Israel elections April 2019, September 2019, March 2020, March 2021.

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Originally Posted by sumskilz

Israel has no constitution...court’s jurisdiction itself is unclear.

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Thanks, sumskilz. One more question, if I may.
Britain does not have a codified constitution.In the UK, legitimate extent of judicial authority is always a complex, difficult question. In the UK, Lord Kerr said he understood why legal challenges irritated governments.In his opinion, the UK needs judges to limit government power. That said, is there a reason for Netanyahu's call for legislation to limit judicial authority?

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Originally Posted by Ludicus

That said, is there a reason for Netanyahu's call for legislation to limit judicial authority?

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It's a popular idea with his constituents because the court is often seen as activist leftist judges overruling a rightwing coalition elected by the majority. In other words, the court can be framed as antidemocratic. Although, they no doubt see themselves as a bulwark against a tyranny of the majority. It's pretty obvious however, that Netanyahu's primary concern is more personal:

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Ever since Israel passed a controversial nation-state law last year that critics say undermines the country’s commitment to equality for all its citizens, Supreme Court justices have been preparing for the possibility of striking down Basic Law amendments such as the ones now being considered by the incoming government.

Referring to the nation-state law, outgoing Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked called the possibility of an overturn by the Supreme Court a “governmental earthquake” and the opening shot of a “war between the branches of government.”

The reform proposals have not yet been formally published, but have been widely reported on in the media. They include several elements that could benefit Netanyahu, who is facing indictment, pending a hearing, for fraud and breach of trust in three criminal cases, and bribery in one of them.

The first proposal is a change in the current immunity law that would require an indictment of a lawmaker to be approved by the Knesset’s House Committee.

The second is a change that would prevent the High Court of Justice from striking down a decision of the House Committee, thus maintaining Netanyahu’s immunity. This would be achieved by amending the judiciary Basic Law, which authorizes the High Court of Justice to exercise judicial oversight of administrative rulings of the state’s governing branches.

The third is an “override” clause that, among other powers, would enable the Knesset to stop the High Court of Justice from striking down the immunity law.

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With Netanyahu now facing more opponents on the right, this has all become less likely, but a man can dream.

Meanwhile it has been too long since a new party was created, but have no fear, Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon has got your back! Introducing.. Telem presumeably?
That's right, the Telem part of Yesh-Atid-Telem (which is just Ya'alon at this point as the others already left), is splitting off. Ya'alon was number 2 in the party and is a former minister of defence back when he was part of Netanyahu's Likud. Personally I think he is unlikely to get many votes, but maybe his internal polls tell him otherwise.

EDIT: Now I'm sure some of you are thinking "Man, I sure wish that there was yet another party created for the upcoming Israeli election!" and to you I say fear not, for Bezalel Smotrich has got your back! That's right, baby, yet another new party! And a sectarian one at that! Better yet: There's already a party representing this sector!
Well, not so much a new party, but rather a split. You see, Yamina is a merger of two parties: Tkuma and.. well, Yamina. Or so it was, because now Tkuma is running independently, seeking to represent the religious-Zionists. Who are already represented by Jewish home. And arguably by Yamina itself. It's fine, don't worry about it.
A first poll since these two parties formed (or announced the intention to form) came out, and Tkuma actually has enough votes to get into parliament according to it, while surprisingly it isn't Yamina that takes the hit, it's Netanyahu's Likud. Telem meanwhile does not have enough votes. Good one Ya'alon.
The projection is as follows (note that 4 seats is the minimum, lower than that you get 0):
Likud - 27 (centre-right - Netanyahu)
Saar wars episode IV: A New Hope - 17 (credit to Sumskilz for the amazing pun) (right - anti-Netanyahu)
Yamina - 14 (right - ambiguous on Netanyahu)
Yesh Atid - 13 (centre - anti-Netanyahu)
Joint List - 10 (mix - anti every other party, will not join coalitions)
Shas - 8 (Haredi - pro-Netanyahu)
United Torah Judaism - 7 (Haredi - pro-Netanyahu)
Israel Beitenu - 7 (right - anti-Netanyahu, anti-Haredi)
Israelis - 5 (left - anti-Netanyahu)
Tkuma - 4 (right - unclear on Netanyahu)
Blue and White - 4 (centre? - anti-Netanyahu)
Meretz - 4 (left - anti-Netanyahu)

Good luck forming a stable coalition from this mess.

