Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Mithradates]

Isn't Russia slowly taking over more areas in the eastern front? (south of Kharkov, the region which leads to Dnieper)
There are rumours of a plan (by Russia) to try a major offensive in the middle of summer.

It is worth mentioning that one of the main reason for these Russian gains is that the Russians copied the Western JDAM bombs and developed their own FAB-500 glide bomb. They are currently used to cause the most devastating attacks against Ukrainian defense lines and settlements near the front, the 500-, 1000- and 1500-kilogram winged bombs are released relatively safely 30-70 kilometers away from the front line by the Russian jets.
(A 1,500-kilogram winged bomb launched from a distance of 30 kilometers in case of a direct hit can destroy concrete bunkers up to ten meters deep, and it can destroy other ground targets within a 500-meter radius.)

There are two main ways to defend against such attacks. One option for the Ukrainians is to try to destroy the fighter jets already on the ground. Ukrainian drones are now able to reach targets 1,300 kilometers from the front, video recordings and satellite observations confirmed these successful attacks on Russian military airfields most heavily fortified with air defenses.

The other, more efficient option will be the F-16 fighter jets, these could solve the problem caused by Russian glide bombs by not letting the Russian fighter jets close enough to safely operate.
Analysts believe that the Russian military is trying to make progress at any cost until the appearance of the new Ukrainian fighter jet fleet (end of June).

After that, they will have to return to their "normal" fighting style.

On the scale of russian losses. A 15km² section of the frontline west of Avdiivka, 90 units of lost russian armoured vehicles just to advance 4km.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Ukraine's independence was protected by 5 different security guarantees, which Russia violated with the attack.
If we accept that Ukraine must lose territories, we will re-legitimize wars of conquest in Europe and we will make security guarantees meaningless.
Not gonna happen.

[Kyriakos]

There is imo nothing to accept or not to accept about something that can only happen. Russia is currently trying to break up enough parts of the eastern front that past those it will be open country and/or land which can't be as fortified (eg farmlands). Russia, anyway, is free to use (inside Ukraine) tactical/small/other euphemism or non-euphemism nukes if it actually ever risks losing without them.
Ukraine is simply the victim. It will be among the losers regardless. The question imo is which of the representatives of the major blocks will be humiliated.

[Kyriakos]

Preemptive attack, while often presented as self-defense, is generally the opposite (a giveaway is that it features the term attack in its name).
"Billions dead" can include the entire population of "the west", by the way - its around one billion, so a very small fraction of the planet's population.

[saamohod]

Preemptive attack, while often presented as self-defense, is generally the opposite (a giveaway is that it features the term attack in its name).

Exactly.
Just like the Russian excuses for their current war. To their audience they voice one of the propaganda lines that they had no other option but invade us.
What exactly were they "preempting" against varies widely, depending on the current circumstances. None of the explanations look anywhere near reasonable though, as you may have noticed in our other forum discussion where no Russian ever managed to convey a coherent explanation for the invasion and the ensuing murder and destruction they overwhelmingly support.

[Kyriakos]

^I agree with you entirely on that point.

[AqD]

Exactly.
Just like the Russian excuses for their current war. To their audience they voice one of the propaganda lines that they had no other option but invade us.

It does not matter.

We must win. Nothing is more important than victory and our continued supermacy on this planet.

[AqD]

There is imo nothing to accept or not to accept about something that can only happen. Russia is currently trying to break up enough parts of the eastern front that past those it will be open country and/or land which can't be as fortified (eg farmlands). Russia, anyway, is free to use (inside Ukraine) tactical/small/other euphemism or non-euphemism nukes if it actually ever risks losing without them.
Ukraine is simply the victim. It will be among the losers regardless. The question imo is which of the representatives of the major blocks will be humiliated.

So you just want to convince us that we are powerless and should not even try to revert the situation. How surprising!


You know what would help? Escalate. Strike the factories in Iran and destroy any ship from North Korea to Russia on international water, and Russian camps in Georgia and Transnistria.

What's the chance of nuclear threat for doing those? Zero, but our spineless governments would do nothing, just as they did watching Kim developing nukes from zero to 100 percent.

[Kyriakos]

Sounds too meek, imo. We should simply nuke Moscow, they wouldn't retaliate because they can't risk nuclear war.

[mishkin]

Sounds too meek, imo. We should simply nuke Moscow, they wouldn't retaliate because they can't risk nuclear war.

You know there are millions of innocents living in moscow right?

[Laser101]

Sounds too meek, imo. We should simply nuke Moscow, they wouldn't retaliate because they can't risk nuclear war.

Doesn't that argument run in reverse though?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

You know there are millions of innocents living in moscow right?

Mishkin, you really ​need to work on your ability to detect sarcasm.

[mishkin]

Mishkin, you really ​need to work on your ability to detect sarcasm.

I hope you are right

[nhytgbvfeco2]

I hope you are right

Kyriakos is pro-Russia. He's implying that AqD is being absurd

[Kyriakos]

Formal logic system nhyt got it, though the implication works without the specific trait.

