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  1. Replies
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Although I said that before Putin suddenly reversed course and pushed through the annexations. Still, if needs must he can probably unmake such a thing as easily as he made it; I doubt many Russians...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I suppose that's the tricky part.

    It's pretty clear that the results of the 2014 referendum were heavily rigged (to say nothing of more recent ones). The question is whether or not a 'free and...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Elon Musk recently got pilloried on Twitter for this. I think he goofed on the details, since a more practical argument would have focused on Crimea and the issues of a) the demographics (which have...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I think that bringing up the Kosovo case in relation to Putin's current actions is stretching an analogy far past the breaking point. The cases of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria all have at...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I think the implication is more that a nuclear attack on Ukraine would trigger a (conventional) American intervention against Russian forces in the region, then Putin could claim 'defeat' by the US...
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    Re: The Rings of Power. Lord of the Rings. TV Show.

    Other than by the fact that they are mortal and the Elves are not, which is what irritated them.
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    Re: The Rings of Power. Lord of the Rings. TV Show.

    It does seem to me that Tolkien has a different moral logic than most modern speculative fiction writers. The Numenoreans are depicted as being inherently in the wrong for defiance of divine will...
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    Re: The Rings of Power. Lord of the Rings. TV Show.

    That seems like a very bizarre misrepresentation of the Numenoreans' grudge against the elves, which as I understand it (but my knowledge of Tolkien is extremely limited) is basically anger at the...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Except that also means that losing it has a far bigger impact.
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The most obvious cause for defection would be if they weren't being paid. Also, if a lot of unwilling draftees are gathered near the capital, then any riot could quickly grow dangerous (since now...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Disgruntled protestors or rioters mainly.
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Unfortunately, the point in largely moot. There are two groups Putin needs to keep control over to hold onto power; the military and the security services (FSB and National Guard). As long as they...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    You do understand how mutually assured destruction works, yes?
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Another probable reason is a lack of significant viable targets. Forces along the front are spread out and mobile; there aren't any tightly-concentrated groups.

    The reaction to the mobilization...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The only problem is how? Full mobilization would add the problem of disrupting the delicately maintained appearance of normalcy in Moscow that Putin needs to preserve in order to prevent rioting....
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    You joke, but that's actually not unheard of. Two examples would be the American Civil War (where both the Union and Confederacy suffered many times the small pre-war US Army numbers in casualties)...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Probably because a mass conscripted army would likely mutiny almost immediately. Given the lackluster supply of volunteers for the military, it doesn't seem likely that the general public has any...
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    Re: House of the Dragon

    There's a point about that, though. From what I can tell of the lore, the situation pre-Conquest seems oddly static. Other than the Riverlands (which changed hands several times), most of the borders...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Actually, I don't think Putin cares that much. He's set things up so he can abandon pretty much all of Ukraine without issue. Consider that the plans for annexation have been repeatedly delayed or...
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    Re: House of the Dragon

    Unless you count the multiple civil wars over succession (the Faith Militant rebellion, the Dance of the Dragons, the Blackfyre rebellions etc.)
    Technically inter-kingdom conflicts before Aegon's...
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    Re: Long Live the King

    IIRC constitutionally the monarch is the Head of State, but the only one permitted to use that authority is the Governor-General; the monarch can't do anything except through the GG.

    The biggest...
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    Re: House of the Dragon

    I'm not really sure how Westeros falling apart is a nihilistic outcome; it basically just means a return to the state of affairs before Aegon's Conquest.

    There are two elements of Westerosi...
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    Re: House of the Dragon

    Personally, I've always believed it would have made more sense if Westeros had broken apart at the end of GoT. The capital is destroyed, all the heirs to the Iron Throne with any clout are dead...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    To be fair, such sentiments are generally rather impotent. Russia's ethnic situation is very different to that of the USSR; ethnic Russians make up ~80% of the population and the majority of the...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Of course, while destroying the bridges interferes with Russian resupply, it also will leave the Ukrainians with a difficult task crossing the river if/when they retake Kherson. In other words, the...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Why did they bother with it in the first place though? Again, if they'd abandoned it earlier and fortified on the left bank (especially if they blew up all the bridges), it would be far more...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It seems like the Ukrainians have enjoyed some successes in pushing towards Kherson. I'm still not sure why the Russians have bothered trying to hold it though; it would presumably be far easier to...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    That's a bit premature; the Ukrainians would first have to retake Kherson and push across the Dniepr before being able to move on Crimea.

    If they do manage to do so successfully, it will be...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Iodine isn't a general preventative measure against radiation; it's only used to 'fill up' the thyroid gland with non-radioactive iodine in order to prevent the accumulation of iodine-131. Since...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    You don't really need to bother. Here's a prediction of a likely dispersal if an incident occurs: https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1560370933566771201

    It looks menacing... until you look...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Currently, it isn't even clear that the Ukrainians can launch a ground assault anyway (they haven't even retaken Kherson yet, so such expectations seem premature). However, the problem is how the...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    So the Ukrainians hit a Russian base in Crimea (probably). Don't know what the Russians will do, if anything.

    Although a lot of the commentary from pro-Ukrainian Westerners seems to suggest that...
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    Sticky: Re: [Feedback] Questions, Critiques and Requests

    What's the reason behind the 'Seleucid vassals revolt' event? There's no historical basis for it and it makes the Seleucids ahistorically weak. Also Parsa should probably just be owned by the...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Kind of annoying that the first map doesn't show effects over the entire USSR, which would be rather useful.
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It also affected the Kazakh SSR though, and the assertion that the affected areas of the RSFSR were majority Ukrainian isn't accurate as far as I'm aware.
  36. Re: Taiwan is an Independent Country - called the Republic of China

    There's been some suggestions raised about the notion of China planning a Pearl Harbour-style 'knockout' blow against US forces in the West Pacific:...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It would probably be more accurate to say that US policy regarding Ukrainian NATO membership has been a 'worst of both worlds' situation; non-committal promises that have been sufficient to cause...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    To be fair, stated Russian goals change every other week, so who knows?
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    Fixing the FotS AI

    Are there any mods that block AI clans randomly switching allegiance and attacking the player for no reason (or at least makes it so that they lose their alliances with clans of their old allegiance...
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    Poll: Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    That's no more true of the Soviets than of the British or Americans.
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