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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Ukraine cannot take a big city with force. Perhaps they could take Kherson if Russians evacuated the area but unless they do that, they dont have the manpower to besiege and take slowly a bid city like that in the same way Russians did with Mariupol some months ago. So we might see minor changes here and there but no spectacular change, at least untill the spring of 2023. In the meantime the west must preserve the Kiev regime financially and militarily which, oddly, some people think is better than having your own economy and military.
Nobody walks into a urban fight unless thay have too. Maybe if its not your own city. Why should Ukraine break their own stuff and why engage in a brutal fight.
"So we might see minor changes here and there but no spectacular change, at least untill the spring of 2023"
You said before the advance in the south and east as well.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
Papay
Ukraine cannot take a big city with force. Perhaps they could take Kherson if Russians evacuated the area but unless they do that, they dont have the manpower to besiege and take slowly a bid city like that in the same way Russians did with Mariupol some months ago. So we might see minor changes here and there but no spectacular change, at least untill the spring of 2023. In the meantime the west must preserve the Kiev regime financially and militarily which, oddly, some people think is better than having your own economy and military.
It takes years, if not decades, to build an economy and a military.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
Septentrionalis
That's what Russia in its desperation reports and wants everyone to believe so that Ukraine would lose support.
That's also mimicked in western sources.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
Papay
Yes as I was saying earlier, we will have either forced Ukranian concessions or USA will need to get involved - which means boots on ground; as Ukranian army is no longer intact to go on the offensive and winning war.
I am guessing here USA is opting for the first option.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Yes as I was saying earlier, we will have either forced Ukranian concessions or USA will need to get involved - which means boots on ground; as Ukranian army is no longer intact to go on the offensive and winning war.
I am guessing here USA is opting for the first option.
Going to book mark this prognostication.
Its reasonably clear the weather has paused every one operations. I rather suspect nobody is going to move until hard freeze sets in. I dunno maybe you nave never worked on farm land and I might not know the Ukraine but damn if I get of the road in Iowa now and watch whatever vehicle I was driving sink into a farm field. Overcast with intermittent rain not freezing and high around 50 or so and not sunny enough to dry the soil out have fun with that - even marching accross
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
Papay
Ukraine cannot take a big city with force. Perhaps they could take Kherson if Russians evacuated the area but unless they do that, they dont have the manpower to besiege and take slowly a bid city like that in the same way Russians did with Mariupol some months ago. So we might see minor changes here and there but no spectacular change, at least untill the spring of 2023. In the meantime the west must preserve the Kiev regime financially and militarily which, oddly, some people think is better than having your own economy and military.
So far in this conflict only one major city got besieged which failed. That was Kharkiv by the Russians. Russia is leaving Kherson because they can't defend it. Once its secured we will likely see liberation Zaporizhzhia within a few months as well. As time progresses and Ukrainians get their land back piece by piece you guys will continue to draw the line further and further.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
sumskilz
That's right. The closest there has been is Putin saying "We will defend our land with all the powers and means at our disposal" after the annexations, which is being referred to as a "thinly veiled threat" by Western media outlets. Supposedly, the likes of Prigozhin and Kadyrov among others have argued on social media in favor of using tactical nukes, which has made for some clickbait headlines. This was the sort of talk I had in mind that, if anything, I take as evidence that use of tactical nukes aren't under consideration (not that I assume either of those guys are particularly in the know).
It doesn't seem very likely that the social media posts of a regional strongman or a paramilitary leader have much impact on the actions of the military general staff (especially since they haven't been shy about rather clear contempt for the Russian military senior officers, which I can only assume is reciprocated). It may be that they are trying to curry favour or else strengthen their own positions.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
PointOfViewGun
So far in this conflict only one major city got besieged which failed. That was Kharkiv by the Russians. Russia is leaving Kherson because they can't defend it. Once its secured we will likely see liberation Zaporizhzhia within a few months as well. As time progresses and Ukrainians get their land back piece by piece you guys will continue to draw the line further and further.
Fat chance
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
conon394
Nobody walks into a urban fight unless thay have too. Maybe if its not your own city. Why should Ukraine break their own stuff and why engage in a brutal fight.
That didn't stop them from doing that to cities of Donbass for the past 8 years.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
What intermittent shelling by both sides around static position on both sides is now the equivalent of a massive assault on a major city?
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
conon394
Going to book mark this prognostication.
Its reasonably clear the weather has paused every one operations. I rather suspect nobody is going to move until hard freeze sets in.
Ukraine is assaulting and probing parts of Kherson oblast every day, and Russia is attacking South of Ugledar. Your assumption is safe, but not consistent with facts on the ground.
