness involved.
And since computers are not capable to produce true random numbers, they generate so called pseudorandom numbers, which depend on a seed. For each seed, computer will always generate the same sequence of numbers (in this case, only one number I guess).

Try reloading the game, assassinate someone with some other assassin, or spy on someone (to reset the seed), and then try to assassinate with your 66% assasisn. Maybe this won't work from the first attempt, 66% is not very high probability after all...

[GoldenElite0]

The seed that generates random number responsible for determining outcome of an attempt is also saved when you save the game. So you can try as long as you like, the outcome will always be the same.

But I think you can reset the seed by performing action with some other agent, but I'm not certain about it.

Yes this is correct. I remember discovering that even after reloading a save several times, the same outcome in a naval battle would occur in which I won. However the next turn the outcome was diffrent and I lost, but reloading kept the same result over and over.