Today Saar's new hope has received another new defector from Likud: Beni Begin, son Menachem Begin, who was one of the founders of Likud and the first Likud PM. Beni himself also served as minister and used to be close to Netanyahu, who previously had reserved him a spot higher in the list (#11), until he decided not to vote in favour of a law.

Meanwhile a small, but important, primary election was held in the tiny Jewish Home party after their leader had previously resigned. The competition was between a Bennet loyalist who wanted to merge with Yamina on the one hand, and a Smotrich loyalist wanting to merge with the newly split Tkuma on the other hand. With some help from Netanyahu the Smotrich loyalist won and the party will now all likelihood merge with Tkuma. So why is this important? Simple: Tkuma in the polls has bee either just over or just below the minimum vote threshold, adding the Jewish Home voters to their base will do much to secure their position. Why is this important for Netanyahu? Because Smotrich will most probably join his coalition (if he can form one). Also if this merger raises Tkuma by 1 seat then Netanyahu suddenly has a path to a 61 seat coalition, something that could be potentially achieved by merging the party with the far-right Otzma Yehudit, something Netanyahu had already done last election before getting outmanoeuvred by Yamina's Bennet who managed to cancel the merger. This time, however, Bennet has no influence over Smotrich.

Meawhile panic begins to brew in the anti-Netanyahu coalition. Several polls have now shown Israelis not getting enough votes to pass the minimum, putting Tel-Aviv mayor Huldai at a tough spot where he might just quit the race and continue to be mayor, a post from which he has yet to resign. Telem meanwhile is not even close to passing in any poll, but their leader, Ya'alon, promises to not waste any votes and to act responsibly, and if need be merge with a larger party, such as Yesh-Atid.. the party from which he split.
Gantz's position in the polls seems to have stabilised at around 4-5 seats (I remind that below you do not get any at all), but issues have arisen in Labour. Labour's leader, Amir Peretz, known for this: https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...xVzfA&usqp=CAU and for shaving his famous moustache in an ad in order to say "Now you can read my lips: I will not join Netanyahu's coalition!" right before joining Netanyahu's coalition, had previously announced his resignation in order to pursue a run for president.. after getting the party to agree to not hold primaries. Instead Peretz had decided that the party should be led by an outsider and an election should be held for leader of the party between people who are not from it, with Shelah being one proposed name (though Shelah's party, Tnufa, is at the very bottom of the polls). This however resulted in Peretz being sued by his fellow Labour member Merav Michaeli, known for her misuse of gender in the Hebrew language, in order to allow primaries. Michaeli won the suit, and the appeal that followed, blocking Labour from a potential merger and leaving it in turmoil. Though of course the merger could still happen depending on who wins the primary. Either way, Labour is sitting on below 1% in the polls.


All in all, Netanyahu's chances have improved dramatically compared to a month ago, as the anti-Netanyahu camp fragmented itself so much so that many of them are below the minimum, though of course this could be fixed by what is likely the fast approaching next stage in this election: Mergers.

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Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2

Telem meanwhile is not even close to passing in any poll, but their leader, Ya'alon, promises to not waste any votes and to act responsibly, and if need be merge with a larger party, such as Yesh-Atid.. the party from which he split.

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A bold move.

The deadline for submitting party lists, which is on the 4th of February, is fast approaching. After this date no more mergers or splits are possible, meaning that the next few days are crucial and may just determine the outcome of this election, especially with so many parties at risk of not passing the minimum threshold. If the Anti-Netanyahu block wants a win some of its members have to merge.
All that aside, we have 2 new parties as the Arab Joint List collapsed with 2 of its parties leaving. The joint list has not been faring well in polls and was predicted to go from 15 to 11 or 10 seats, so naturally the solution is to split that into 3 and ensure that at least one of those parties won't get enough votes.
Meanwhile the New Economic Party for the first time got enough votes to pass in a poll, Labour seems to be consistently passing now that they've had their primaries, and Tel-Aviv mayor's "Israelis" is consistently not passing, with the latest poll giving it 0.6%. How the turn tables.