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I dunno maybe you nave never worked on farm land and I might not know the Ukraine but damn if I get of the road in Iowa now and watch whatever vehicle I was driving sink into a farm field. Overcast with intermittent rain not freezing and high around 50 or so and not sunny enough to dry the soil out have fun with that - even marching accross
This is hard to treat as a fact, when we consider that Russia began this war in late February, arguably the worst possible weather.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
I've played a bit of Totaler Krieg and the rasputitsa in the game was April/May and September/October. I think we can trust Alan Emrich and Sal Vasta, two great Americans, on that.;)
That move in late Feb might make sense if one assumed the operation would meet weak resistance and Russian forces would be in place in that first week: the muddy spring slow down would theoretically hinder NATO/UN responses and favour occupying forces.
November historically is a month when operations resume after General Mud prepares to hand over to General Winter.
I wouldnt be surprused, given this war is more about long ramge munitions and not wide sweeping fronts, if advances still occur in the rasputitsa, along well sealed routes. Now I would guess its more or less over.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
Russians have exhausted the best parts of their army, and the majority of their best ground equipment. The biggest impediment to any Russian offensive is Russia's losses and manpower shortages, not the weather.
Weather matters, but it can be overcome. Thus, we should ask ourselves, is there anything pressing enough that would convince either Ukraine or Russia to conduct an offensive in unfavorable weather?
My answer in no, but I can contrive a number of reasons for why Ukraine's answer is yes.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
Love Mountain
Russians have exhausted the best parts of their army, and the majority of their best ground equipment. The biggest impediment to any Russian offensive is Russia's losses and manpower shortages, not the weather.
Weather matters, but it can be overcome. Thus, we should ask ourselves, is there anything pressing enough that would convince either Ukraine or Russia to conduct an offensive in unfavorable weather?
My answer in no, but I can contrive a number of reasons for why Ukraine's answer is yes.
I guess electoral pressure is more on Ukraine. If enough MTGs get into Congress I guess US funding could be cut on the whim of ghe TV clown and Ukraine would have to concede.
Has Orange Man stated open support for Putin recently? If so I guess Ukraine has a few weeks to grab what it can.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
Ukraine will keep fighting even if support is cut off. However, I think people still monumentally underestimate just how vital NATO support has been. I certainly underestimated its impact, and I'm not talking about Javelins.
To be honest, one could make the opposite vote. If the Republicans are likely to win the house and aid will be limited to what was already passed, wouldn't it make more sense to conserve as much equipment as possible?
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
Love Mountain
Ukraine will keep fighting even if support is cut off. However, I think people still monumentally underestimate just how vital NATO support has been. I certainly underestimated its impact, and I'm not talking about Javelins.
To be honest, one could make the opposite vote. If the Republicans are likely to win the house and aid will be limited to what was already passed, wouldn't it make more sense to conserve as much equipment as possible?
Yes you make a good point. Agree on the NATO support, i heard early on there were plenty of "observers" on the ground all but calling the guided munitions in. The reason the Russians have looked so bad is their front end (which was effective) got misused and walked into a prpared defence. They arent WWII Sovueys, more like WWI French losing their best 20% in the first week.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
I read that one of the central strategies by Russia is to force mass evacuations in inland Ukraine (including Kiev), as a result of destroyed critical (for civilians too) infrastructure such as electricity and water.
If the trend is for the republican party to return to power in 2024, any "rebuilding" of Ukraine will be in the usual style (US companies buying any sector that makes an important profit), but also possibly on a smaller scale.
While no one in Ukraine would want to give up (it'd make fighting this war pretty pointless), in the end they will have to give up at least some territories, such as all of Crimea.
Not happy at all either with how easy it has become for the usual oligarchs to blame everything on "russian influence". Still, polls on US voters show that by a very large margin the issue they care about is the economy, not this kind of "external enemy alert".
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
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Originally Posted by
Papay
Fat chance
You guys called it fat chance if Ukraine could survive the first week. You guys called it fat chance that a city like Kherson with major Russian presence would not simply switch sides to Russia. You guys called it fat chance if Ukraine could severely hurt the Russian Black sea fleet. You guys called it fat chance if Ukrainian aircraft could still fly. You guys called it fat chance if Ukrainian air defense could continue to down Russian aircraft and missiles. You guys called it fat chance if Ukraine could gain any territory back from Russia. Keep adding them up please.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
Shoigu has given the order to retreat from Kherson.
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Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-russia...tes/a-63699774
Why do they do this? They have already destroyed 70 % of the Ukranian army... Must be part of Putin's plan to destroy the remaining 30% of the ukrainian army...