Wagner group's rebellion

[alhoon]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion

In an effort to keep this separate from the Russian/Ukrainian war that goes on for the past 9 1/2 years, I would like to start a new thread specifically on the Rebellion.

The gist: After increasing tensions between Wagner and the military, at 23rd of June Wagner more or less started a march towards Moscow. Putin called the move treason - and he is right to call it that. People remain indoors in Moscow, uncertainty is high. The reason is that there are few forces between the Ukrainian border and Moscow as much of the army is bogged down in Ukraine. Wikipedia gives the self-reported Wagner group as 25,000. They are probably half that thanks to Ukraine, but they are battle-hardened. And the forces opposing them are, at least until the morning of 24th... 200 Chechens.


It is amazing to me that someone as paranoid as Putin didn't see that Prigozhin's escalations in the past few weeks could lead to a rebellion. The man is a mercenary not a patriot, that leads a force of brutal murderers and convicts.
Am I sorry for Putin for facing a rebellion? Not really. Will I be sorry if Wagner faces severe casualties thanks to that coup (the Russian commanders are not very forgiving; Even if Prigozhin is assassinated now, they will keep fighting Wagner). Not at all.

My main issue as I see two bad people fighting is that Russian civilians will now suffer more. My main concern is "who controls the nukes?". Another great concern is Russian exports of energy and foodstuff. The prices have already gone up when Putin started the invasion. This could cause them to baloon again.


BUT
This is a total war Forum. Aside of the political discussions I would like to know this:
Which Total War game do you think the rebellion is more close to?
Three Kingdoms with one of your generals defecting and grabbing land? R2TW/Attila with a general rebelling and taking part of the faction with him? M2TW with Wagner becoming a rebel force and not a faction? Empire Total War with the Aristocrats (the oligarchs) throwing a coup to replace the previous monarch? S2TW with a vassal Daimo suddenly going berserk?
The issue, total-war-wise is that Moscow is practically undefended! The garrison is very weak, especially for a city of that size. Putin should have built more garrison buildings there.
(No, I am not making light of the situation! I understand this is not a game and that is horrible for the people experiencing it).

[Alastor]

It's rather hard to separate this topic from the Russo-Ukrainian war and we are already talking about Wagner's mutiny there. Not sure this should be a separate topic as such.

[conon394]

Don't forget Putin theoretically had a forces for this eventuality the Rosgvardiya and the FSB special troops. But they got burned in the first year of the war when they were stung out doing occupation and Ukraine counter attacked.

It is amazing to me that someone as paranoid as Putin didn't see that Prigozhin's escalations in the past few weeks could lead to a rebellion.

Also Wagner is the face and manpower of Russian foreign operations (at least the hard edge) from Syria to Africa. Prigozhin had a lot more leverage than your average oligarch.

Its pretty clear he was happy about wasting his troops (which I assume he means the best grade of ex Russian contract soldiers) in the Ukraine war and getting cut off from the prisoner supply may well have been the first step toward today.

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@Alastor

well to be fair I thought the China discussions were relevant to the war as well they got the mod ruler out for knuckle smacking

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

As the spearhead of the Wagner convoy is reaching the disctrict of Moscow, we will see was will happen next.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-jun...reached-moscow

A coup of Putins Praetorians, the National Guard, to proclaim a new emperor?

[alhoon]

As the spearhead of the Wagner convoy is reaching the disctrict of Moscow, we will see was will happen next.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-jun...reached-moscow

A coup of Putins Praetorians, the National Guard, to proclaim a new emperor?

So for my "which game" question, you go for R2TW, I suppose?

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Sure, Putin has neglegt to balance the different parties influence properly and now we have a civil war...

[alhoon]

Sure, Putin has neglegt to balance the different parties influence properly and now we have a civil war...

This is exactly what happened.

[alhoon]

CNN reports that Wagner head says group standing down after claims of deal.

But even if Wagner stands down, I honestly doubt anyone in the command structure would ever trust Prigozhin again after he marched to 2 hours from Moscow.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Lukaschenko, the president of Belarus, has mediated an agreement between Putin and Prigozhin.

Wagner retreats to its bases and its fighters are getting security guarantees.

(source: german public TV broadcaster ZDF)

In my eyes an obvious sign that Putins power is crumbling. If you are strong, you don't need an agreement.

[Ludicus]

The mountain has given birth to a mouse and Prigozhin, from now on, has to increase his life insurance premium.

[alhoon]

The mountain has given birth to a mouse and Prigozhin, from now on, has to increase his life insurance premium.