[Alastor]

It appears that even Politico is now acknowledging that Ukraine is heading for defeat:
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-...ng-russia-war/

Welcome Politico to the land of plain obvious. In other earth-shattering for your journalists news... the sky is blue.

A question that arises now is how can this war be concluded? A few years back I could see a negotiated settlement that would leave Ukraine mostly intact, like the one that was being originally negotiated shortly after the Russians entered Ukraine. Had Zelensky settled then, Ukraine would have been spared much destruction and suffered smaller territorial losses. Now, I doubt the Russians would be willing to settle for that little. Not after all this effort and all the losses they suffered. So what would be enough now?

I don't have a clear endgame in mind now, I don't believe Russia would be interested in conquering Ukraine as a whole, but aside from the 4 oblasts (+ Crimea) they have formally annexed, do they have designs for further territory? If yes, how much? What would the cost be? What kind of resistance can Ukraine realistically offer at this stage with the west's ammunition and materiel largely depleted and their own population unwilling to fight? What would be the fate of the rest of Ukraine? And perhaps more pertinently for us in Europe, how soon before we can regain access to Russia's vast resources?

[mishkin]

It appears that even Politico is now acknowledging that Ukraine is heading for defeat:
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-...ng-russia-war/

Welcome Politico to the land of plain obvious. In other earth-shattering for your journalists news... the sky is blue.

A question that arises now is how can this war be concluded? A few years back I could see a negotiated settlement that would leave Ukraine mostly intact, like the one that was being originally negotiated shortly after the Russians entered Ukraine. Had Zelensky settled then, Ukraine would have been spared much destruction and suffered smaller territorial losses. Now, I doubt the Russians would be willing to settle for that little. Not after all this effort and all the losses they suffered. So what would be enough now?

I don't have a clear endgame in mind now, I don't believe Russia would be interested in conquering Ukraine as a whole, but aside from the 4 oblasts (+ Crimea) they have formally annexed, do they have designs for further territory? If yes, how much? What would the cost be? What kind of resistance can Ukraine realistically offer at this stage with the west's ammunition and materiel largely depleted and their own population unwilling to fight? What would be the fate of the rest of Ukraine? And perhaps more pertinently for us in Europe, how soon before we can regain access to Russia's vast resources?

Europe should have learned a couple of things from this war, one of the most important being not to depend on "Russia's vast resources" (gas). Better to negotiate with North African states than to depend on fascist megalomaniacs

[Alastor]

Europe should have learned a couple of things from this war, one of the most important being not to depend on "Russia's vast resources" (gas). Better to negotiate with North African states than to depend on fascist megalomaniacs

Fascist megalomaniacs can be quite reliable partners. It's why the west has been keen on installing them. Most certainly Europe should diversify as much as possible. Russia as an extra possible source is great. I said regain access to their vast resources, not become reliant to them.

[mishkin]

Fascist megalomaniacs can be quite reliable partners. It's why the west has been keen on installing them.

this is a great answer, but I don't think we can say that Russia was/is one of those fascist states established/maintained by the West.

Most certainly Europe should diversify as much as possible. Russia as an extra possible source is great. I said regain access to their vast resources, not become reliant to them.

Russia as plan B or C, okay. I would rep you twice if I could

[PointOfViewGun]

It appears that even Politico is now acknowledging that Ukraine is heading for defeat:
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-...ng-russia-war/

Welcome Politico to the land of plain obvious. In other earth-shattering for your journalists news... the sky is blue.

A question that arises now is how can this war be concluded? A few years back I could see a negotiated settlement that would leave Ukraine mostly intact, like the one that was being originally negotiated shortly after the Russians entered Ukraine. Had Zelensky settled then, Ukraine would have been spared much destruction and suffered smaller territorial losses. Now, I doubt the Russians would be willing to settle for that little. Not after all this effort and all the losses they suffered. So what would be enough now?

I don't have a clear endgame in mind now, I don't believe Russia would be interested in conquering Ukraine as a whole, but aside from the 4 oblasts (+ Crimea) they have formally annexed, do they have designs for further territory? If yes, how much? What would the cost be? What kind of resistance can Ukraine realistically offer at this stage with the west's ammunition and materiel largely depleted and their own population unwilling to fight? What would be the fate of the rest of Ukraine? And perhaps more pertinently for us in Europe, how soon before we can regain access to Russia's vast resources?

What's the point of boasting about a self-fulfilling prophecy?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

I don't have a clear endgame in mind now, I don't believe Russia would be interested in conquering Ukraine as a whole,

How are you still so naive? They want it all.

but aside from the 4 oblasts (+ Crimea) they have formally annexed, do they have designs for further territory? If yes, how much?

From Lisbon to Vladivostok.

What would the cost be? What kind of resistance can Ukraine realistically offer at this stage with the west's ammunition and materiel largely depleted and their own population unwilling to fight? What would be the fate of the rest of Ukraine? And perhaps more pertinently for us in Europe, how soon before we can regain access to Russia's vast resources?

The population is willing to fight, the alternative is death.