The deadline draws closer and we have our first casualty: Telem's leader, Ya'alon, announced that the party will not be participating in this election. Big oof. It seems that, shockingly, no one wanted to merge with Ya'alon, who in his brilliance had just split from Yesh Atid where he was number 2 in the list. Suffice to say the gamble did not pay off.
Another minor casualty is number 2 in the party "Israelis", Avi Nissenkorn, who announced that he is taking a break from politics. He previously had left Gantz's Blue&White where he served as minister of Justice for fear of the party not passing the minimum vote threshold, but now Israeli's is below the minimum while Blue&White is holding steady at 4-5 seats. Womp womp.

Two of the new parties formed in December have just dropped out, specifically that's the so-called Israelis and the ironically named Tnufa, which means "momentum".

The lists have finalised, the parties submitted, and we have our competitors. Honestly, I was expecting more mergers, but there were only 2: The Religious Zionist Party (split off from Yamina earlier) merged with the far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish power), which before that had merged with the anti-lgbt Noam. This was done under pressure from Netanyahu who was afraid of both parties not passing the minimum and wasting valuable votes, as Netanyahu has no path to a coalition without them. From his point of view this HAD to happen. Otzma was given places 3 and 6, and according to at least 1 poll that showed the union getting 5 seats it seems that Otzma is going to enter parliament, and maybe even the ruling coalition. Oh dear.

In the meantime the Joint list, which as I mentioned fell apart, managed to somewhat piece itself back together: Hadash, Ta'al and Balad will still be part of it, however Ra'am will run separately.
Now, for the casualties: As I mentioned in an earlier post Telem had quit, but now several others have as well:
Tnufa, under Omer Shelah (who had left Yesh Atid to form his own party) announced it won't run in the election after failed merger talks with Labour's new leader: Merav Michaeli, who is mostly known for misusing gender in the Hebrew language.
Israelis, led by Tel-Aviv mayor Ron Huldai, also made a similar announcement after also having given up on talks with Labour. Good thing the mayor never resigned.
Jewish home - this one was a surprise. I was fully expecting them to merge with the Religious Zionist party following the victory in the primary by Smotrich ally Hagit Moshe, who was also supported by Netanyahu over her pro-Bennet opponent. This was seen as a win for Netanyahu and a loss for Yamina. However talks failed and Naftali Bennet seized the initiative and promised Moshe a position as minister if Yamina joins a coalition, which she accepted.
Gesher was less surprising. Having managed to lose any semblance of popularity she had the party leader, Orly Levy-Abaksis, was instead added to the Likud party.
Another interesting addition to the Likud party by Netanyahu was an Arab Muslim school principal. He was placed in rank 39 however, and with the party getting around 30 seats in polls, is highly unlikely to get into parliament. Regardless this is part of Netanyahu's new strategy of trying to gain votes from the Arab population.

Its interesting to follow this at a distance, democracy forces compromise and while the chip trading seems grubby, I think of it like the bad smell that comes when you're brewing beer: the result tastes like freedom.

Threads like this are good fodder when I'm talking to friends and family that want to bash my ear about how bad Israel is. Its handing having a pinch of facts on hand to throw into the pot.

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Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2

Another interesting addition to the Likud party by Netanyahu was an Arab Muslim school principal. He was placed in rank 39 however, and with the party getting around 30 seats in polls, is highly unlikely to get into parliament. Regardless this is part of Netanyahu's new strategy of trying to gain votes from the Arab population.

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This strategy has already been a success in my opinion. If Ra'am makes it past the threshold, then they may support Netanyahu, but in the more likely case that they don't make it, the Joint List has been gimped, and those extra seats will be distributed among the other parties, making it easier for Netanyahu's coalition to get to the 61 needed. At rank 39, Nael Zoabi isn't making it into the Knesset, but this is a good move:

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Speaking with Zoabi at his official residence in Jerusalem, Netanyahu said Zoabi would be appointed as the minister in charge of advancing Arab society in Israel. “I am proud that Nael Zoabi, a respected educator who has dedicated his life to advancing Arab society, has joined the Likud,” Netanyahu said...

Netanyahu called on Arab citizens to cast their ballots for Likud, instead of the Joint List that split in two on Thursday.
“Arab citizens are sick of wasting their votes on parties in the opposition,” Netanyahu said. “Only the Likud can guarantee to improve their lives, and that is exactly what we will do.”

Zoabi thanked Netanyahu for the opportunity to run and for what he has done for the Arab sector.
“Israeli Arabs want to be part of the Israeli success, and that is why they’re coming to the ruling party, the Likud,” he said. “I promise to serve both Arab and Jewish citizens with all my might.”