Yes, but he won't be the last though. The weakness of Putin has been exposed in a shock. If Moscow is not safe from a group of 10,000-15,000 under-armed mercs, then other generals will start their own plans for deposing Putin.
Furthermore, Putin will have to focus on finding out who supported Prigozhin amidst his allies, further alienating and isolating himself.

It was a bad, bad day for Putin, even if Wagner respects the deal and retreats.
Or, it could be Prigozhin bluffing to make the Putin loyalists a bit less tense so he can attack again. Because I agree with you, there's no way Prigozhin is safe in Putin's Russia now.

[swabian]

Dang. Wow... something finally happened. A serious crack in the integrity of Russian facade.

As the spearhead of the Wagner convoy is reaching the disctrict of Moscow, we will see was will happen next.

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/24-jun...reached-moscow

A coup of Putins Praetorians, the National Guard, to proclaim a new emperor?

There have been articles popping up here and there speculating about Prigozhin's popularity, and while there is reason to believe his political influence is underestimated, I don't think the same can easily be said about his influence among Russian troops. The latter are confronted with a bunch of choices, some of which are really ugly and following Prigozhin to the end is likely one of them.

I think the most likely outcome of this rebellion (which it is undoubtedly after all) is that, if Ukraine is not using this moment of Russian weakness with brutal viciousness, It will simply end with Prigozhin in a body bag and his troupe dispersing to other mercenary companies and Ukraine not better off at all.

The guy might actually not simply overestimate his momentum, though. There is the possibility he actually fights for his survival (and that of his business of course) and doesn't see any other possibility than to head straight to Moscow and to sort things out with Shoigu and Putin. He might have the opportunity to flee the whole mess by helicopter and/or airplane, but he obviously doesn't choose to. He seeks to decide his fate in Russia, knowing he will likely be detained or killed.

A Russian civil war would be better than Putin'sexpansionsionism, of course, but that's not likely to happen without the majority of higher ranking Russian officers at the front following Prigozhin to whatever whacky idea floats his boat right now.


I loved how pissed off and shaky Putin looked in his speach, though.

[alhoon]

The Mercs are heading to their field camps around Moscow but whatever happens with Prigo, it has exposed Putin's weakness to a school of sharks. A group of 10-15K mercs have reached 2 hours from Moscow with nobody from a 1-million-strong army to oppose them.

As for Ukraine, Putin will have to divide his attention to find who were aiding Prigozhin and who would be the next general to march to Moscow. The morale of the Russian troops certainly took a blow and coordination will likely become a bigger problem.

[alhoon]

From what I hear, the deal is that all charges are dropped and Wagner will go to Bellarus.

[Ludicus]

Indeed. Prigozhin goes on holiday to the Belarusian Maldives, and Kadyrov goes to Bakhmut.

[swabian]

The Mercs are heading to their field camps around Moscow but whatever happens with Prigo, it has exposed Putin's weakness to a school of sharks. A group of 10-15K mercs have reached 2 hours from Moscow with nobody from a 1-million-strong army to oppose them.

As for Ukraine, Putin will have to divide his attention to find who were aiding Prigozhin and who would be the next general to march to Moscow. The morale of the Russian troops certainly took a blow and coordination will likely become a bigger problem.

Prigozhin runs to his likely death, no doubt. But, as despicable his person may have been, he is now incredibly useful propagandistically against Russia.

I wonder, if there is a possible involvement of Ukriane herself. Maybe he has been bought off to waltz to Moscow with some information only he has and can deliver?

What I find very interesting especially is how nobody really stands as a straight Putinist to stop Wagner. It is certain that fire opened against Russian troops within Russian borders would seal the lives of the mercenary heap, but we also have the announcememt of Putin himself who spelled nothing less than a death sentence against at least Prigozhin, or so it seems.

How can they even advance so quickly?

I think Putin surely hates and fears them, shouldn't they be whiped out already by a focused air strike?

I also noticed that Russian traffic is just flowing as usual while amidst them, an army is rolling that can't care less for local police opinion. Crazy.

[Ludicus]

. A group of 10-15K mercs have reached 2 hours from Moscow with nobody from a 1-million-strong army to oppose them.

Putin's prestige has taken a hit, there is no doubt about that.Given the circumstances, I think it was a wise decision. But he won't forget.

[swabian]

@Ludicus

I think it was a wise decision.

What? How?! This is pure chaos at best.

[Coughdrop addict]

Prigozhin is a blind fool if he expects Putin to honor any deal. At best he will be assassinated very soon, more likely he will be captured, tortured for months, then killed slowly.

[Lord Oda Nobunaga]

Well that was anti-climactic AND stupid.

Prigo is going to wake up one day with his head missing.