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  1. Re: Machiavello TW (mid XV Century Italy) - original thread

    Great mod here,

    I would like to know if you're planning to implement in some way the differences between the Scuola Braccesca and Scuola Sforzesca. Say, for example, as a trait that generals can...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    Look, Germany is a currency manipulator. Even US treasury says it.
    The only reason Germany exports as much as it does now is because of the Euro being severly undervalued (again, not me saying it,...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    ECB measures were (and are) without alternative if you want the Eurozone to survive.

    Personally, I think Germany is trying to cause a collapse right now because, although it would be a disaster...
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    Re: Russia gearing up for invasion of Ukraine?

    Are you seriously denying that Crimea is now under control of the Russian Federation? Like it or not, it is part of it, and like it or not, international politics is anarchy, de facto situations are...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    There's smell indeed. I wonder if they'll find a way to make the rest of the continent pay or not this time.
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    UP.

    After reading the stress tests:

    1) the choice of the threats was weird, no sign of negative rates and deflation
    2) German banks are the worse off in the adverse scenarios for 2017-2018.
    ...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    It's also clear that the reasons are political because te rules on deficits are applied ridiculously arbitrarily. Not that they would make sense in general...



    However, I'm amazed by the fact...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    The IMF admitted mistakes last years. This years they admitted that they deliberately caused the depression in Greece and the crisis in the other countries they went in for political reasons. They...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    Stress tests on italian banks coming out today.

    Meanwhile, Generali (Europe's third insurance group and Italy's first) wants to sink money in Atlante 2, the fund that our government prepared to...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    Banking union... it's politically impossible to complete it as Germany opposes it.

    I'm sure, however, that DB will be nationalised. That is, if there's no big crush, in which case, DB's...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    I agree, negative interest rates are a huge problem.
    If nothing changes I foresee negative interest rates on deposits and/or a tax on wealth on bank accounts.

    Low interest rates are destroying...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    I think that there are two parallel trends in the banking sector now:

    1) technology, especially internet banking, made branches and lot of employees unnecessary.

    2) world economic outlook is...
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    Re: The (Second) European Banking Crisis

    In that case though there is a trial going on if I'm not mistaken and it looks like bondholders are going to win it. I might be confused with the similar case that happened in the Netherlands though....
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    1) What you said doesn't make any sense economically speaking with all due respect. You don't know how national accounting works. Imports are not paid "with income from the financial markets",...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    I think we have to recap a bit what's happening to put things in perspective:
    1) UK is in political chaos, but that doesn't really matter as the stock market is going very well (thanks pound...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Yes, it happened to Italy in 2011, when the whole spread thing started and people started to say that the country was close to default. Then one watches the EU commission reports from the same period...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    I hope you realize that that act of stripping the triple A has no economic reasons and it's just a political act to influence the brits.

    It makes economically no sense to say that the UK has a...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Nope, is the share of GDP made by Financial services. :)


    Edit:"It Is Not The EU Philosophy That The Crowd Can Decide Its Fate"This sentence was pronounced by the president of the European...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    It is, but the net exposure is unkown. I mean, banks usually "hedge", they bet on both results of an operation through inversely correlated titles. Of course you can't have 0 risk as you would have 0...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    What counts is the net position though. We have no idea about that. But I agree with you that it would be hardly manageable.
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    @caratacus

    We're finally at the end of the Euro crisis. And, like in 1992, the odds now are that the end will come from UK and Italy quitting the system. European Monetary system crisis again, but...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Guys, it seems that all the banks had their derivative positions on bremain... it means that there is a serious risk that one big bank in europe might go down (DB, Commerzbank are the two most...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    We'll see I guess. Though I fear you're right and nothing will happen... which means the inevitable collapse of the EU will be not collaborative and will probably make us all lose also the common...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    The fact is:

    1) Inside the EU you didn't have the possibility of freely determine your fiscal policy (for various reasons), outside you theorethically can, but with the tories in charge hardly...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3WJpRbBN7fQ/V2QxhodRyjI/AAAAAAAAFNw/gP1O_LxMwF8s2Ex9teZZA7qAyIhlEME7QCLcB/s1600/BR_02.JPG

    Considering the UK has a strong educational system and plenty of engineers and...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    That's very interesting Dante.
    I still hope you come out of this mess orderly, but at this stage it looks too chaotic. The thing is, the damage is done now, the EU can't accept you in again because...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Interesting, although it's a slightly different situation.
    The thing is: how can you say that the national interest is different from what came out of the referendum? (I'm not saying you're wrong,...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Ok.
    I'm also skeptic about all the negative economic consequences. But that's only my opinion as economist...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    You mean N. Ireland?

    It would crumble because it would be a precedent. If the parliament can ignore this, it can ignore anything else. I'm not a jurist though, but I studied enough constitutional...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Isn't there the problem that the whole constitutional law of the UK is based on non binding rules and acts, and that it means that every act is binding? Wouldn't ignore the referendum make everything...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Of course, but some people take those surveys as gold, while we just came out of a week of completely wrong surveys that amplified the crash of friday by creating false expectations.

    Also, those...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    This. 1000 times this.
    I'm amazed by the fact that people have no ability to distinguish between surveys and actual data. And more amazed by the fact people forgot that ballots are secret.

    It...
  33. Re: Discussion on Greek political, financial issues + new elections

    I stand corrected than :) but still, it's a cultural trap.
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Well quoted Pielstick! Also, 75% of 43% (the percentage of young people that supposedly voted to stay compared to the percentage of young people that voted) is not the majority by any mean. It...
  35. Re: Discussion on Greek political, financial issues + new elections

    Ludicus, you're a clever guy, don't fall in the "other Europe" trap. It's politically impossible and, most importantly, it's a cultural trap of the left. The right has luckily surpassed it because...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    It's not the intent. A vote is too important and surrounded by too many interests to allow much discretionality. Rules are strictly applied. Starting from the kind of pencil you can use and the fact...
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    Poll: Re: The British EU Referendum: In or Out

    Hello,

    Having personally spoken with Lord Skidelsky about this a month ago, I would like to know, just out of curiosity, how many share his somewhat old-imperial britain view on Bremain:...
  38. Thread: Invasion of Libya?

    by RNV
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    Re: Invasion of Libya?

    Yes, but Italy has its interests in Tripolitania and will probably never agree on an intervention only in Cyrenaica (we have not enough forces to do both).

    That's the reason I think the...
  39. Thread: Invasion of Libya?

    by RNV
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    Re: Invasion of Libya?

    I tend to agree. If an invasion occurs (and I think that if the new government manages to get into Tripoli it eventually will), it will be less than 10'000 men, maybe half of it, just to protect oil...
  40. Thread: Invasion of Libya?

    by RNV
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    Re: Invasion of Libya?

    Ok, thank you. It was weird not to find other reports on that, this explains. :thumbsup2
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