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Using the classic maneuver of inventing a new ministry in order to give a political ally a job, he's able to make a place for Zoabi (not that Zoabi) in his prospective government without taking anything away from his Jewish allies. Although, if he wins and fails to make good on the promise, that would probably end his chances of making any further headway in gaining Arab support.

Netanyahu is a failure and must go. WIth Biden reversing most Trump policies and his trial of corruption continuing, an election win of Netanyuahu will offer nothing positive

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Originally Posted by Papay

Netanyahu is a failure and must go.

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I don't think that he's a failure at all. He's brought great success on foreign policy, economy, security and more. He's a masterful politician, which is part of why I don't support him as I can't trust him to keep his word, but a failure? no.

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WIth Biden reversing most Trump policies and his trial of corruption continuing, an election win of Netanyuahu will offer nothing positive

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Biden's policies won't change based on whether or not Netanyahu is in power. The people with the greatest chance of replacing Netanyahu are to the right of him and much less willing to compromise. Both Sa'ar and Bennet, who realistically have the best chance of forming a coalition, are avid supporters of the annexation of area c of Judea and Samaria and both oppose the two-state solution. As I've been saying the whole time, Netanyahu is moderate. When you look at what he does, not what he says, it's very clear. Biden would be better off with Netanyahu winning, rather than dealing with the far more hawkish Sa'ar or Bennet.


Meanwhile a poll has for the first time shown Meretz not getting enough votes to get into parliament. A sign of things to come? or a fluke?

Another "victory" for Netanyahu. The ICC will probe probable war crimes by Israel

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Biden's policies won't change based on whether or not Netanyahu is in power

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I agree. There is nothing to gain by being hands on in Israel. I can't see any percentage in not just doing more or less what just let Trumps decisions stand, restore aid to the Palestinians and try to behind the curtains keep annex of anything new off the front page. I mean really Biden can just leave the situation on cruise control - Iran and A-stan decisions are more important really.

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Originally Posted by Papay

Another "victory" for Netanyahu. The ICC will probe probable war crimes by Israel

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The little I know of this place is the results rarely match reality, and if someone is acquitted because they didn't do it there's a certain amount of surprise.

If you think he's a war criminal don't expect justice.

So no more elections right? Netamyahu is staying PM?

The ICC probe won't have any effect on the upcoming elections. The court has no legitimacy in the eyes of Israelis across the political spectrum. Politicians on the far left know the ICC has no serious case regarding Israeli action during the 2014 conflict, so they used the news as an opportunity to criticize the settlement policy, which there could actually be a ruling against. But politicians on Israel's far left are always criticizing the settlement policy, so this is nothing new. Politicians to the right of Netanyahu used it as an opportunity to criticize Netanyahu for not acting in what they see as Israel's interests out of fear of international condemnation. Their argument is that Netanyahu's "cowardice" serves no purpose since Israel will receive international condemnation regardless of what is done. Again, these are the same arguments, different day.

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Originally Posted by Vanoi

So no more elections right? Netamyahu is staying PM?

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No? Election is on the 23rd. Election 5 hasn't been announced yet though, so stay tuned!

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Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2

No? Election is on the 23rd. Election 5 hasn't been announced yet though, so stay tuned!

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My fault. Saw an article about a party failing to get into the Knesset but it was referring to election polls.

I'm only curious about who wins because of the rumors that Israel might launch an attack against Iran over the oil spill incident and the Israeli cargo ship being targeted. I figured they'd only do that once the election is over.

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Originally Posted by Vanoi

My fault. Saw an article about a party failing to get into the Knesset but it was referring to election polls.

I'm only curious about who wins because of the rumors that Israel might launch an attack against Iran over the oil spill incident and the Israeli cargo ship being targeted. I figured they'd only do that once the election is over.

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I think if anything it's more likely to be done before the election as a show of force by Netanyahu, whose party has been dropping in the polls.

As for not passing in polls, yeah, the two parties most at risk are Meretz (amusingly enough the winner of the poll on this thread) and Ra'am. If we take the last 4 polls both have failed to pass in two of them (one of those cases was both of them not passing). Labour, blue&white and the religious zionist parties are both close as well, with the former ranging from 4-6 seats and the latter 4-5 ( seats is the minimum).